Alpha HPA Limited (A4N) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$896M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Share price −16.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2550). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.1020 to A$0.2550) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3800 – A$1.22 · fair‑value band A$0.1020 – A$0.2550 · the A$0.5150 price screens above the A$0.1870 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Alpha HPA Limited (A4N) currently trades at A$0.5150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1870, implying the stock looks roughly 63.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$510K. Revenue grew 270.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -17.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$97.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.1020 (bear case) to A$0.2550 (bull case); at A$0.5150, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -64%, A4N screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.2000) versus Asset-Based (A$0.1000). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alpha HPA Limited, a specialty materials and technology company, focuses on the delivery and operation of the HPA First and Alpha Sapphire projects in Queensland.
Full company description
Alpha HPA Limited, a specialty materials and technology company, focuses on the delivery and operation of the HPA First and Alpha Sapphire projects in Queensland. It offers aluminium products for use in semiconductors, lithium-ion batteries, direct lithium extraction, synthetic sapphire glass for sapphire optics, power-semiconductors, and micro-led technology, as well as technical ceramics and specialty catalysts. The company was formerly known as Collerina Cobalt Limited and changed its name to Alpha HPA Limited in November 2018. Alpha HPA Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alpha HPA Limited reported revenue of A$318K in FY2025 versus A$38.7K in FY2021, a compound +69.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$32.6M in FY2025.
A4N screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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