Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chagee Holdings Limited stock $23.67, price $12.43, upside +90.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
19‑month range $9.16 – $33.44 · fair‑value band $15.90 – $42.47 · the $12.43 price screens below the $23.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States.
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The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies. It also engages in supply chain product sales; brand, marketing, and management; and information technology activities. In addition, the company operates its teahouses online.
Chagee Holdings Limited was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) currently trades at $12.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.67, implying the stock looks roughly 47% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $42.29 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $12.43 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.68, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $15.90 (bear) to $42.47 (bull), the price of $12.43 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares reported revenue of 12.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 492M CNY in FY2022, a compound +197.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.9900 · Dividend yield 9.1% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6% (4-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 90%, CHA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$15.90Fair Value $23.67Bull$42.47
Price $12.43 · Upside +90.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8462 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$5.72$7.07$9.6070
FCF DCF$20.30$27.85$51.2069
EPV$12.27$13.25$14.0969
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$20.30$27.85$51.2069
Owner Earnings$12.38$20.06$35.3465
5Y Revenue Exit$16.72$24.20$39.8263
5Y EBITDA Exit$17.76$26.30$43.0265
5Y P/E Exit$21.10$39.85$65.3960
10Y Revenue Exit$17.61$30.53$38.4359
10Y EBITDA Exit$18.70$32.68$56.5558
10Y P/E Exit$21.06$39.64$70.1754
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$6.19$43.17$60.5856
Lynch FV$22.30$31.86$41.4254
PEG = 1.0$22.30$31.86$41.4251
EPV$12.27$13.25$14.0969
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$8.25$16.15$24.0260
DDM Multi-Stage$8.25$14.10$17.0960
Multiples
P/E Multiple$15.02$20.03$25.0361
P/S Multiple$9.03$12.04$15.0556
P/B Multiple$16.87$22.50$28.1253
EV/EBIT$19.08$23.80$28.5161
EV/EBITDA$15.39$18.88$22.3663
EV/Revenue$13.37$16.99$20.6050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$2.43$3.68$4.6051
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$19.42$31.16$49.9767
Rev-Margin DCF$17.82$26.83$45.7262
Economic Profit
Residual Income$5.72$7.07$9.6070
ROIC Compounder$12.27$13.25$14.0965
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$29.60$42.29$54.9861
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+197.2%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.1%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The company's main strength lies in improving same-store sales and premium tea positioning, while its primary weakness remains limited visibility into brand durability amid intense competition.
Main risk: Intense competition in the home market poses the biggest risk, potentially undermining demand and margins for its premium tea offerings.
Chagee reports improving same-store sales in China, prompting analysts to grow more constructive on its execution and long-term prospects. The premium tea positioning and dine-in focus set it apart, yet intense home-market competition persists alongside overseas growth. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will the domestic trends hold and drive results, or must international expansion shoulder the heavier load?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+90.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.2% · Above median
Return on assets10.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)9.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.22× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.4× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHA
Frequently asked questions
Is Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.67 versus a price of $12.43, about +90% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHA?
Our model-based fair value for Chagee Holdings Limited is $23.67 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.43.
What is the quality score of CHA?
Chagee Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.67 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.90, optimistic scenario $42.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.67, about +90% upside versus a price of $12.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $15.90, optimistic scenario $42.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Chagee Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares pay a dividend?
Chagee Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 9.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chagee Holdings Limited has a dividend yield of 9.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Dec 8, 2025. The payout ratio is 81.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.26 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chagee Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +197.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHA use?
Our models discount Chagee Holdings Limited at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chagee Holdings Limited that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Chagee Holdings Limited grew +197.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chagee Holdings Limited (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 49.67 %: that much free cash flow Chagee Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chagee Holdings Limited it is $23.67 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $12.43. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CHA trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.43, fair value $23.67, a gap of about +90% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.67). For Chagee Holdings Limited the two are $11.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares worth?
The market values Chagee Holdings Limited at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $12.43; our models calculate a fair value of $23.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHA?
Our models span a range for Chagee Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $15.90, base $23.67, optimistic $42.47 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $12.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHA?
Chagee Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chagee Holdings Limited (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 16.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHA from its 52-week high?
Chagee Holdings Limited trades at $12.43, about 18% below its 52-week high of $15.22 and 36% above the low of $9.16 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $12.43, calculated fair value $23.67 (+90%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHA calculated?
We run Chagee Holdings Limited through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $23.67 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Chagee Holdings Limited currently trades 47% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $12.43. Our model-based fair value is $23.67, about +90% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($15.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($15.90 to $42.47). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Chagee Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The market capitalisation of Chagee Holdings Limited is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chagee Holdings Limited is 1.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Earnings per share at Chagee Holdings Limited are $0.9900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The dividend yield of Chagee Holdings Limited is 9.1% (payout 115%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The net margin of Chagee Holdings Limited is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chagee Holdings Limited is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chagee Holdings Limited is 15.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The operating margin of Chagee Holdings Limited is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Revenue at Chagee Holdings Limited is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +197%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Earnings per share at Chagee Holdings Limited are growing +591% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) hold?
Chagee Holdings Limited holds more cash than debt, $6.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 7, 2026