AIRO Group (AIRO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $262M
AIRO Group
AIRO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +28.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range $5.85 – $31.00 · fair‑value band $2.76 – $3.86 · the $8.52 price screens above the $3.16 fair value. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
AIRO Group (AIRO) currently trades at $8.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.16, implying the stock looks roughly 62.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, AIRO Group generated revenue of $88.0M at a net margin of -20.0%. Revenue declined 24.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $68.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.76 (bear case) to $3.86 (bull case); at $8.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -63%, AIRO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($15.75) versus DCF Models ($6.11). Highest evidence: NCAV (Graham) (50).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc., a multi-faceted advanced Aerospace and Defense company in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Drones, Avionics, Training, and Electric Air Mobility. Its Drones segment develops, manufactures, and sells drones.
Full company description
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc., a multi-faceted advanced Aerospace and Defense company in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Drones, Avionics, Training, and Electric Air Mobility. Its Drones segment develops, manufactures, and sells drones. The Avionics segment develops, manufactures, and sells avionics for military and general aviation aircraft, drones, and eVTOLs. This segment offers flight displays, connected panels, and GPS/GNSS sensors. The Training segment currently provides military pilot training, which includes adversary air, close air support, ISR, aircraft leasing, pilot training, ground liaison services, and JTAC, as well as full joint theatre ISR and simulated ground strike training and consulting services. Its Electric Air Mobility segment develops a rotorcraft eVTOL for cargo applications through our Jaunt brand. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AIRO Group reported revenue of $90.9M in FY2025 versus $11.8M in FY2021, a compound +66.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.1M in FY2025.
AIRO screens 63% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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