American Eagle Outfitters, Inc (AEO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.8B
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc
AEO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $35.50 to $25.20 (−29.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 40% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.32 to $31.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.77 – $32.52 · fair‑value band $16.32 – $31.51 · the $17.97 price screens below the $25.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc (AEO) currently trades at $17.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.20, implying the stock looks roughly 40.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc generated revenue of $5.7B at a net margin of 5.0%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.32 (bear case) to $31.51 (bull case); at $17.97, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 40%, AEO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($25.20) versus Asset-Based ($6.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a multi-brand specialty retailer in the United States and internationally. It provides jeans, apparel and accessories, and personal care products for women and men under the American Eagle brand; and intimates, apparel, activewear, and swim collections under the Aerie and OFFLINE by Aerie brands.
Full company description
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a multi-brand specialty retailer in the United States and internationally. It provides jeans, apparel and accessories, and personal care products for women and men under the American Eagle brand; and intimates, apparel, activewear, and swim collections under the Aerie and OFFLINE by Aerie brands. The company also offers menswear products under the Todd Snyder New York brand; and fashion clothing and accessories under the Unsubscribed brand. It sells its products through its own and licensed retail stores, concession-based shops-within-shops, wholesale markets, and online marketplaces; and digital channels, such as www.ae.com, www.aerie.com, www.toddsnyder.com, and www.unsubscribed.com. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2026 versus $5.0B in FY2022, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was $192M in FY2026, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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