Chagee Holdings (CHA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.2B
Chagee Holdings
CHA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 35 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $30.00 to $18.70 (−37.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −10.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 84% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (16 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
16‑month range $9.16 – $33.44 · fair‑value band $14.14 – $23.91 · the $10.18 price screens below the $18.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Chagee Holdings (CHA) currently trades at $10.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.70, implying the stock looks roughly 83.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chagee Holdings generated revenue of $13.1B at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.14 (bear case) to $23.91 (bull case); at $10.18, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 84%, CHA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($433.60) versus Asset-Based ($39.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies.
Full company description
Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies. It also engages in supply chain product sales; brand, marketing, and management; and information technology activities. In addition, the company operates its teahouses online. Chagee Holdings Limited was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chagee Holdings reported revenue of ¥12.9B in FY2025 versus ¥492M in FY2022, a compound +197.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.2B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
Compare Chagee Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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