Avantium N.V (AVTX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · NL · Market cap €178M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €43.91 to €5.61 (−87.2%) since Jul 14, 2026.
Below-average quality, and screening another 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (€3.57 to €7.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.77 – €29.39 · fair‑value band €3.57 – €7.49 · the €7.04 price screens above the €5.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Avantium N.V (AVTX) currently trades at €7.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.61, implying the stock looks roughly 20.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €14.6M. Revenue declined 34.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -21.9%. Net debt stands at €108M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €3.57 (bear case) to €7.49 (bull case); at €7.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -20%, AVTX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€39.70) versus Asset-Based (€4.05). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avantium N.V., a chemical technology company, develops and commercializes bio-based plastics and chemicals in the Netherlands. It operates through Avantium R&D Solutions and Avantium Renewable Polymers.
Full company description
Avantium N.V., a chemical technology company, develops and commercializes bio-based plastics and chemicals in the Netherlands. It operates through Avantium R&D Solutions and Avantium Renewable Polymers. The company offers Releaf, boasts barrier properties for carbon dioxide and oxygen that leads to longer shelf life of packaged products used for packaging, textiles, film, and PEF applications. It also provides furandicarboxylic acid (FDCA), a building block for the high-performance plant-based polymer polyethylene furanoate (PEF). In addition, the company offers YXY Technology which catalytically converts plant-based sugars into FDCA. Further, it is development and commercialization of the Dawn Technology, Parana Technology, and Volta Technology. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Avantium N.V reported revenue of €14.6M in FY2025 versus €10.9M in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€22.5M in FY2025.
AVTX screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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