AppFolio, Inc (APPF) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $6.2B
AppFolio, Inc
APPF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $67.34 to $65.43 (−2.8%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +12.6% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($180.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($49.08 to $180.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.26 – $321.25 · fair‑value band $49.08 – $180.28 · the $198.74 price screens above the $65.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
AppFolio, Inc (APPF) currently trades at $198.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.43, implying the stock looks roughly 67.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AppFolio, Inc generated revenue of $995M at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue grew 20.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $35.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $49.08 (bear case) to $180.28 (bull case); at $198.74, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -67%, APPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($148.98) versus Dividend Discount ($4.74). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AppFolio, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform for the real estate industry in the United States. The company provides a cloud-based platform that assist with accounting, reporting, marketing, leasing, maintenance, workflow automation, and communication services.
Full company description
AppFolio, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform for the real estate industry in the United States. The company provides a cloud-based platform that assist with accounting, reporting, marketing, leasing, maintenance, workflow automation, and communication services. It offers AppFolio Property Manager Core, a platform that provides the accounting functionalities for small property management companies, as well as serves as a system of record; AppFolio Property Manager Plus, which offers affordable housing and student housing, advanced accounting, advanced data analysis, and read-only API access services; and AppFolio Property Manager Max that provides customer relationship management tools and full database access through a read and write application programming interface services. The company also provides value-added services, such as electronic payment, tenant screening, maintenance, business optimization, resident, and risk mitigation services. It serves property managers, property investors, potential residents, residents, and vendors. AppFolio, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Santa Barbara, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AppFolio, Inc reported revenue of $951M in FY2025 versus $359M in FY2021, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was $141M in FY2025, compounding +242.2%/yr from FY2021.
APPF screens 67% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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