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Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, (AEFES) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · TR · Market cap 131B TRY

AE Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, AEFES · IS
Price22.08 TRY
Fair Value31.77 TRY
Upside+43.9%
Quality41/100
Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.5% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Narrow moat 33/100
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Evidence: Medium Range 23.83 TRY – 39.71 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price +7.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 44% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (23.83 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

29.68 TRY 1.77 TRY Fair Value 31.77 TRY Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1.77 TRY – 29.68 TRY · fair‑value band 23.83 TRY – 39.71 TRY · the 22.08 TRY price screens below the 31.77 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

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Analysis

Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, (AEFES) currently trades at 22.08 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 31.77 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 43.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, generated revenue of 248B TRY at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.1%. Net debt stands at 52.0B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 23.83 TRY (bear case) to 39.71 TRY (bull case); at 22.08 TRY, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 44%, AEFES screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 37.29 TRY 71.88 TRY 141.80 TRY 80
Residual Income 15.38 TRY 16.57 TRY 19.90 TRY 76
Rev-Margin DCF 41.13 TRY 88.42 TRY 172.14 TRY 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 39.83 TRY 64.35 TRY 142.44 TRY 38
Owner Earnings 5.02 TRY 15.16 TRY 36.46 TRY 31
5Y Revenue Exit 41.13 TRY 76.98 TRY 151.55 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 57.35 TRY 110.06 TRY 212.68 TRY 41
5Y P/E Exit 25.71 TRY 56.12 TRY 96.55 TRY 38
10Y Revenue Exit 39.55 TRY 96.16 TRY 137.70 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 53.14 TRY 130.52 TRY 275.42 TRY 37
10Y P/E Exit 30.15 TRY 63.47 TRY 119.37 TRY 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 10.29 TRY 71.74 TRY 100.67 TRY 54
Lynch FV 25.82 TRY 36.88 TRY 47.94 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 25.82 TRY 36.88 TRY 47.94 TRY 46
EPV 34.05 TRY 40.22 TRY 45.61 TRY 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 22.69 TRY 30.25 TRY 37.82 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 19.29 TRY 25.72 TRY 32.15 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 19.29 TRY 25.72 TRY 32.15 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 57.01 TRY 77.00 TRY 96.98 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 62.02 TRY 83.67 TRY 105.32 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 37.48 TRY 54.79 TRY 72.11 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.17 TRY 12.29 TRY 18.34 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 37.29 TRY 71.88 TRY 141.80 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 41.13 TRY 88.42 TRY 172.14 TRY 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 15.38 TRY 16.57 TRY 19.90 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 45.07 TRY 71.29 TRY 89.24 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 32.74 TRY 46.77 TRY 60.80 TRY 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (71.88 TRY) versus Asset-Based (12.29 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 248B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.6%
Net margin 3.5%
Return on equity 8.1%
Free cash flow 15.0B TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 15.0
More key figures
Operating margin 6.8%
EPS (TTM) 1.47 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) -11.0%
Net debt 52.0B TRY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 23
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, bottling, distribution, marketing, and sale of beer, malt, non-carbonated, and non-alcoholic beverages in Turkey and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Beer and Soft Drinks.

Full company description

Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, bottling, distribution, marketing, and sale of beer, malt, non-carbonated, and non-alcoholic beverages in Turkey and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Beer and Soft Drinks. It offers carbonated and low alcoholic drinks, water, fruit juice concentrates, purees and fresh fruit. The company also leases intellectual property and related products; and provides a range of sparkling and still beverages under the Coca-Cola Company trademark. Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, reported revenue of 244B TRL in FY2025 versus 39.3B TRL in FY2021, a compound +57.8%/yr. Reported net income was 9.0B TRL in FY2025, compounding +70.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
244B TRY
Latest YoY
−19.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+39.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+55.6%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
−24.9%
Revenue +57.8%/yr
FY21 39.3B TRL
FY22 90.5B TRL
FY23 231B TRL
FY24 303B TRL
FY25 244B TRL
Net income +70.2%/yr
FY21 1.1B TRL
FY22 3.4B TRL
FY23 31.9B TRL
FY24 17.2B TRL
FY25 9.0B TRL

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AEFES

Peer Group

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 91 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +44% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.50× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.20× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.32× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 92 · sector 27
FUTURE 38 · sector 46
PAST 33 · sector 48
HEALTH 75 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Coca-Cola Company KO $81.56 $39.92 -51%
PepsiCo, Inc PEP $137.38 $106.91 -22%
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST $97.50 $35.82 -63%
Nongfu Spring Co 9633 HK$41.44 HK$30.72 -26%
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP €92.10 €85.41 -7%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP $31.25 $30.99 -1%
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF $102.04 $106.45 +4%
Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE €57.90 €52.82 -9%
Varun Beverages Limited VBL ₹495.70 ₹187.49 -62%
Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 ¥124.43 ¥107.57 -14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, (AEFES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 31.77 TRY versus a price of 22.08 TRY, about +44% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AEFES?
Our model-based fair value for Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, is 31.77 TRY (as of Aug 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 22.08 TRY.
What is the quality score of AEFES?
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, has a Quality Score of 41/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, (AEFES)?
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 248B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 4, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AEFES?
The net profit margin of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, is about 3.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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