Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A €3.18, price €5.99, upside -47.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.59 – €6.72 · fair‑value band €1.54 – €4.05 · the €5.99 price screens above the €3.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Alumil Aluminium Industry in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Alumil Aluminium Industry is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and production of aluminum architectural systems in Greece and internationally.
Show more
Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and production of aluminum architectural systems in Greece and internationally. The company offers hinged and sliding windows and doors; entrance, bi-folding, and fire resistant and heavy duty doors; shutter and rolling shutter, curtain wall and façade, office partition, solar shading, cladding, atrium and conservatory, customized fenestration, railing, pergola, decking, building integrated photovoltaics, and photovoltaic mounting systems; polycarbonate sheets; elevators; and noise barriers. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kilkis, Greece.
Stock analysis
Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY) currently trades at €5.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.18, implying the stock looks roughly 88.6% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €9.25 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the €5.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.88, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €1.54 (bear) to €4.05 (bull), the price of €5.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A reported revenue of €508M in FY2025 versus €315M in FY2021, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was €17.6M in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €194M · P/S ratio 0.36 · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1% · Operating margin 8.9% · Revenue (TTM) €508M · Revenue growth (YoY) +8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −47%, ALMY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €1.54Fair Value €3.18Bull €4.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.5% a year for the price.
Compare Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.44× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF39.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.2× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)41· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)67· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)59· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALMY
Frequently asked questions
Is Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.18 versus a price of €5.99, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALMY?
Our model-based fair value for Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is €3.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €5.99.
What is the quality score of ALMY?
Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.54, optimistic scenario €4.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.18, about −47% upside versus a price of €5.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.54, optimistic scenario €4.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €508M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +41.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALMY use?
Our models discount Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for Greece. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A that is +41.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies +41.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (+41.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.92 %: that much free cash flow Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A it is €3.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €5.99. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALMY trades above its calculated fair value: price €5.99, fair value €3.18, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€5.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.18). For Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A the two are €2.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A worth?
The market values Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A at about €194M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €5.99; our models calculate a fair value of €3.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALMY?
Our models span a range for Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A: cautious scenario €1.54, base €3.18, optimistic €4.05 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €5.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.9%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALMY from its 52-week high?
Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A trades at €5.99, about 11% below its 52-week high of €6.72 and 27% above the low of €4.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €5.99, calculated fair value €3.18 (−47%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALMY calculated?
We run Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €5.99. Our model-based fair value is €3.18, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€1.54 to €4.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
The market capitalisation of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is €194M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is 0.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
The net margin of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
The operating margin of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
Revenue at Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY)?
Earnings per share at Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A are growing +6.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A (ALMY) carry?
The net debt of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A is €134M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 23.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A in the live analysis
One click puts Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
