Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. (BAGFS) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · TR · Market cap 3.2B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Share price −6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (12.37 TRY to 26.16 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5.38 TRY – 47.00 TRY · fair‑value band 12.37 TRY – 26.16 TRY · the 24.00 TRY price screens above the 19.97 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. (BAGFS) currently trades at 24.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.97 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. generated revenue of 4.2B TRY at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue declined 44.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.3%. Net debt stands at 2.0B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 12.37 TRY (bear case) to 26.16 TRY (bull case); at 24.00 TRY, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -17%, BAGFS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (716.77 TRY) versus Dividend Discount (17.20 TRY). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey and internationally. The company offers chemical fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate; calcium ammonium nitrate; di ammonium phosphate; AS; sulphur composite fertilizer; sulphur zinc composite fertilizer; sulphur trioxide zinc NPK compound; and special formulations.
Full company description
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. produces and sells fertilizers in Turkey and internationally. The company offers chemical fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate; calcium ammonium nitrate; di ammonium phosphate; AS; sulphur composite fertilizer; sulphur zinc composite fertilizer; sulphur trioxide zinc NPK compound; and special formulations. It also provides phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid, and other specialty products. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years
Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. reported revenue of 2.9B TRL in FY2023 versus 872M TRL in FY2019, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5B TRL in FY2023.
BAGFS screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 181 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | $67.10 | $80.29 | +20% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥28.98 | ¥42.12 | +45% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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