BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of BHG Retail REIT S$0.08, price S$0.46, upside -82.6%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.2583 SGD – 0.5786 SGD · fair‑value band 0.0800 SGD – 0.1900 SGD · the 0.4600 SGD price screens above the 0.0800 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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BHG Retail REIT is the first pure-play China Retail REIT sponsored by a leading China integrated retail group. The REIT was listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited on 11 December 2015.
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BHG Retail REIT is the first pure-play China Retail REIT sponsored by a leading China integrated retail group. The REIT was listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited on 11 December 2015. The principal investment strategy of BHG Retail REIT is to invest, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for retail purposes (whether either wholly or partially), as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing, with an initial focus on China. As at 31 December 2025, the REIT's portfolio comprises six retail properties, Beijing Wanliu (60%), Chengdu Konggang, Hefei Mengchenglu, Hefei Changjiangxilu, Xining Huayuan, Dalian Jinsanjiao located in Tier 1, Tier 2 and other cities of significant economic potential in China. The portfolio gross floor area of about 311,691 sqm, has a committed occupancy of 93.4% as at 31 December 2025. As at the latest date of valuation, total appraised value was approximately RMB 4,694 million. Under voluntary right of first refusal agreements, properties may potentially be offered to BHG Retail REIT as future pipeline assets. BHG Retail REIT was established on November 18, 2015 and incorporated in Singapore.
Stock analysis
BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) currently trades at 0.4600 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.0800 SGD, 82.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 0.4600 SGD per share, and 1 of the 10 models we run sit above the 0.4600 SGD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 0.0300 SGD, and 9 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.0800 SGD (bear) to 0.1900 SGD (bull), the price of 0.4600 SGD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
BHG Retail REIT reported revenue of 55.1M SGD in FY2025 versus 70.6M SGD in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −1.8M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 239M SGD (≈ $187M) · P/S ratio 4.44 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −3.3% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 49.3% · Revenue (TTM) 53.9M SGD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −83%, BMGU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.0300 SGD to 0.6400 SGD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 0.0800 SGDFair Value 0.0800 SGDBull 0.1900 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.4% (2020) → 49.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−82.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)49.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.53× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF12.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA17.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.0800 SGD versus the last price from Sep 23, 2026 of 0.4600 SGD, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BMGU?
Our model-based fair value for BHG Retail REIT is 0.0800 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 23, 2026): 0.4600 SGD.
What is the quality score of BMGU?
BHG Retail REIT has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.0800 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.0800 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.1900 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BHG Retail REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.0800 SGD, about −83% upside versus the last price from Sep 23, 2026 of 0.4600 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.0800 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.1900 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
BHG Retail REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 53.9M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does BHG Retail REIT pay a dividend?
BHG Retail REIT currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BHG Retail REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +26.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BMGU use?
Our models discount BHG Retail REIT at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BHG Retail REIT that is +26.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BHG Retail REIT grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +26.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BHG Retail REIT (+26.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.14 %: that much free cash flow BHG Retail REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BHG Retail REIT it is 0.0800 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 0.4600 SGD. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BHG Retail REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BMGU trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.4600 SGD, fair value 0.0800 SGD, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMGU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.4600 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.0800 SGD). For BHG Retail REIT the two are 0.3800 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BHG Retail REIT worth?
The market values BHG Retail REIT at about 239M SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 0.4600 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.0800 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMGU?
Our models span a range for BHG Retail REIT: cautious scenario 0.0800 SGD, base 0.0800 SGD, optimistic 0.1900 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 0.4600 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
Balance-sheet figures for BHG Retail REIT (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 0.2%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMGU from its 52-week high?
BHG Retail REIT trades at 0.4600 SGD, about 6% below its 52-week high of 0.4892 SGD and 23% above the low of 0.3744 SGD (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.0800 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BHG Retail REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BHG Retail REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 0.4600 SGD, calculated fair value 0.0800 SGD (−83%), Quality Score 60/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMGU calculated?
We run BHG Retail REIT through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.0800 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BHG Retail REIT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 23, 2026 and stands at 0.4600 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.0800 SGD, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BHG Retail REIT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.1900 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (0.0800 SGD to 0.1900 SGD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BHG Retail REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The market capitalisation of BHG Retail REIT is 239M SGD (≈ $187M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BHG Retail REIT is 4.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The dividend yield of BHG Retail REIT is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The net margin of BHG Retail REIT is −3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BHG Retail REIT is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BHG Retail REIT is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
The operating margin of BHG Retail REIT is 49.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
Revenue at BHG Retail REIT is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BHG Retail REIT (BMGU)?
Earnings per share at BHG Retail REIT are growing −35.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) carry?
The net debt of BHG Retail REIT is 279M SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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