Amplitude, Inc (AMPL) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $867M
Amplitude, Inc
AMPL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $7.09 to $4.22 (−40.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +27.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $5.61 – $84.80 · fair‑value band $3.16 – $5.28 · the $11.26 price screens above the $4.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Amplitude, Inc (AMPL) currently trades at $11.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.22, implying the stock looks roughly 62.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Amplitude, Inc generated revenue of $357M at a net margin of -25.1%. Revenue grew 16.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -35.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $71.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.16 (bear case) to $5.28 (bull case); at $11.26, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -63%, AMPL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($6.20) versus Asset-Based ($1.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Amplitude, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides an AI analytics platform that helps analyze customer behavior within digital products in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Amplitude, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides an AI analytics platform that helps analyze customer behavior within digital products in the United States and internationally. It offers Amplitude Analytics, which provides real-time insights into user behavior; Amplitude Session Replay, a tool that offers a qualitative perspective by reconstructing user journeys; Amplitude Feature Experimentation, which enables product, data, and engineering teams to build experiments; Amplitude Web Experimentation, a solution that reduces the need for engineering support and accelerates testing; Amplitude Activation, which resolves identity conflicts, streamlines data integration, and facilitates organizations to personalize and activate campaigns and experiences; Amplitude Guides and Surveys that helps companies to deploy in-product guides, tours, and surveys using the power of behavioral insights to fuel great results; Amplitude AI Agents, accomplish specific goals, such as increasing checkout conversions or feature adoption; Amplitude MCP, is a server enables teams to analyze product data, experiments, and user behavior using conversational AI; Amplitude AI Visibility gives marketers unprecedented insights into how their brand show up; Amplitude AI Feedback, is a feedback engine that uses proprietary large language models to convert raw user input into actionable insights; and Amplitude Automated Insights, is a replicates standard analysis process, executes chained tool calls, and it searches charts and reports to investigate experiments, campaigns, and product releases. It also provides customer support related to initial implementation setup, ongoing support services, and application training. It delivers its application over the Internet as a subscription service using a software-as-a-service model. It was formerly known as Sonalight, Inc. and changed to Amplitude, Inc. in December 2014. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Amplitude, Inc reported revenue of $343M in FY2025 versus $167M in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$88.5M in FY2025.
AMPL screens 63% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Klaviyo Demand Remains Resilient, Statsig Drives Amplitude Growth, ZoomInfo Recovery Still Unproven, Morgan Stanley Says
- NTTYY or AMPL: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- Amplitude Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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