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Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS stock TRY 7.18, price TRY 18.05, that is 60.2% below the price, quality 20 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials TR · ISIN TRABAGFS91E2

BB Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS logo Thin data Nov 3, 2026

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS

BAGFS · IS
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 60% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +18%, profit +94%.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +51.9 %/yr in TRY)
Thin margins · 3.8% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Fair value 7.18 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−60.2%)
Quality 20/100
Narrow moat 35/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

47.00 TRY 6.30 TRY Fair Value 7.18 TRY Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 6.30 TRY – 47.00 TRY · fair‑value band 6.56 TRY – 7.64 TRY · the 18.05 TRY price screens above the 7.18 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey and internationally.

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The company offers chemical fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate; calcium ammonium nitrate; di ammonium phosphate; AS; sulphur composite fertilizer; sulphur zinc composite fertilizer; sulphur trioxide zinc NPK compound; and special formulations.

It also provides phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid, and other specialty products. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Stock analysis

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) currently trades at 18.05 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.18 TRY, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 23.32 TRY per share, and 1 of the 5 models we run sit above the 18.05 TRY price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 3.59 TRY, and 4 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 6.56 TRY (bear) to 7.64 TRY (bull), the price of 18.05 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS reported revenue of 2.9B TRL in FY2023 versus 872M TRL in FY2019, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5B TRL in FY2023.

Key figures

Market cap 2.4B TRY (≈ $48.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) −733.38 TRY · Net margin −52.3% · Return on equity 2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 19.8% · Revenue (TTM) 4.5B TRY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −60%, BAGFS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 6.56 TRY Fair Value 7.18 TRY Bull 7.64 TRY
Price 18.05 TRY · Downside -60.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF 4.98 TRY 6.60 TRY 9.18 TRY 81
Growth DCF 5.14 TRY 6.50 TRY 8.55 TRY 80
5Y Revenue Exit 1.75 TRY 2.00 TRY 2.33 TRY 74
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 4.98 TRY 6.60 TRY 9.18 TRY 81
5Y Revenue Exit 1.75 TRY 2.00 TRY 2.33 TRY 74
10Y Revenue Exit 3.28 TRY 3.59 TRY 3.82 TRY 68
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 17.40 TRY 23.32 TRY 34.80 TRY 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 5.14 TRY 6.50 TRY 8.55 TRY 80

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 3
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 17
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 46
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 25
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 66
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 10
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.9%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−31.3% (2018) → −39.7% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2023 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BAGFS screens overvalued: fair value 60% below the price. Compare with Nutrien Ltd →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −60.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 2.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −16.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 3.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 19.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 18.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.52× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.54× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)91 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)9 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nutrien Ltd NTR $71.48 $83.09 +16% vs BAGFS
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥23.15 ¥26.81 +16% vs BAGFS
The Mosaic Company MOS $22.36 $25.77 +15% vs BAGFS
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥36.68 ¥38.01 +4% vs BAGFS
ICL Group ICL $4.68 $4.84 +3% vs BAGFS
Yara International ASA YAR kr 401.00 kr 409.02 +2% vs BAGFS
CF Industries Holdings CF $119.39 $114.88 −4% vs BAGFS
UPL Limited UPL ₹534.90 ₹478.29 −11% vs BAGFS
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥26.22 ¥17.67 −33% vs BAGFS
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹1,824 ₹1,129 −38% vs BAGFS

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Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAGFS

Frequently asked questions

Is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.18 TRY versus a price of 18.05 TRY, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAGFS?
Our model-based fair value for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 7.18 TRY (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18.05 TRY.
What is the quality score of BAGFS?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.18 TRY (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.56 TRY, optimistic scenario 7.64 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.18 TRY, about 60% lower versus a price of 18.05 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.56 TRY, optimistic scenario 7.64 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.5B TRY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS it is 7.18 TRY per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 18.05 TRY. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BAGFS trades above its calculated fair value: price 18.05 TRY, fair value 7.18 TRY, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAGFS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18.05 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.18 TRY). For Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS the two are 10.87 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS worth?
The market values Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS at about 2.4B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 18.05 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 7.18 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAGFS?
Our models span a range for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS: cautious scenario 6.56 TRY, base 7.18 TRY, optimistic 7.64 TRY per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 18.05 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 2.2%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAGFS from its 52-week high?
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS trades at 18.05 TRY, about 57% below its 52-week high of 41.52 TRY and 10% above the low of 16.38 TRY (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.18 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 18.05 TRY, calculated fair value 7.18 TRY (−60%), Quality Score 20/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAGFS calculated?
We run Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS through 5 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 7.18 TRY builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 18.05 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 7.18 TRY, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (7.64 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS

How large is the market capitalisation of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The market capitalisation of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 2.4B TRY (≈ $48.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Earnings per share at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS are −733.38 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The net margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is −52.3% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
The operating margin of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Revenue at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is growing +18.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS)?
Earnings per share at Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS are growing +93.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) generate?
The free cash flow of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 1.8M TRY (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS (BAGFS) carry?
The net debt of Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari AS is 2.0B TRY (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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