The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.1B
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
CAKE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +39.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($62.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($31.44 to $62.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.76 – $107.31 · fair‑value band $31.44 – $62.85 · the $107.05 price screens above the $35.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) currently trades at $107.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.14, implying the stock looks roughly 67.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated generated revenue of $3.8B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.3%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $31.44 (bear case) to $62.85 (bull case); at $107.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 151% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -67%, CAKE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($50.78) versus Asset-Based ($5.89). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. It operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors.
Full company description
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. It operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company operates restaurants under the brands comprising The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $148M in FY2025, compounding +19.7%/yr from FY2021.
CAKE screens 67% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Are Retail-Wholesale Stocks Lagging The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) This Year?
- Zacks.com featured highlights Lam, The Cheesecake, Vertiv and Fortinet
- The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue?
- Zacks.com featured highlights Enova, PBF, Huron , and The Cheesecake
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
Compare The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of CAKE?
What is the quality score of CAKE?
What is the revenue of The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)?
What is the net profit margin of CAKE?
Does The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.