Arctic Falls AB (ARFA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 3, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arctic Falls AB stock SEK 74.80, price SEK 68.00, upside +10.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range kr 57.00 – kr 116.00 · fair‑value band kr 45.57 – kr 106.13 · the kr 68.00 price screens below the kr 74.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Arctic Falls AB (publ) engages in providing state-of-the-art testing facilities for the automotive and tyre industry. The company offers testing services for vehicles, components, and tires.
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It provides seven permanent testing facilities, five of which are outdoor and two indoors, providing access to a winter climate all year round.
It also offers vehicle testing support upon request, ranging from endurance driving to vehicle evaluation, data collection, mileage collection, and measurements.
In addition, the company facilitates Vintergatan, which provides a ground-based facility that offers a long and stable season, from mid-November until the end of March; plantskolan proving ground provides tyre testing and events on a land-based track, while Vidsel, Flurheden, and Nattberg proving grounds are contracted sites designed by customers for tyre testing.
Arctic Falls AB (publ) was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Älvsbyn, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Arctic Falls AB (ARFA) currently trades at kr 68.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 74.80, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 70.38 per share, and 5 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 68.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 11.79, and 17 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 45.57 (bear) to kr 106.13 (bull), the price of kr 68.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arctic Falls AB reported revenue of 159M SEK in FY2025 versus 112M SEK in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was 35.3M SEK in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 614M SEK (≈ $63.1M) Micro · P/S ratio 3.91 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 22.1% · Return on equity 23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.3% · Operating margin 29.4% · Revenue (TTM) 159M SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 10%, ARFA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 45.57Fair Value kr 74.80Bullkr 106.13
Price kr 68.00 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 32%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.82× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arctic Falls AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARFA
Frequently asked questions
Is Arctic Falls AB (ARFA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 74.80 versus a price of kr 68.00, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ARFA?
Our model-based fair value for Arctic Falls AB is kr 74.80 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 68.00.
What is the quality score of ARFA?
Arctic Falls AB has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 74.80 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 45.57, optimistic scenario kr 106.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arctic Falls AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 74.80, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 68.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 45.57, optimistic scenario kr 106.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
Arctic Falls AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 159M SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Arctic Falls AB pay a dividend?
Arctic Falls AB currently shows a dividend yield of 2.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arctic Falls AB would have to grow free cash flow by +12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARFA use?
Our models discount Arctic Falls AB at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arctic Falls AB that is +12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arctic Falls AB (ARFA) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Arctic Falls AB grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arctic Falls AB (+12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.33 %: that much free cash flow Arctic Falls AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arctic Falls AB it is kr 74.80 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of kr 68.00. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arctic Falls AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ARFA trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 68.00, fair value kr 74.80, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARFA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 68.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 74.80). For Arctic Falls AB the two are kr 6.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arctic Falls AB worth?
The market values Arctic Falls AB at about 614M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is kr 68.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 74.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARFA?
Our models span a range for Arctic Falls AB: cautious scenario kr 45.57, base kr 74.80, optimistic kr 106.13 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price kr 68.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arctic Falls AB (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 23.7%, debt of 0.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Arctic Falls AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arctic Falls AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price kr 68.00, calculated fair value kr 74.80 (+10%), Quality Score 64/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARFA calculated?
We run Arctic Falls AB through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 74.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Arctic Falls AB currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The closing price on Nov 3, 2026 was kr 68.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 74.80, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arctic Falls AB right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 45.57 to kr 106.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Arctic Falls AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The market capitalisation of Arctic Falls AB is 614M SEK (≈ $63.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arctic Falls AB is 3.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The dividend yield of Arctic Falls AB is 2.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The net margin of Arctic Falls AB is 22.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arctic Falls AB is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arctic Falls AB is 17.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
The operating margin of Arctic Falls AB is 29.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
Revenue at Arctic Falls AB is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arctic Falls AB (ARFA)?
Earnings per share at Arctic Falls AB are growing +18.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arctic Falls AB (ARFA) carry?
The net debt of Arctic Falls AB is 120M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 4, 2026