Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aluar Aluminio Argentino stock ARS 553, price ARS 774, that is 28.5% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 50.85 ARS – 1,277 ARS · fair‑value band 407.20 ARS – 787.21 ARS · the 774.00 ARS price screens above the 553.38 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. engages in the production and sale of aluminum products in Argentina and internationally. It operates in four segments: Primary Division; Processed Division; Energy Generation; and Engineering, Construction, and Industrial Assembly.
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The company offers ingots, bars, wire rods, and plates; value-added products, including profiles, bars, tubes, thick laminates, and foils; and zincalum. It also supplies energy; and markets energy from the wind farm.
Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Stock analysis
Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) currently trades at 774.00 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 553.38 ARS, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 3,978 ARS per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the 774.00 ARS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 123.01 ARS, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 407.20 ARS (bear) to 787.21 ARS (bull), the price of 774.00 ARS sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aluar Aluminio Argentino reported revenue of 2.9T ARS in FY2026 versus 172B ARS in FY2022, a compound +102.7%/yr. Reported net income was 259B ARS in FY2026, compounding +72.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 2.3T ARS (≈ $1.5B) Small · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) 92.39 ARS · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −29%, ALUA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear407.20 ARSFair Value 553.38 ARSBull787.21 ARS
Price 774.00 ARS · Downside -28.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (32.10 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF1,229 ARS1,534 ARS2,390 ARS78
Growth DCF1,163 ARS1,581 ARS2,249 ARS76
EPV658.74 ARS708.76 ARS746.34 ARS74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF1,229 ARS1,534 ARS2,390 ARS78
Owner Earnings610.53 ARS1,020 ARS1,620 ARS73
5Y Revenue Exit1,149 ARS1,791 ARS3,119 ARS68
5Y EBITDA Exit1,320 ARS2,135 ARS3,724 ARS70
5Y P/E Exit1,153 ARS2,204 ARS3,570 ARS66
10Y Revenue Exit1,142 ARS1,990 ARS2,402 ARS65
10Y EBITDA Exit1,236 ARS2,210 ARS3,764 ARS64
10Y P/E Exit1,162 ARS1,995 ARS3,233 ARS60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd628.25 ARS4,381 ARS6,149 ARS61
Lynch FV2,264 ARS3,234 ARS4,204 ARS59
PEG = 1.02,264 ARS3,234 ARS4,204 ARS55
EPV658.74 ARS708.76 ARS746.34 ARS74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM15.38 ARS21.10 ARS24.10 ARS67
DDM Multi-Stage15.38 ARS21.81 ARS22.92 ARS65
Multiples
P/E Multiple1,178 ARS1,571 ARS1,963 ARS63
P/S Multiple1,169 ARS1,558 ARS1,948 ARS58
P/B Multiple1,541 ARS2,054 ARS2,568 ARS55
EV/EBIT1,592 ARS2,188 ARS2,785 ARS66
EV/EBITDA1,346 ARS1,861 ARS2,376 ARS67
EV/Revenue892.96 ARS1,360 ARS1,828 ARS53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)81.19 ARS123.01 ARS153.76 ARS54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF1,163 ARS1,581 ARS2,249 ARS76
Rev-Margin DCF1,256 ARS2,049 ARS3,715 ARS68
Economic Profit
Residual Income522.35 ARS504.76 ARS541.93 ARS74
ROIC Compounder658.74 ARS708.76 ARS746.34 ARS70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E2,785 ARS3,978 ARS5,172 ARS65
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+86.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+107.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+102.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +74.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ARS ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ARS: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +73.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+72.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.72.6% vs 63.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 275% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about −10.5% a year for the price.
Compare Aluar Aluminio Argentino with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−28.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.2% · Above median
Return on assets6.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)22.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)72.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Is Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 553.38 ARS versus a price of 774.00 ARS, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALUA?
Our model-based fair value for Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 553.38 ARS (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 774.00 ARS.
What is the quality score of ALUA?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 553.38 ARS (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 407.20 ARS, optimistic scenario 787.21 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aluar Aluminio Argentino stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 553.38 ARS, about 29% lower versus a price of 774.00 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 407.20 ARS, optimistic scenario 787.21 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9T ARS (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Aluar Aluminio Argentino pay a dividend?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino currently shows a dividend yield of 0.38% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino pays a dividend of 2.96 ARS per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jan 2, 2026. The payout ratio is 3.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 60.49 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aluar Aluminio Argentino would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 20.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +102.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALUA use?
Our models discount Aluar Aluminio Argentino at 20.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aluar Aluminio Argentino that is +1.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (20.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aluar Aluminio Argentino grew +102.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aluar Aluminio Argentino (+1.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.13 %: that much free cash flow Aluar Aluminio Argentino produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (20.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aluar Aluminio Argentino it is 553.38 ARS per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 774.00 ARS. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aluar Aluminio Argentino stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ALUA trades above its calculated fair value: price 774.00 ARS, fair value 553.38 ARS, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALUA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (774.00 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (553.38 ARS). For Aluar Aluminio Argentino the two are 220.62 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aluar Aluminio Argentino worth?
The market values Aluar Aluminio Argentino at about 2.3T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 774.00 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 553.38 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALUA?
Our models span a range for Aluar Aluminio Argentino: cautious scenario 407.20 ARS, base 553.38 ARS, optimistic 787.21 ARS per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 774.00 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALUA?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 553.38 ARS is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 15.4. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aluar Aluminio Argentino (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALUA from its 52-week high?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino trades at 774.00 ARS, about 31% below its 52-week high of 1,124 ARS and 9% above the low of 710.50 ARS (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 553.38 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aluar Aluminio Argentino?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Aluminum Corporation, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aluar Aluminio Argentino stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 774.00 ARS, calculated fair value 553.38 ARS (−29%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALUA calculated?
We run Aluar Aluminio Argentino through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 553.38 ARS builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Aluar Aluminio Argentino itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 774.00 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 553.38 ARS, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aluar Aluminio Argentino right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (407.20 ARS to 787.21 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Aluar Aluminio Argentino
How large is the market capitalisation of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The market capitalisation of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 2.3T ARS (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 0.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Earnings per share at Aluar Aluminio Argentino are 92.39 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The dividend yield of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 0.4% (payout 3.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The net margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 8.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is −3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The operating margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Revenue at Aluar Aluminio Argentino is growing +72.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +107%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Earnings per share at Aluar Aluminio Argentino are growing +318% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) carry?
The net debt of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 554B ARS (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026