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Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alpha Hpa Ltd A$0.06, price A$0.63, upside -90.5%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000033060

AH Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Alpha Hpa Ltd

A4N · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +80.7 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0595 · Strongly overvalued (−90.5%)
Quality 30/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/8)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.22 A$0.3800 Fair Value A$0.0595 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.3800 – A$1.22 · fair‑value band A$0.0340 – A$0.0680 · the A$0.6250 price screens above the A$0.0595 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Alpha HPA Limited, a specialty materials and technology company, focuses on the delivery and operation of the HPA First and Alpha Sapphire projects in Queensland.

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Alpha HPA Limited, a specialty materials and technology company, focuses on the delivery and operation of the HPA First and Alpha Sapphire projects in Queensland. It offers aluminium products for use in semiconductors, lithium-ion batteries, direct lithium extraction, synthetic sapphire glass for sapphire optics, power-semiconductors, and micro-led technology, as well as technical ceramics and specialty catalysts. The company was formerly known as Collerina Cobalt Limited and changed its name to Alpha HPA Limited in November 2018. Alpha HPA Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N) currently trades at A$0.6250, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0595, 90.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0340 (bear) to A$0.0680 (bull), the price of A$0.6250 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Alpha Hpa Ltd reported revenue of A$747K in FY2026 versus A$38.7K in FY2022, a compound +109.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$42.7M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$872M (≈ $606M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0300 · Return on equity −13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −17.4% · Operating margin −4,369% · Revenue (TTM) A$748K · Revenue growth (YoY) +96.7% · Free cash flow −A$201M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −90%, A4N screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0340 Fair Value A$0.0595 Bull A$0.0680
Price A$0.6250 · Upside -90.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1400 A$0.1900 A$0.2800 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1400 A$0.1900 A$0.2800 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+135.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+259.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+80.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +42.8% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−37,428.9% (2021) → −6,319.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

A4N screens overvalued: fair value 90% below the price. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 75 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −90.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −7.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 96.7% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.48× · Cheaper than median
PEG 3.55× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 99
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥16.28 ¥43.06 +164%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$21.16 HK$57.03 +170%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥8.88 ¥12.04 +36%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹977.00 ₹1,026 +5%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 80.10 kr 58.10 −27%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 7.46 MYR 8.21 MYR +10%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥26.03 ¥38.55 +48%
Alcoa Corporation AA $41.97 $40.16 −4%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥26.22 ¥32.01 +22%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥12.11 ¥35.21 +191%

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Alpha Hpa Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0595 −90%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alpha Hpa Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A4N

Frequently asked questions

Is Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0595 versus a price of A$0.6250, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of A4N?
Our model-based fair value for Alpha Hpa Ltd is A$0.0595 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.6250.
What is the quality score of A4N?
Alpha Hpa Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0595 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0340, optimistic scenario A$0.0680. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alpha Hpa Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0595, about −90% upside versus a price of A$0.6250 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0340, optimistic scenario A$0.0680. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
Alpha Hpa Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$748K (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alpha Hpa Ltd it is A$0.0595 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.6250. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alpha Hpa Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, A4N trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.6250, fair value A$0.0595, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A4N?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.6250); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0595). For Alpha Hpa Ltd the two are A$0.5655 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alpha Hpa Ltd worth?
The market values Alpha Hpa Ltd at about A$872M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.6250; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0595 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A4N?
Our models span a range for Alpha Hpa Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0340, base A$0.0595, optimistic A$0.0680 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.6250). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of A4N?
The PEG ratio of Alpha Hpa Ltd is 3.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alpha Hpa Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −13.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is A4N from its 52-week high?
Alpha Hpa Ltd trades at A$0.6250, about 33% below its 52-week high of A$0.9300 and 32% above the low of A$0.4750 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0595 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alpha Hpa Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Aluminum Corporation, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alpha Hpa Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.6250, calculated fair value A$0.0595 (−90%), Quality Score 30/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A4N calculated?
We run Alpha Hpa Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0595, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Alpha Hpa Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.6250. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0595, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alpha Hpa Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0680). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0340 to A$0.0680) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Alpha Hpa Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
The market capitalisation of Alpha Hpa Ltd is A$872M (≈ $606M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
Earnings per share at Alpha Hpa Ltd are A$−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alpha Hpa Ltd is −13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alpha Hpa Ltd is −17.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
The operating margin of Alpha Hpa Ltd is −4,369% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N)?
Revenue at Alpha Hpa Ltd is growing +96.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +259%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N) generate?
The free cash flow of Alpha Hpa Ltd is −A$201M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alpha Hpa Ltd (A4N) hold?
Alpha Hpa Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$85.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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