Arxis, Inc (ARXS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $17.3B
Arxis, Inc
ARXS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $7.39 to $6.96 (−5.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +39.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.74 to $10.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
4‑month range $34.05 – $59.99 · fair‑value band $4.74 – $10.39 · the $59.99 price screens above the $6.96 fair value. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Arxis, Inc (ARXS) currently trades at $59.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.96, implying the stock looks roughly 88.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arxis, Inc generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 20.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.5%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.74 (bear case) to $10.39 (bull case); at $59.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -88%, ARXS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($20.34) versus Multiples ($1.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arxis, Inc. designs and manufactures electronic and mechanical components for mission critical applications in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Electronic Components and Mechanical Components.
Full company description
Arxis, Inc. designs and manufactures electronic and mechanical components for mission critical applications in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Electronic Components and Mechanical Components. Its Electronic Components segment provides engineered electronic components and interconnect solutions, including connectors, cable assemblies, microelectronic packaging, radio frequency (RF) and microwave products, power products, sensors, capacitors. and resistors. The Mechanical Components segment offers precision and self-lubricating bearings, seals, springs, gaskets and ducting, and radar absorbing materials. It serves defense and space systems, commercial aerospace platforms, medical technology, semiconductor testing, analytical devices, industrial automation, and other specialized industrial sectors. The company was founded in 2019 and is based in Bloomfield, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arxis, Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $424M in FY2023, a compound +94.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$49.8M in FY2025.
ARXS screens 88% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 94/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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