Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A. (ALUA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AR · Market cap 2.9T ARS
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from 346.47 ARS to 115.54 ARS (−66.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (150.21 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (65.74 ARS to 150.21 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 36.42 ARS – 1,277 ARS · fair‑value band 65.74 ARS – 150.21 ARS · the 1,001 ARS price screens above the 115.54 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A. (ALUA) currently trades at 1,001 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 115.54 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 88.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A. generated revenue of 1.8T ARS at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue grew 28.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.0%. Net debt stands at 691B ARS. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 65.74 ARS (bear case) to 150.21 ARS (bull case); at 1,001 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -88%, ALUA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (367.85 ARS) versus Multiples (45.62 ARS). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. engages in the production and sale of aluminum products in Argentina and internationally. It operates in four segments: Primary Division; Processed Division; Energy Generation; and Engineering, Construction, and Industrial Assembly.
Full company description
Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. engages in the production and sale of aluminum products in Argentina and internationally. It operates in four segments: Primary Division; Processed Division; Energy Generation; and Engineering, Construction, and Industrial Assembly. The company offers ingots, bars, wire rods, and plates; value-added products, including profiles, bars, tubes, thick laminates, and foils; and zincalum. It also supplies energy; and markets energy from the wind farm. Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A. reported revenue of 1.6T ARS in FY2025 versus 84.7B ARS in FY2021, a compound +107.2%/yr. Reported net income was 7.5B ARS in FY2025, compounding +14.4%/yr from FY2021.
ALUA screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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