Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Tianqi Lithium Corporation HK$13.00, price HK$28.68, upside -54.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Tianqi Lithium Corporation for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range HK$18.56 – HK$78.33 · fair‑value band HK$9.11 – HK$16.91 · the HK$28.68 price screens above the HK$13.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Tianqi Lithium in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Tianqi Lithium is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Tianqi Lithium Corporation, a new energy materials company, engages in the production, processing, and sales of lithium chemical products in Australia, Chile, and China.
Show more
Tianqi Lithium Corporation, a new energy materials company, engages in the production, processing, and sales of lithium chemical products in Australia, Chile, and China. Its products include battery and industrial grade lithium carbonate, battery and industrial grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate, lithium chloride anhydrous, lithium metal, sodium sulfate, non-ferrous metal ash slag, aluminium silicon powder, sodium hypochlorite, and technical grade lithium spodumene. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Chengdu, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) currently trades at HK$28.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.00, 54.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$20.22 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$28.68 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.59, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$9.11 (bear) to HK$16.91 (bull), the price of HK$28.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tianqi Lithium Corporation reported revenue of 10.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was 451M CNY in FY2025, compounding −40.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$47.1B (≈ $6.0B) · P/E ratio 26.5 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.46 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −55%, 9696 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$0.8900 to HK$20.22). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$9.11Fair Value HK$13.00Bull HK$16.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−30.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−34.2% vs 0.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 30%
Compare Tianqi Lithium Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 708 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−54.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.5% · Above median
Return on assets28.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)115.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth98.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.11× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)24.23× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA55.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.56× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)85· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.00 versus a price of HK$28.68, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9696?
Our model-based fair value for Tianqi Lithium Corporation is HK$13.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$28.68.
What is the quality score of 9696?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$13.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$9.11, optimistic scenario HK$16.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tianqi Lithium Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$13.00, about −55% upside versus a price of HK$28.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$9.11, optimistic scenario HK$16.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$12.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Tianqi Lithium Corporation pay a dividend?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tianqi Lithium Corporation it is HK$13.00 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$28.68. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tianqi Lithium Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9696 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$28.68, fair value HK$13.00, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9696?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$28.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$13.00). For Tianqi Lithium Corporation the two are HK$15.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tianqi Lithium Corporation worth?
The market values Tianqi Lithium Corporation at about HK$47.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$28.68; our models calculate a fair value of HK$13.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9696?
Our models span a range for Tianqi Lithium Corporation: cautious scenario HK$9.11, base HK$13.00, optimistic HK$16.91 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$28.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9696?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$13.00 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 111.5 (reported for FY2025: 89.3). Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 1.1, P/S 24.2, EV/EBITDA 55.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 9696?
The PEG ratio of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is 2.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tianqi Lithium Corporation (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9696 from its 52-week high?
Tianqi Lithium Corporation trades at HK$28.68, about 58% below its 52-week high of HK$67.60 and 1% above the low of HK$28.50 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$13.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tianqi Lithium Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tianqi Lithium Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$28.68, calculated fair value HK$13.00 (−55%), Quality Score 52/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9696 calculated?
We run Tianqi Lithium Corporation through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$13.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Tianqi Lithium Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$28.68. Our model-based fair value is HK$13.00, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tianqi Lithium Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$16.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$9.11 to HK$16.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) come from?
Earnings per share at Tianqi Lithium Corporation grew +15.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +23.1 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate −7.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tianqi Lithium Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
The market capitalisation of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is HK$47.1B (≈ $6.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is 1.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Earnings per share at Tianqi Lithium Corporation are HK$1.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
The dividend yield of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is 4.2% (payout 83.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
The net margin of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is 21.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
The operating margin of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is 59.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Revenue at Tianqi Lithium Corporation is growing +98.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −36.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696)?
Earnings per share at Tianqi Lithium Corporation are growing +17.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) generate?
The free cash flow of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is −HK$584M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tianqi Lithium Corporation (9696) carry?
The net debt of Tianqi Lithium Corporation is HK$11.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Tianqi Lithium Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts Tianqi Lithium Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
