BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · SG · Market cap 239M SGD

A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The model range is unusually wide (0.1300 SGD to 0.5700 SGD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.2583 SGD – 0.5786 SGD · fair‑value band 0.1300 SGD – 0.5700 SGD · the 0.4650 SGD price screens above the 0.3500 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.

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Analysis

BHG Retail REIT (BMGU) currently trades at 0.4650 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.3500 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 24.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, BHG Retail REIT generated revenue of 55.1M SGD at a net margin of -3.3%. Revenue declined 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.3%. Net debt stands at 279M SGD. Fundamentals as of Aug 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 0.1300 SGD (bear case) to 0.5700 SGD (bull case); at 0.4650 SGD, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -25%, BMGU screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (0.4600 SGD) versus Dividend Discount (0.0300 SGD). Highest evidence: Rev-Margin DCF (74).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

BHG Retail REIT is the first pure-play China Retail REIT sponsored by a leading China integrated retail group. The REIT was listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited on 11 December 2015.

Full company description

BHG Retail REIT is the first pure-play China Retail REIT sponsored by a leading China integrated retail group. The REIT was listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited on 11 December 2015. The principal investment strategy of BHG Retail REIT is to invest, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for retail purposes (whether either wholly or partially), as well as real estate-related assets in relation to the foregoing, with an initial focus on China. As at 31 December 2025, the REIT's portfolio comprises six retail properties, Beijing Wanliu (60%), Chengdu Konggang, Hefei Mengchenglu, Hefei Changjiangxilu, Xining Huayuan, Dalian Jinsanjiao located in Tier 1, Tier 2 and other cities of significant economic potential in China. The portfolio gross floor area of about 311,691 sqm, has a committed occupancy of 93.4% as at 31 December 2025. As at the latest date of valuation, total appraised value was approximately RMB 4,694 million. Under voluntary right of first refusal agreements, properties may potentially be offered to BHG Retail REIT as future pipeline assets. BHG Retail REIT was established on November 18, 2015 and incorporated in Singapore.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BHG Retail REIT reported revenue of 55.1M SGD in FY2025 versus 70.6M SGD in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −1.8M SGD in FY2025.

BMGU screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →

Peer Group

REIT - Retail · 98 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.