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Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. (BAGFS) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · TR · Market cap 3.2B TRY

BB Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. BAGFS · IS
Price24.00 TRY
Fair Value19.97 TRY
Upside-16.8%
Quality20/100
Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -9.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 0/100
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Evidence: Medium Range 12.37 TRY – 26.16 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026

From 3 valuation models · updated today

Share price −6.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 17% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (12.37 TRY to 26.16 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

47.00 TRY 5.38 TRY Fair Value 19.97 TRY Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 5.38 TRY – 47.00 TRY · fair‑value band 12.37 TRY – 26.16 TRY · the 24.00 TRY price screens above the 19.97 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. (BAGFS) currently trades at 24.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.97 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. generated revenue of 4.2B TRY at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue declined 44.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.3%. Net debt stands at 2.0B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 12.37 TRY (bear case) to 26.16 TRY (bull case); at 24.00 TRY, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -17%, BAGFS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM 10.14 TRY 19.97 TRY 30.11 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 10.14 TRY 17.20 TRY 20.89 TRY 61
NCAV (Graham) 534.89 TRY 716.77 TRY 1,070 TRY 50
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 10.14 TRY 19.97 TRY 30.11 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 10.14 TRY 17.20 TRY 20.89 TRY 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 534.89 TRY 716.77 TRY 1,070 TRY 50

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (716.77 TRY) versus Dividend Discount (17.20 TRY). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.2B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) -44.7%
Net margin -9.1%
Return on equity -5.3%
Free cash flow 1.8M TRY FY2023
Operating margin -35.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -7.43 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +93.9%
Net debt 2.0B TRY FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 69
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey and internationally. The company offers chemical fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate; calcium ammonium nitrate; di ammonium phosphate; AS; sulphur composite fertilizer; sulphur zinc composite fertilizer; sulphur trioxide zinc NPK compound; and special formulations.

Full company description

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey and internationally. The company offers chemical fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate; calcium ammonium nitrate; di ammonium phosphate; AS; sulphur composite fertilizer; sulphur zinc composite fertilizer; sulphur trioxide zinc NPK compound; and special formulations. It also provides phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid, and other specialty products. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. reported revenue of 2.9B TRL in FY2023 versus 872M TRL in FY2019, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5B TRL in FY2023.

Growth Quality 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
2.9B TRY
Latest YoY
−25.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+40.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+51.9%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
−38.4%
Revenue +34.8%/yr
FY19 872M TRL
FY20 1.0B TRL
FY21 1.7B TRL
FY22 3.9B TRL
FY23 2.9B TRL
Net income
FY19 81.8M TRL
FY20 −41.2M TRL
FY21 155M TRL
FY22 1.1B TRL
FY23 −1.5B TRL

BAGFS screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAGFS

Peer Group

Agricultural Inputs · 181 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Return on assets -3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -36% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -45% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.27× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 37.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 0.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 11 · sector 20
FUTURE 0 · sector 35
PAST 0 · sector 24
HEALTH 87 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 33

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Corteva, Inc CTVA $86.07 $27.81 -68%
Nutrien Ltd NTR $67.10 $80.29 +20%
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥24.93 ¥21.26 -15%
CF Industries Holdings CF $119.19 $161.00 +35%
SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 122.90 SAR 127.31 SAR +4%
Yara International ASA YAR kr 451.30 kr 67.25 -85%
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥28.98 ¥42.12 +45%
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥42.59 ¥38.01 -11%
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹2,034 ₹1,129 -44%
UPL Limited UPL ₹594.75 ₹387.06 -35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. (BAGFS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 19.97 TRY versus a price of 24.00 TRY, about −17% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAGFS?
Our model-based fair value for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. is 19.97 TRY (as of Aug 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 24.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of BAGFS?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. has a Quality Score of 20/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. (BAGFS)?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BAGFS?
The net profit margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. is about -9.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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