Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alucon Public Company Limited THB 234, price THB 256, upside -8.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Alucon Public Company Limited engages in producing and distributing aluminum containers primarily in Thailand. It operates in two segments, Can and Tube, and Slug. The company offers aluminum collapsible tubes; monobloc aerosol cans, and bottles; and rigid wall containers.
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Alucon Public Company Limited engages in producing and distributing aluminum containers primarily in Thailand. It operates in two segments, Can and Tube, and Slug. The company offers aluminum collapsible tubes; monobloc aerosol cans, and bottles; and rigid wall containers. It also provides technical impact extrusions, aluminum slugs, aluminum coils, aluminum pellets, strips, plates, etc. The company exports its products to various countries, including Japan, Australia, the United States, Indonesia, and South Africa. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Mueang Samut Prakan, Thailand. Alucon Public Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of TAKEUCHI PRESS INDUSTRIES CO., LTD.
Stock analysis
Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON) currently trades at 256.00 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 233.52 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 9.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 328.07 THB per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the 256.00 THB price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 116.49 THB, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 160.92 THB (bear) to 323.16 THB (bull), the price of 256.00 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alucon Public Company Limited reported revenue of 6.9B THB in FY2025 versus 5.7B THB in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B THB in FY2025, compounding +9.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.1B THB (≈ $331M) · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) 24.89 THB · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −9%, ALUCON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 160.92 THBFair Value 233.52 THBBull 323.16 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.53 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 54% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.2% a year for the price.
Compare Alucon Public Company Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alucon Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALUCON
Frequently asked questions
Is Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 233.52 THB versus a price of 256.00 THB, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALUCON?
Our model-based fair value for Alucon Public Company Limited is 233.52 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 256.00 THB.
What is the quality score of ALUCON?
Alucon Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 233.52 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 160.92 THB, optimistic scenario 323.16 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alucon Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 233.52 THB, about −9% upside versus a price of 256.00 THB (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 160.92 THB, optimistic scenario 323.16 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
Alucon Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.9B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alucon Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Alucon Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alucon Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALUCON use?
Our models discount Alucon Public Company Limited at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alucon Public Company Limited that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alucon Public Company Limited grew +7.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alucon Public Company Limited (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.69 %: that much free cash flow Alucon Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alucon Public Company Limited it is 233.52 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 256.00 THB. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alucon Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALUCON trades above its calculated fair value: price 256.00 THB, fair value 233.52 THB, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALUCON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (256.00 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (233.52 THB). For Alucon Public Company Limited the two are 22.48 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alucon Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Alucon Public Company Limited at about 11.1B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 256.00 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 233.52 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALUCON?
Our models span a range for Alucon Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 160.92 THB, base 233.52 THB, optimistic 323.16 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 256.00 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALUCON?
Alucon Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 233.52 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ALUCON?
The PEG ratio of Alucon Public Company Limited is 0.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alucon Public Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALUCON from its 52-week high?
Alucon Public Company Limited trades at 256.00 THB, about 2% below its 52-week high of 261.00 THB and 50% above the low of 170.96 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 233.52 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alucon Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alucon Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 256.00 THB, calculated fair value 233.52 THB (−9%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALUCON calculated?
We run Alucon Public Company Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 233.52 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alucon Public Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 256.00 THB. Our model-based fair value is 233.52 THB, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alucon Public Company Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (160.92 THB to 323.16 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON) come from?
Earnings per share at Alucon Public Company Limited grew −1.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.1 %, EBIT margin −6.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alucon Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The market capitalisation of Alucon Public Company Limited is 11.1B THB (≈ $331M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alucon Public Company Limited is 1.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
Earnings per share at Alucon Public Company Limited are 24.89 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The dividend yield of Alucon Public Company Limited is 6.3% (payout 64.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The net margin of Alucon Public Company Limited is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alucon Public Company Limited is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alucon Public Company Limited is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
The operating margin of Alucon Public Company Limited is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
Revenue at Alucon Public Company Limited is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON)?
Earnings per share at Alucon Public Company Limited are growing +22.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON) hold?
Alucon Public Company Limited holds more cash than debt, 1.3B THB net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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