Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $49.0B · ISIN US04626A1034
Astera Labs, Inc.
ALAB · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from $21.73 to $21.47 (−1.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +15.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 1,248% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $36.37 – $483.02 · fair‑value band $16.10 – $26.84 · the $289.47 price screens above the $21.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) currently trades at $289.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.47, implying the stock looks roughly 92.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Astera Labs, Inc. generated revenue of $1.0B at a net margin of 26.7%. Revenue grew 93.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $132M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.10 (bear case) to $26.84 (bull case); at $289.47, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 241% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -93%, ALAB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.96 USD per share, which is 4.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($63.84) versus Asset-Based ($5.27). Highest evidence: EPV (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Astera Labs, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure in Taiwan and the United States. It offers an intelligent connectivity platform, comprised of semiconductor-based, high-speed, mixed-signal connectivity products that integrate a matrix of microcontrollers and sensors, and COSMOS.
Full company description
Astera Labs, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure in Taiwan and the United States. It offers an intelligent connectivity platform, comprised of semiconductor-based, high-speed, mixed-signal connectivity products that integrate a matrix of microcontrollers and sensors, and COSMOS. The company provides COSMOS software suite, a connectivity system management and optimization software that enables management and optimization of resources for large fleets at cloud-scale via link, fleet, and RAS management capabilities. In addition, it offers PCIe/CXL smart DSP retimers and cable modules; ethernet smart cable modules for cloud and AI infrastructure; CXL memory connectivity controllers; and smart fabric switches. The company serves hyperscalers and system original equipment manufacturers. Astera Labs, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Astera Labs, Inc. reported revenue of $853M in FY2025 versus $79.9M in FY2022, a compound +120.2%/yr. Reported net income was $219M in FY2025.
ALAB screens 1,248% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Should Stronger Analyst Focus On Earnings Power In Astera Labs’ AI Story (ALAB) Require Action From Investors?
- Astera Labs (ALAB) Stock May Trade At A Premium Following Its 61% Run
- Is Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) Stock Outpacing Its Computer and Technology Peers This Year?
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $227.98 | $98.98 | -57% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $427.30 | $296.10 | -31% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $371.54 | $118.27 | -68% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,730,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | -14% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $932.86 | $148.38 | -84% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $476.67 | $55.02 | -88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $92.09 | $35.41 | -62% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $266.54 | $78.54 | -71% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM | $164.78 | $147.20 | -11% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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