Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, bottling, distribution, marketing, and sale of beer, malt, non-carbonated, and non-alcoholic beverages in Turkey and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Beer and Soft Drinks.
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Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, bottling, distribution, marketing, and sale of beer, malt, non-carbonated, and non-alcoholic beverages in Turkey and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Beer and Soft Drinks. It offers carbonated and low alcoholic drinks, water, fruit juice concentrates, purees and fresh fruit. The company also leases intellectual property and related products; and provides a range of sparkling and still beverages under the Coca-Cola Company trademark. Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES) currently trades at 19.08 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 40.52 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 52.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 71.88 TRY per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 19.08 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.29 TRY, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 26.76 TRY (bear) to 56.32 TRY (bull), the price of 19.08 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS reported revenue of 244B TRL in FY2025 versus 39.3B TRL in FY2021, a compound +57.8%/yr. Reported net income was 9.0B TRL in FY2025, compounding +70.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 131B TRY (≈ $2.7B) · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) 1.47 TRY · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 112%, AEFES screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 26.76 TRYFair Value 40.52 TRYBull 56.32 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.05 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.6%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+126% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Below median
Return on assets5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AEFES
Frequently asked questions
Is Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 40.52 TRY versus a price of 19.08 TRY, about +112% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AEFES?
Our model-based fair value for Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 40.52 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 19.08 TRY.
What is the quality score of AEFES?
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 40.52 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 26.76 TRY, optimistic scenario 56.32 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 40.52 TRY, about +112% upside versus a price of 19.08 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 26.76 TRY, optimistic scenario 56.32 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 248B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +55.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AEFES use?
Our models discount Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS that is +4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS grew +55.6 % a year. The price currently implies +4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (+4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.31 %: that much free cash flow Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS it is 40.52 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 19.08 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AEFES trades below its calculated fair value: price 19.08 TRY, fair value 40.52 TRY, a gap of about +112% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AEFES?
No. The price is what the market pays today (19.08 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (40.52 TRY). For Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS the two are 21.44 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS at about 131B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 19.08 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 40.52 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AEFES?
Our models span a range for Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 26.76 TRY, base 40.52 TRY, optimistic 56.32 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 19.08 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AEFES?
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 40.52 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AEFES?
The PEG ratio of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 1.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AEFES from its 52-week high?
Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS trades at 19.08 TRY, about 17% below its 52-week high of 23.09 TRY and 44% above the low of 13.26 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 40.52 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 19.08 TRY, calculated fair value 40.52 TRY (+112%), Quality Score 27/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AEFES calculated?
We run Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 40.52 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS currently trades 112 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
The closing price on Sep 17, 2026 was 19.08 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 40.52 TRY, about +112% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (27/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (26.76 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (26.76 TRY to 56.32 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
The market capitalisation of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 131B TRY (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
Earnings per share at Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS are 1.47 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
The net margin of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
The operating margin of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
Revenue at Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +39.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES)?
Earnings per share at Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS are growing −11.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS (AEFES) carry?
The net debt of Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi AS is 52.0B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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