Aerostar Bacau (ARS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 3, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aerostar Bacau stock RON 20.30, price RON 18.90, upside +7.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.36 RON – 19.80 RON · fair‑value band 13.30 RON – 29.82 RON · the 18.90 RON price screens below the 20.30 RON fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Aerostar S.A. engages in the manufacture, integration, upgrade, and maintenance of aviation and ground defense systems for the civil aviation industry in Romania and internationally.
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It offers aerostructures, components, and parts and subassemblies; and landing gear and hydraulic systems, as well as maintenance and repair services.
The company is also involved in the MRO and upgrades for military aircraft; and production and integration of electronic, communication, and IFF systems on ground, naval, and aerial platforms.
In addition, it manufactures ground defense systems, such as rocket launchers, variants, and configurations; firing subsystem, reconnaissance and data subsystem, command and control system, and logistic support subsystem; and military equipment, including engineering equipment, self-propelled howitzers, and armored vehicles.
The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Bacau, Romania. Aerostar S.A. is a subsidiary of IAROM S.A.
Stock analysis
Aerostar Bacau (ARS) currently trades at 18.90 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.30 RON, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 13.17 RON per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the 18.90 RON price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 2.68 RON, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 13.30 RON (bear) to 29.82 RON (bull), the price of 18.90 RON sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aerostar Bacau reported revenue of 630M RON in FY2026 versus 378M RON in FY2022, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was 98.0M RON in FY2026, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 2.9B RON (≈ $603M) Small · P/E ratio 20.1 · P/S ratio 4.11 · EPS (TTM) 0.9400 RON · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 19.8% · Return on equity 20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 7%, ARS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear13.30 RONFair Value 20.30 RONBull29.82 RON
Price 18.90 RON · Upside +7.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2134 RON per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Romania: IMF forecast 4.3% a year to 2030, 5.2% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+7.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.05× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.11× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)43.0× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aerostar Bacau Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARS
Frequently asked questions
Is Aerostar Bacau (ARS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 20.30 RON versus a price of 18.90 RON, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ARS?
Our model-based fair value for Aerostar Bacau is 20.30 RON (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18.90 RON.
What is the quality score of ARS?
Aerostar Bacau has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 20.30 RON (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.30 RON, optimistic scenario 29.82 RON. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aerostar Bacau stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 20.30 RON, about +7% upside versus a price of 18.90 RON (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 13.30 RON, optimistic scenario 29.82 RON. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Aerostar Bacau reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 701M RON (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Aerostar Bacau pay a dividend?
Aerostar Bacau currently shows a dividend yield of 1.85% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aerostar Bacau (ARS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aerostar Bacau pays a dividend of 0.35 RON per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.9%. The last ex-dividend date was May 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2010. The payout ratio is 37.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.26 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aerostar Bacau would have to grow free cash flow by +28.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARS use?
Our models discount Aerostar Bacau at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Romania. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aerostar Bacau that is +28.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aerostar Bacau (ARS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aerostar Bacau grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +28.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aerostar Bacau (ARS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aerostar Bacau (+28.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.33 %: that much free cash flow Aerostar Bacau produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aerostar Bacau it is 20.30 RON per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 18.90 RON. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aerostar Bacau stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ARS trades below its calculated fair value: price 18.90 RON, fair value 20.30 RON, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18.90 RON); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (20.30 RON). For Aerostar Bacau the two are 1.40 RON per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aerostar Bacau worth?
The market values Aerostar Bacau at about 2.9B RON (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 18.90 RON; our models calculate a fair value of 20.30 RON per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARS?
Our models span a range for Aerostar Bacau: cautious scenario 13.30 RON, base 20.30 RON, optimistic 29.82 RON per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 18.90 RON). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARS?
Aerostar Bacau trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 20.30 RON is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2021 to 2026), reported earnings: 17.8. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 16.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aerostar Bacau (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 20.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARS from its 52-week high?
Aerostar Bacau trades at 18.90 RON, about 5% below its 52-week high of 19.80 RON and 117% above the low of 8.72 RON (as of Nov 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 20.30 RON is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aerostar Bacau?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aerostar Bacau stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 18.90 RON, calculated fair value 20.30 RON (+7%), Quality Score 67/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARS calculated?
We run Aerostar Bacau through 22 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 20.30 RON builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aerostar Bacau currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The closing price on Nov 3, 2026 was 18.90 RON. Our model-based fair value is 20.30 RON, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aerostar Bacau right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (13.30 RON to 29.82 RON) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Aerostar Bacau
How large is the market capitalisation of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The market capitalisation of Aerostar Bacau is 2.9B RON (≈ $603M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aerostar Bacau is 4.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Earnings per share at Aerostar Bacau are 0.9400 RON (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The dividend yield of Aerostar Bacau is 1.9% (payout 37.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The net margin of Aerostar Bacau is 19.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aerostar Bacau is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aerostar Bacau is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
The operating margin of Aerostar Bacau is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Revenue at Aerostar Bacau is growing +35.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aerostar Bacau (ARS)?
Earnings per share at Aerostar Bacau are growing +81.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026