Aerostar Bacau (ARS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Aerostar Bacau RON 8.18, price RON 17.90, upside -54.3%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.04 RON – 19.80 RON · fair‑value band 4.78 RON – 13.00 RON · the 17.90 RON price screens above the 8.18 RON fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Aerostar S.A. engages in the manufacture, integration, upgrade, and maintenance of aviation and ground defense systems for the civil aviation industry in Romania and internationally. It offers aerostructures, components, and parts and subassemblies; and landing gear and hydraulic systems, as well as maintenance and repair services.
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Aerostar S.A. engages in the manufacture, integration, upgrade, and maintenance of aviation and ground defense systems for the civil aviation industry in Romania and internationally. It offers aerostructures, components, and parts and subassemblies; and landing gear and hydraulic systems, as well as maintenance and repair services. The company is also involved in the MRO and upgrades for military aircraft; and production and integration of electronic, communication, and IFF systems on ground, naval, and aerial platforms. In addition, it manufactures ground defense systems, such as rocket launchers, variants, and configurations; firing subsystem, reconnaissance and data subsystem, command and control system, and logistic support subsystem; and military equipment, including engineering equipment, self-propelled howitzers, and armored vehicles. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Bacau, Romania. Aerostar S.A. is a subsidiary of IAROM S.A.
Stock analysis
Aerostar Bacau (ARS) currently trades at 17.90 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 8.18 RON, implying the stock looks roughly 118.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 15.02 RON per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the 17.90 RON price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 2.59 RON, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 4.78 RON (bear) to 13.00 RON (bull), the price of 17.90 RON sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Aerostar Bacau reported revenue of 629M RON in FY2025 versus 307M RON in FY2021, a compound +19.6%/yr. Reported net income was 95.7M RON in FY2025, compounding +25.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.7B RON (≈ $588M) · P/E ratio 22.9 · P/S ratio 3.49 · EPS (TTM) 0.7800 RON · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 15.2% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −54%, ARS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.78 RONFair Value 8.18 RONBull 13.00 RON
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4300 RON per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+67.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Romania: IMF forecast 4.3% a year to 2030, 5.2% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +60.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Above median
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.95× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.91× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF51.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)76· sector 46
PAST (return on equity)68· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)39· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aerostar Bacau Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARS
Frequently asked questions
Is Aerostar Bacau (ARS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 8.18 RON versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of 17.90 RON, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARS?
Our model-based fair value for Aerostar Bacau is 8.18 RON (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): 17.90 RON.
What is the quality score of ARS?
Aerostar Bacau has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 8.18 RON (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.78 RON, optimistic scenario 13.00 RON. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aerostar Bacau stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 8.18 RON, about −54% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of 17.90 RON (overvalued). Cautious scenario 4.78 RON, optimistic scenario 13.00 RON. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Aerostar Bacau reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 649M RON (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Aerostar Bacau pay a dividend?
Aerostar Bacau currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aerostar Bacau would have to grow free cash flow by +67.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +19.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARS use?
Our models discount Aerostar Bacau at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Romania. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aerostar Bacau that is +67.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aerostar Bacau (ARS) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Aerostar Bacau grew +19.6 % a year. The price currently implies +67.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aerostar Bacau (ARS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aerostar Bacau (+67.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.42 %: that much free cash flow Aerostar Bacau produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aerostar Bacau it is 8.18 RON per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 17.90 RON. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aerostar Bacau stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ARS trades above its calculated fair value: price 17.90 RON, fair value 8.18 RON, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.90 RON); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (8.18 RON). For Aerostar Bacau the two are 9.72 RON per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aerostar Bacau worth?
The market values Aerostar Bacau at about 2.7B RON (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 17.90 RON; our models calculate a fair value of 8.18 RON per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARS?
Our models span a range for Aerostar Bacau: cautious scenario 4.78 RON, base 8.18 RON, optimistic 13.00 RON per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 17.90 RON). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARS?
Aerostar Bacau trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 8.18 RON is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aerostar Bacau (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARS from its 52-week high?
Aerostar Bacau trades at 17.90 RON, about 10% below its 52-week high of 19.80 RON and 105% above the low of 8.72 RON (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 8.18 RON is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aerostar Bacau?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aerostar Bacau stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 17.90 RON, calculated fair value 8.18 RON (−54%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARS calculated?
We run Aerostar Bacau through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 8.18 RON, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Aerostar Bacau itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at 17.90 RON. Our model-based fair value is 8.18 RON, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aerostar Bacau right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (13.00 RON). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (4.78 RON to 13.00 RON). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aerostar Bacau
How large is the market capitalisation of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The market capitalisation of Aerostar Bacau is 2.7B RON (≈ $588M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aerostar Bacau is 3.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Earnings per share at Aerostar Bacau are 0.7800 RON (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The dividend yield of Aerostar Bacau is 2.0% (payout 44.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The net margin of Aerostar Bacau is 15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aerostar Bacau is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aerostar Bacau is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The operating margin of Aerostar Bacau is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Revenue at Aerostar Bacau is growing +15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Earnings per share at Aerostar Bacau are growing +95.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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