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Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS TRY 3.59, price TRY 24.00, upside -85.0%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · TR · ISIN TRABAGFS91E2

BB Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS

BAGFS · IS

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 3.59 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 23/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +51.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

47.00 TRY 5.38 TRY Fair Value 3.59 TRY Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 5.38 TRY – 47.00 TRY · fair‑value band 3.28 TRY – 3.82 TRY · the 24.00 TRY price screens above the 3.59 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey and internationally. The company offers chemical fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate; calcium ammonium nitrate; di ammonium phosphate; AS; sulphur composite fertilizer; sulphur zinc composite fertilizer; sulphur trioxide zinc NPK compound; and special formulations.

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Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey and internationally. The company offers chemical fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate; calcium ammonium nitrate; di ammonium phosphate; AS; sulphur composite fertilizer; sulphur zinc composite fertilizer; sulphur trioxide zinc NPK compound; and special formulations. It also provides phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid, and other specialty products. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Stock analysis

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) currently trades at 24.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.59 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 568.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 23.33 TRY per share, and 0 of the 5 models we run sit above the 24.00 TRY price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 7.90 TRY, and 5 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 3.28 TRY (bear) to 3.82 TRY (bull), the price of 24.00 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS reported revenue of 2.9B TRL in FY2023 versus 872M TRL in FY2019, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5B TRL in FY2023.

Key figures

Market cap 3.2B TRY (≈ $66.4M) · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) −7.43 TRY · Net margin −52.3% · Return on equity −5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin −35.6% · Revenue (TTM) 4.2B TRY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −85%, BAGFS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 3.28 TRY Fair Value 3.59 TRY Bull 3.82 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 11.59 TRY 20.31 TRY 43.94 TRY 75
Growth DCF 11.01 TRY 22.39 TRY 42.99 TRY 74
5Y Revenue Exit 2.60 TRY 3.60 TRY 5.00 TRY 73
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 11.59 TRY 20.31 TRY 43.94 TRY 75
5Y Revenue Exit 2.60 TRY 3.60 TRY 5.00 TRY 73
10Y Revenue Exit 5.35 TRY 7.90 TRY 10.01 TRY 68
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 17.41 TRY 23.33 TRY 34.82 TRY 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 11.01 TRY 22.39 TRY 42.99 TRY 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 69
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.9%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−31.3% (2018) → −39.7% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2023 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BAGFS screens 568% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 177 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −36% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −45% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 37.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 0.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥39.75 ¥38.01 −4%
ICL Group ICL $5.40 $2.98 −45%
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹1,945 ₹1,129 −42%

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3.59 TRY −568%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAGFS

Frequently asked questions

Is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.59 TRY versus a price of 24.00 TRY, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAGFS?
Our model-based fair value for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 3.59 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 24.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of BAGFS?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.59 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.28 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.82 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.59 TRY, about −85% upside versus a price of 24.00 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.28 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.82 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS it is 3.59 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 24.00 TRY. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BAGFS trades above its calculated fair value: price 24.00 TRY, fair value 3.59 TRY, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAGFS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (24.00 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.59 TRY). For Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS the two are 20.41 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS worth?
The market values Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS at about 3.2B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 24.00 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 3.59 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAGFS?
Our models span a range for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS: cautious scenario 3.28 TRY, base 3.59 TRY, optimistic 3.82 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 24.00 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.3%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAGFS from its 52-week high?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS trades at 24.00 TRY, about 43% below its 52-week high of 41.78 TRY and 5% above the low of 22.92 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.59 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 24.00 TRY, calculated fair value 3.59 TRY (−85%), Quality Score 23/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAGFS calculated?
We run Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.59 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 24.00 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 3.59 TRY, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (3.82 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS

How large is the market capitalisation of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The market capitalisation of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 3.2B TRY (≈ $66.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 0.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Earnings per share at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS are −7.43 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The net margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is −52.3% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The operating margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is −35.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Revenue at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is growing −44.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Earnings per share at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS are growing +93.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) generate?
The free cash flow of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 1.8M TRY (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) carry?
The net debt of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 2.0B TRY (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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