Century Aluminum Company (CENX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Century Aluminum Company $7.18, price $38.82, upside -81.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $7.18 · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
!Quality 38/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +9.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(7/14)
✓Wide moat77/100
!Insider activity40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.28 – $68.77 · fair‑value band $5.38 – $8.97 · the $38.82 price screens above the $7.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland. The company engages in the production of standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products.
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Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland. The company engages in the production of standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in Vlissingen, the Netherlands; and operates aluminum reduction facilities or smelters; and bauxite mining and alumina refining in Jamaica. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) currently trades at $38.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.18, implying the stock looks roughly 440.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $16.02 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $38.82 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.68, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.38 (bear) to $8.97 (bull), the price of $38.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Century Aluminum Company reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was $41.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.1B · P/E ratio 6.7 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $5.76 · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 51.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 28.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −82%, CENX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.38Fair Value $7.18Bull $8.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
’14
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.9% (2019) → 5.5% (2024)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.9% a year for the price and +15.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Century Aluminum Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−82% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)52% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)6.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B4.93× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.53× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF48.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.2× · Pricier than median
PEG0.06× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)99· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Century Aluminum Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CENX
Frequently asked questions
Is Century Aluminum Company (CENX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.18 versus a price of $38.82, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CENX?
Our model-based fair value for Century Aluminum Company is $7.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.82.
What is the quality score of CENX?
Century Aluminum Company has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.38, optimistic scenario $8.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Century Aluminum Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.18, about −82% upside versus a price of $38.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.38, optimistic scenario $8.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
Century Aluminum Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Century Aluminum Company would have to grow free cash flow by +35.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CENX use?
Our models discount Century Aluminum Company at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Century Aluminum Company that is +35.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Century Aluminum Company (CENX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Century Aluminum Company grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Century Aluminum Company (CENX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Century Aluminum Company (+35.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.08 %: that much free cash flow Century Aluminum Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Century Aluminum Company it is $7.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $38.82. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Century Aluminum Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CENX trades above its calculated fair value: price $38.82, fair value $7.18, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CENX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.18). For Century Aluminum Company the two are $31.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Century Aluminum Company worth?
The market values Century Aluminum Company at about $4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $38.82; our models calculate a fair value of $7.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CENX?
Our models span a range for Century Aluminum Company: cautious scenario $5.38, base $7.18, optimistic $8.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $38.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CENX?
Century Aluminum Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.18 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 4.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CENX?
The PEG ratio of Century Aluminum Company is 0.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Century Aluminum Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 51.8%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CENX from its 52-week high?
Century Aluminum Company trades at $38.82, about 44% below its 52-week high of $68.77 and 50% above the low of $25.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Century Aluminum Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Century Aluminum Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $38.82, calculated fair value $7.18 (−82%), Quality Score 38/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CENX calculated?
We run Century Aluminum Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Century Aluminum Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $38.82. Our model-based fair value is $7.18, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Century Aluminum Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Century Aluminum Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
The market capitalisation of Century Aluminum Company is $4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Century Aluminum Company is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
Earnings per share at Century Aluminum Company are $5.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
The net margin of Century Aluminum Company is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Century Aluminum Company is 51.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Century Aluminum Company is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
The operating margin of Century Aluminum Company is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
Revenue at Century Aluminum Company is growing +19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Century Aluminum Company (CENX)?
Earnings per share at Century Aluminum Company are growing +10.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Century Aluminum Company (CENX) carry?
The net debt of Century Aluminum Company is $413M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026