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Alumil Rom Industry S.A (ALU) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · RO · Market cap 87.5M RON

AR Alumil Rom Industry S.A ALU · RO
Price2.82 RON
Fair Value2.38 RON
Upside-15.6%
Quality53/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 5.6% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range 1.86 RON – 3.28 RON Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Share price +4.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Our model range runs from 1.86 RON (bear) to 3.28 RON (bull), base 2.38 RON. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

3.28 RON 0.5915 RON Fair Value 2.38 RON Feb 2021 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.5915 RON – 3.28 RON · fair‑value band 1.86 RON – 3.28 RON · the 2.82 RON price screens above the 2.38 RON fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Alumil Rom Industry S.A (ALU) currently trades at 2.82 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.38 RON, implying the stock looks roughly 15.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Alumil Rom Industry S.A generated revenue of 120M RON at a net margin of 5.6%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at 16.2M RON. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 1.86 RON (bear case) to 3.28 RON (bull case); at 2.82 RON, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -16%, ALU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 1.79 RON 1.88 RON 1.96 RON 76
ROIC Compounder 1.53 RON 1.70 RON 1.85 RON 72
Gordon GGM 1.18 RON 1.98 RON 2.57 RON 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 2.84 RON 3.94 RON 5.32 RON 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.36 RON 4.29 RON 5.71 RON 54
Lynch FV 0.9400 RON 1.34 RON 1.74 RON 50
PEG = 1.0 0.9400 RON 1.34 RON 1.74 RON 46
EPV 1.53 RON 1.70 RON 1.85 RON 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.18 RON 1.98 RON 2.57 RON 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.18 RON 1.79 RON 2.13 RON 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3.15 RON 4.20 RON 5.25 RON 63
P/S Multiple 2.55 RON 3.40 RON 4.25 RON 58
P/B Multiple 2.55 RON 3.40 RON 4.25 RON 55
EV/EBIT 3.39 RON 4.50 RON 5.61 RON 53
EV/EBITDA 3.97 RON 5.27 RON 6.58 RON 54
EV/Revenue 2.43 RON 3.45 RON 4.47 RON 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.15 RON 1.54 RON 2.30 RON 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1.79 RON 1.88 RON 1.96 RON 76
ROIC Compounder 1.53 RON 1.70 RON 1.85 RON 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2.62 RON 3.74 RON 4.86 RON 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (3.94 RON) versus Earnings-Based (1.34 RON). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 120M RON
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.5%
Net margin 5.6%
Return on equity 9.2%
Free cash flow −1.4M RON FY2025
P/E ratio 13.3
More key figures
Operating margin 7.4%
EPS (TTM) 0.2100 RON
EPS growth (YoY) +43.3%
Net debt 16.2M RON FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 58
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Alumil Rom Industry S.A. engages in the design and production of architectural aluminium systems in Romania and internationally.

Full company description

Alumil Rom Industry S.A. engages in the design and production of architectural aluminium systems in Romania and internationally. The company offers hinged windows and doors systems, sliding windows and doors systems, shutters and rolling shutters systems, bi-folding doors systems, entrance doors, curtain walls and façades systems, office partitions systems, solar shadings systems, claddings systems, atrium and conservatory systems, customized fenestration systems, railings systems, pergolas systems, decking systems, building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) systems, photovoltaic mounting systems, and noise barriers. It also provides wall cladding systems; building materials comprising various polycarbonate sheets and wood-plastic composites; polycarbonate sheets; aluminium systems for atriums, glass atrium roofs, skylights, and greenhouses; and railing systems. In addition, the company offers accessories, including window and door locks; door hinges; door handles; door mechanisms; other hardware; glass options; and surface treatments. Alumil Rom Industry S.A. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Bucharest, Romania. Alumil Rom Industry S.A. is a subsidiary of Alumil Aluminium Industry S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alumil Rom Industry S.A reported revenue of 119M RON in FY2025 versus 90.8M RON in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was 6.3M RON in FY2025, compounding +0.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
119M RON
Latest YoY
+5.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.3%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.0%
Revenue +7.0%/yr
FY21 90.8M RON
FY22 109M RON
FY23 118M RON
FY24 113M RON
FY25 119M RON
Net income +0.9%/yr
FY21 6.0M RON
FY22 6.5M RON
FY23 6.5M RON
FY24 5.3M RON
FY25 6.3M RON

ALU screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alumil Rom Industry S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALU

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −16% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.27× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 13 · sector 13
FUTURE 28 · sector 26
PAST 37 · sector 30
HEALTH 100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 33

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥18.54 ¥26.70 +44%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$24.54 HK$45.53 +86%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹955.80 ₹1,026 +7%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥8.11 ¥12.58 +55%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 84.96 kr 58.10 -32%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 8.02 MYR 3.88 MYR -52%
Alcoa Corporation AAI A$70.60 A$49.53 -30%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥25.12 ¥29.68 +18%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥25.51 ¥30.28 +19%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥11.99 ¥21.86 +82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alumil Rom Industry S.A (ALU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.38 RON versus a price of 2.82 RON, about −16% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALU?
Our model-based fair value for Alumil Rom Industry S.A is 2.38 RON (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 2.82 RON.
What is the quality score of ALU?
Alumil Rom Industry S.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alumil Rom Industry S.A (ALU)?
Alumil Rom Industry S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 120M RON (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALU?
The net profit margin of Alumil Rom Industry S.A is about 5.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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