Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aluar Aluminio Argentino ARS 116, price ARS 842, upside -86.3%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 38.76 ARS – 1,277 ARS · fair‑value band 80.88 ARS – 115.54 ARS · the 842.00 ARS price screens above the 115.54 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. engages in the production and sale of aluminum products in Argentina and internationally. It operates in four segments: Primary Division; Processed Division; Energy Generation; and Engineering, Construction, and Industrial Assembly.
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Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. engages in the production and sale of aluminum products in Argentina and internationally. It operates in four segments: Primary Division; Processed Division; Energy Generation; and Engineering, Construction, and Industrial Assembly. The company offers ingots, bars, wire rods, and plates; value-added products, including profiles, bars, tubes, thick laminates, and foils; and zincalum. It also supplies energy; and markets energy from the wind farm. Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Stock analysis
Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) currently trades at 842.00 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 115.54 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 628.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 367.85 ARS per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 842.00 ARS price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 45.62 ARS, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 80.88 ARS (bear) to 115.54 ARS (bull), the price of 842.00 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aluar Aluminio Argentino reported revenue of 1.6T ARS in FY2025 versus 84.7B ARS in FY2021, a compound +107.2%/yr. Reported net income was 7.5B ARS in FY2025, compounding +14.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 2.9T ARS (≈ $2.0B) · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) −20.27 ARS · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.1% · Operating margin 15.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −86%, ALUA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (45.62 ARS to 705.26 ARS). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 80.88 ARSFair Value 115.54 ARSBull 115.54 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+108.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+73.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ARS ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ARS: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+81.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+81.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 8%
Compare Aluar Aluminio Argentino with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth29% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
EV/EBITDA1.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 115.54 ARS versus a price of 842.00 ARS, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALUA?
Our model-based fair value for Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 115.54 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 842.00 ARS.
What is the quality score of ALUA?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 115.54 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 80.88 ARS, optimistic scenario 115.54 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aluar Aluminio Argentino stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 115.54 ARS, about −86% upside versus a price of 842.00 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 80.88 ARS, optimistic scenario 115.54 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8T ARS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Aluar Aluminio Argentino pay a dividend?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aluar Aluminio Argentino it is 115.54 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 842.00 ARS. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aluar Aluminio Argentino stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALUA trades above its calculated fair value: price 842.00 ARS, fair value 115.54 ARS, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALUA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (842.00 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (115.54 ARS). For Aluar Aluminio Argentino the two are 726.46 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aluar Aluminio Argentino worth?
The market values Aluar Aluminio Argentino at about 2.9T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 842.00 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 115.54 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALUA?
Our models span a range for Aluar Aluminio Argentino: cautious scenario 80.88 ARS, base 115.54 ARS, optimistic 115.54 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 842.00 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aluar Aluminio Argentino (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALUA from its 52-week high?
Aluar Aluminio Argentino trades at 842.00 ARS, about 25% below its 52-week high of 1,124 ARS and 32% above the low of 639.50 ARS (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 115.54 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aluar Aluminio Argentino?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aluar Aluminio Argentino stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 842.00 ARS, calculated fair value 115.54 ARS (−86%), Quality Score 32/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALUA calculated?
We run Aluar Aluminio Argentino through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 115.54 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aluar Aluminio Argentino itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 842.00 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 115.54 ARS, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aluar Aluminio Argentino right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (115.54 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Aluar Aluminio Argentino
How large is the market capitalisation of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The market capitalisation of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 2.9T ARS (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 1.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Earnings per share at Aluar Aluminio Argentino are −20.27 ARS. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The dividend yield of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 0.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The net margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is −4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
The operating margin of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Revenue at Aluar Aluminio Argentino is growing +28.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +109%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA)?
Earnings per share at Aluar Aluminio Argentino are growing −86.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) generate?
The free cash flow of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is −305B ARS (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA) carry?
The net debt of Aluar Aluminio Argentino is 691B ARS (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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