Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) stock SEK 37.20, price SEK 45.00, upside -17.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 36.44 – kr 119.63 · fair‑value band kr 37.20 – kr 128.66 · the kr 45.00 price screens above the kr 37.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Fastighets AB Balder (publ) owns, manages, and develops properties in Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Its property portfolio comprises offices, shops, warehouses, restaurants, schools, and others, as well as hotel properties.
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The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B) currently trades at kr 45.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 37.20, 17.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of kr 68.35 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the kr 45.00 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at kr 36.77, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 37.20 (bear) to kr 128.66 (bull), the price of kr 45.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) reported revenue of 13.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 9.0B SEK in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was 7.6B SEK in FY2025, compounding −19.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 56.2B SEK (≈ $5.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 4.04 · EPS (TTM) kr 5.14 · Net margin 50.2% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% · Operating margin 66.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −17%, BALD-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 37.20Fair Value kr 37.20Bullkr 128.66
Price kr 45.00 · Upside -17.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 4.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.2% vs 1.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.126% → 67%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.2% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (59 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The diversified real estate portfolio offers some resilience yet low return on equity combined with one off items undermines overall durability.
Main risk: Elevated leverage could constrain refinancing options and thereby limit the durability of the real estate operations.
Alecta has just taken a 1.66 percent stake in Balder, becoming its eleventh-largest owner after buying 19.8 million shares in September. Our models see the company as overvalued despite its diversified real-estate portfolio and recent leadership changes. Will the arrival of this major pension investor support a re-rating, or will the valuation gap remain the dominant factor?
Compare Fastighets AB Balder (publ) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 132 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.1% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)50.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)66.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fastighets AB Balder (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BALD-B
Frequently asked questions
Is Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 37.20 versus a price of kr 45.00, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BALD-B?
Our model-based fair value for Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is kr 37.20 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 45.00.
What is the quality score of BALD-B?
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 37.20 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 37.20, optimistic scenario kr 128.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fastighets AB Balder (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 37.20, about −17% upside versus a price of kr 45.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 37.20, optimistic scenario kr 128.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.9B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fastighets AB Balder (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +26.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BALD-B use?
Our models discount Fastighets AB Balder (publ) at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.79, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fastighets AB Balder (publ) that is +26.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fastighets AB Balder (publ) grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +26.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (+26.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.45 %: that much free cash flow Fastighets AB Balder (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fastighets AB Balder (publ) it is kr 37.20 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 45.00. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fastighets AB Balder (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, BALD-B trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 45.00, fair value kr 37.20, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BALD-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 45.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 37.20). For Fastighets AB Balder (publ) the two are kr 7.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fastighets AB Balder (publ) worth?
The market values Fastighets AB Balder (publ) at about 56.2B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 45.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 37.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BALD-B?
Our models span a range for Fastighets AB Balder (publ): cautious scenario kr 37.20, base kr 37.20, optimistic kr 128.66 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 45.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BALD-B?
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 37.20 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.4 (reported for FY2025: 7.5). Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 0.6, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 20.3.
What is the PEG ratio of BALD-B?
The PEG ratio of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 1.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BALD-B from its 52-week high?
Fastighets AB Balder (publ) trades at kr 45.00, about 40% below its 52-week high of kr 74.64 and 3% above the low of kr 43.51 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 37.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fastighets AB Balder (publ)?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fastighets AB Balder (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 45.00, calculated fair value kr 37.20 (−17%), Quality Score 62/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BALD-B calculated?
We run Fastighets AB Balder (publ) through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 37.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Fastighets AB Balder (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was kr 45.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 37.20, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fastighets AB Balder (publ) right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 37.20 to kr 128.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B) come from?
Earnings per share at Fastighets AB Balder (publ) grew −0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.6 %, EBIT margin −10.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Fastighets AB Balder (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
The market capitalisation of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 56.2B SEK (≈ $5.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 4.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
Earnings per share at Fastighets AB Balder (publ) are kr 5.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
The net margin of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 50.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
The operating margin of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 66.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
Revenue at Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B)?
Earnings per share at Fastighets AB Balder (publ) are growing −9.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fastighets AB Balder (publ) (BALD-B) carry?
The net debt of Fastighets AB Balder (publ) is 137B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 25.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 13, 2026