Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $4.6B
Century Aluminum Company
CENX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $12.72 to $7.18 (−43.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +14.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.28 – $68.77 · fair‑value band $5.38 – $8.97 · the $51.23 price screens above the $7.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) currently trades at $51.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.18, implying the stock looks roughly 86.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Century Aluminum Company generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 13.7%. Revenue grew 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.3%. Net debt stands at $413M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.38 (bear case) to $8.97 (bull case); at $51.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 209% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -86%, CENX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($12.26) versus Earnings-Based ($3.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland. The company engages in the production of standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products.
Full company description
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland. The company engages in the production of standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in Vlissingen, the Netherlands; and operates aluminum reduction facilities or smelters; and bauxite mining and alumina refining in Jamaica. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Century Aluminum Company reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was $41.8M in FY2025.
CENX screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Century Aluminum to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick visits Century Aluminum Mt. Holly, Celebrate Expansion with South Carolina Leaders
- Century Aluminum Sets Date for Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Announcement
- Century Aluminum (CENX) Is Up 11.3% After Mt. Holly Expansion Boosts U.S. Aluminum Capacity 10%
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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