Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Astera Labs, Inc. $62.28, price $300, upside -79.3%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range $36.37 – $483.02 · fair‑value band $38.10 – $110.16 · the $300.28 price screens above the $62.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Astera Labs, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure in Taiwan and the United States.
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It offers an intelligent connectivity platform, comprised of semiconductor-based, high-speed, mixed-signal connectivity products that integrate a matrix of microcontrollers and sensors, and COSMOS. The company provides COSMOS software suite, a connectivity system management and optimization software that enables management and optimization of resources for large fleets at cloud-scale via link, fleet, and RAS management capabilities.
In addition, it offers PCIe/CXL smart DSP retimers and cable modules; ethernet smart cable modules for cloud and AI infrastructure; CXL memory connectivity controllers; and smart fabric switches. The company serves hyperscalers and system original equipment manufacturers.
Astera Labs, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) currently trades at $300.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $62.28, 79.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $63.84 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $300.28 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.17, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $38.10 (bear) to $110.16 (bull), the price of $300.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Astera Labs, Inc. reported revenue of $853M in FY2025 versus $79.9M in FY2022, a compound +120.2%/yr. Reported net income was $219M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $62.5B · P/E ratio 148.7 · P/S ratio 38.2 · EPS (TTM) $2.02 · Net margin 25.7% · Return on equity 25.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.8% · Operating margin 22.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 199% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −79%, ALAB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($5.27 to $63.85). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$38.10Fair Value $62.28Bull$110.16
Price $300.28 · Upside -79.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.59 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV$9.53$10.96$12.2170
FCF DCF$28.30$43.98$93.9068
Growth DCF$26.68$52.00$93.4967
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$28.30$43.98$93.9068
Owner Earnings$18.02$39.76$85.4263
5Y Revenue Exit$15.81$24.67$43.0463
5Y EBITDA Exit$19.04$31.20$54.9965
5Y P/E Exit$28.48$62.68$109.3260
10Y Revenue Exit$19.29$36.57$46.1160
10Y EBITDA Exit$22.06$43.53$79.5458
10Y P/E Exit$28.95$63.85$121.3354
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$8.59$59.90$84.0659
Lynch FV$30.95$44.21$57.4757
PEG = 1.0$30.95$44.21$57.4753
EPV$9.53$10.96$12.2170
Multiples
P/E Multiple$26.53$35.37$44.2163
P/S Multiple$16.10$21.47$26.8458
P/B Multiple$16.10$21.47$26.8455
EV/EBIT$18.96$24.96$30.9663
EV/EBITDA$14.99$19.67$24.3464
EV/Revenue$10.06$13.96$17.8651
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.93$5.27$7.8651
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$26.68$52.00$93.4967
Rev-Margin DCF$17.23$28.11$51.0362
Economic Profit
Residual Income$8.40$11.17$18.4963
ROIC Compounder$11.61$15.99$20.0566
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$44.69$63.84$82.9963
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+115.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+120.2%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−75.4% (2022) → 20.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+58.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +57.7% a year for the price and +54.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High margins and cash generation point to possible pricing strength while most categories lack durable public signals and multiple data gaps persist.
Main risk: Unproven sustainability could erode the high margins and cash generation in the signal conditioning semiconductor business.
Astera Labs has expanded its Aries portfolio with the first PCIe 7 signal conditioning solutions that span copper and optical interconnects for multi-rack AI systems. The new products support reaches beyond 50 meters and begin sampling later this year. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will this optical step meaningfully widen its role in hyperscale connectivity, or will it mainly reinforce the existing retimer-driven position?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 346 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−79.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth104.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)148.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B45.87× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)52.04× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow222.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 93
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Astera Labs, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALAB
Frequently asked questions
Is Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $62.28 versus a price of $300.28, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALAB?
Our model-based fair value for Astera Labs, Inc. is $62.28 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $300.28.
What is the quality score of ALAB?
Astera Labs, Inc. has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $62.28 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.10, optimistic scenario $110.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Astera Labs, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $62.28, about −79% upside versus a price of $300.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $38.10, optimistic scenario $110.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
Astera Labs, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Astera Labs, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +61.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +120.2 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALAB use?
Our models discount Astera Labs, Inc. at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 3.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Astera Labs, Inc. that is +61.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Astera Labs, Inc. grew +120.2 % a year. The price currently implies +61.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Astera Labs, Inc. (+61.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.51 %: that much free cash flow Astera Labs, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Astera Labs, Inc. it is $62.28 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of $300.28. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Astera Labs, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, ALAB trades above its calculated fair value: price $300.28, fair value $62.28, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($300.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($62.28). For Astera Labs, Inc. the two are $238.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Astera Labs, Inc. worth?
The market values Astera Labs, Inc. at about $62.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is $300.28; our models calculate a fair value of $62.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALAB?
Our models span a range for Astera Labs, Inc.: cautious scenario $38.10, base $62.28, optimistic $110.16 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price $300.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALAB?
Astera Labs, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 148.7 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $62.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 45.9, P/S 52.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Astera Labs, Inc. (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 25.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALAB from its 52-week high?
Astera Labs, Inc. trades at $300.28, about 38% below its 52-week high of $483.02 and 199% above the low of $100.27 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $62.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Astera Labs, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Astera Labs, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price $300.28, calculated fair value $62.28 (−79%), Quality Score 74/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALAB calculated?
We run Astera Labs, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $62.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Astera Labs, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $300.28. Our model-based fair value is $62.28, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Astera Labs, Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($110.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($38.10 to $110.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Astera Labs, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
The market capitalisation of Astera Labs, Inc. is $62.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Astera Labs, Inc. is 38.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
Earnings per share at Astera Labs, Inc. are $2.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 148.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
The net margin of Astera Labs, Inc. is 25.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Astera Labs, Inc. is 25.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Astera Labs, Inc. is −10.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
The operating margin of Astera Labs, Inc. is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
Revenue at Astera Labs, Inc. is growing +105% versus a year earlier (3y avg +120%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)?
Earnings per share at Astera Labs, Inc. are growing +186% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) hold?
Astera Labs, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $132M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Oct 13, 2026