Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd HK$8.31, price HK$8.98, upside -7.5%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range HK$5.15 – HK$18.94 · fair‑value band HK$5.82 – HK$12.21 · the HK$8.98 price screens above the HK$8.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, provides intra-city on-demand delivery services in the People's Republic of China.
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Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, provides intra-city on-demand delivery services in the People's Republic of China. It covers the delivery of food, fresh produce, flowers, cakes and desserts, other groceries, apparel, jewelry, cosmetics, 3C electronics, as well as personal errands services, and task-based government and enterprise services, etc. The company offers software development and information technology services; procures equipment; software as a service (SaaS) solutions; and intracity delivery services. It serves intra-city delivery for merchants, and consumers, and last-mile delivery primarily for logistics companies. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Shenzhen S.F. Taisen Holding (Group) Co.,Ltd.
Stock analysis
Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699) currently trades at HK$8.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.31, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$16.25 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$8.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.81, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$5.82 (bear) to HK$12.21 (bull), the price of HK$8.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 22.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 8.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +29.4%/yr. Reported net income was 278M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$8.2B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1500 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.3% · Operating margin 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −7%, 9699 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$5.82Fair Value HK$8.31Bull HK$12.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1126 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.6%
’18
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’21
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +77.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+77.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → 1%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 206% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price and +15.0% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 213 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9699
Frequently asked questions
Is Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.31 versus a price of HK$8.98, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 9699?
Our model-based fair value for Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is HK$8.31 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.98.
What is the quality score of 9699?
Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.31 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.82, optimistic scenario HK$12.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.31, about −7% upside versus a price of HK$8.98 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$5.82, optimistic scenario HK$12.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9699 use?
Our models discount Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.50, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd that is +9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd grew +36.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (+9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.66 %: that much free cash flow Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd it is HK$8.31 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$8.98. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9699 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$8.98, fair value HK$8.31, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9699?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$8.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.31). For Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd the two are HK$0.6700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd at about HK$8.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$8.98; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9699?
Our models span a range for Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$5.82, base HK$8.31, optimistic HK$12.21 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$8.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9699?
Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$8.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 23.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 8.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9699 from its 52-week high?
Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd trades at HK$8.98, about 43% below its 52-week high of HK$15.71 and 27% above the low of HK$7.06 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$8.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$8.98, calculated fair value HK$8.31 (−7%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9699 calculated?
We run Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$8.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$8.98. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.31, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (HK$5.82 to HK$12.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
The market capitalisation of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is HK$8.2B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is 0.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd are HK$0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
The net margin of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is −4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
The operating margin of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
Revenue at Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is growing +42.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699)?
Earnings per share at Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd are growing +93.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd (9699) carry?
The net debt of Hangzhou Sf Intra City Industrial Co Ltd is 104M CNY (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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