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AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AUTO1 Group $4.84, price $17.68, upside -72.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
AUTO1 Group
ATOGF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $4.84 · Strongly overvalued (−72.6%)
!Quality 41/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +23.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 25/100
!The models disagree: range $3.05 to $12.14
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.48 – $49.42 · fair‑value band $3.05 – $12.14 · the $17.68 price screens above the $4.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
AUTO1 Group SE, a technology company, operates a digital automotive platform for buying and selling used cars online in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Merchant and Retail.
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AUTO1 Group SE, a technology company, operates a digital automotive platform for buying and selling used cars online in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Merchant and Retail. It is involved in the operation of AUTO1.com platform for the sale of used cars to commercial dealers; Autohero.com for the sale of used cars to private customers; and wirkaufendeinauto.de, an online platform to sell used cars to AUTO1. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Berlin, Germany.
Stock analysis
AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) currently trades at $17.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.84, 72.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $19.19 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $17.68 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.7600, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.05 (bear) to $12.14 (bull), the price of $17.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AUTO1 Group reported revenue of €8.2B in FY2025 versus €4.8B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was €77.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B · P/E ratio 45.3 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3% · Operating margin 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −73%, ATOGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.05
Fair Value $4.84
Bull $12.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2949 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$3.21
$3.62
$4.82
71
Owner Earnings
$6.64
$19.19
$44.56
69
Growth-Adj P/E
$8.60
$12.29
$15.97
67
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$6.64
$19.19
$44.56
69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.71
$18.89
$26.52
63
Lynch FV
$6.43
$9.18
$11.94
61
PEG = 1.0
$6.43
$9.18
$11.94
57
EPV
$0.1500
$0.7600
$1.28
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.57
$8.77
$10.96
63
P/S Multiple
$5.08
$6.77
$8.47
58
P/B Multiple
$5.08
$6.77
$8.47
55
EV/EBIT
$3.18
$5.46
$7.75
64
EV/EBITDA
$3.44
$5.82
$8.19
65
EV/Revenue
$0.9400
$2.92
$4.91
49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.81
$2.42
$3.62
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.21
$3.62
$4.82
71
ROIC Compounder
$0.1500
$0.7600
$1.28
66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$8.60
$12.29
$15.97
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Profitability
46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
54
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.2% (2019) → 1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
ATOGF screens overvalued: fair value 73% below the price. Compare with Carvana Co →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (40 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Christian Wallentin Steps Down as CFO of AUTO1 Group
- AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Growth in Sales and Profitability
Compare AUTO1 Group with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $63.62 | $25.27 | −60% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.84 | $229.90 | +13% |
| D'Ieteren Group DIE | €162.50 | €105.40 | −35% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 510.00 TWD | 558.82 TWD | +10% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $56.55 | $29.62 | −48% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $303.07 | $517.15 | +71% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHB | $55.19 | $45.83 | −17% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $166.98 | $410.20 | +146% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $34.82 | $30.57 | −12% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $28.92 | $11.84 | −59% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.84 versus a price of $17.68, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ATOGF?
Our model-based fair value for AUTO1 Group is $4.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.68.
What is the quality score of ATOGF?
AUTO1 Group has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.05, optimistic scenario $12.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AUTO1 Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.84, about −73% upside versus a price of $17.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.05, optimistic scenario $12.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
AUTO1 Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AUTO1 Group it is $4.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $17.68. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AUTO1 Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ATOGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.68, fair value $4.84, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATOGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.84). For AUTO1 Group the two are $12.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AUTO1 Group worth?
The market values AUTO1 Group at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $17.68; our models calculate a fair value of $4.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATOGF?
Our models span a range for AUTO1 Group: cautious scenario $3.05, base $4.84, optimistic $12.14 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $17.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ATOGF from its 52-week high?
AUTO1 Group trades at $17.68, about 50% below its 52-week high of $35.43 and at the low of $17.60 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AUTO1 Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AUTO1 Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $17.68, calculated fair value $4.84 (−73%), Quality Score 41/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATOGF calculated?
We run AUTO1 Group through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AUTO1 Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $17.68. Our model-based fair value is $4.84, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AUTO1 Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($3.05 to $12.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of AUTO1 Group
How large is the market capitalisation of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
The market capitalisation of AUTO1 Group is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of AUTO1 Group is 45.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AUTO1 Group is 0.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
Earnings per share at AUTO1 Group are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
The net margin of AUTO1 Group is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AUTO1 Group is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AUTO1 Group is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
The operating margin of AUTO1 Group is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
Revenue at AUTO1 Group is growing +25.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AUTO1 Group (ATOGF)?
Earnings per share at AUTO1 Group are growing −11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) generate?
The free cash flow of AUTO1 Group is −€485M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AUTO1 Group (ATOGF) carry?
The net debt of AUTO1 Group is €1.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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