Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Chagee Holdings Limited $32.48, price $11.28, upside +187.9%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range $9.16 – $33.44 · fair‑value band $21.81 – $58.27 · the $11.28 price screens below the $32.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies.
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Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States. The company sells freshly made tea drinks, related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies. It also engages in supply chain product sales; brand, marketing, and management; and information technology activities. In addition, the company operates its teahouses online. Chagee Holdings Limited was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (CHA) currently trades at $11.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.48, implying the stock looks roughly 65.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $248.86 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $11.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $29.88, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $21.81 (bear) to $58.27 (bull), the price of $11.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares reported revenue of 12.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 492M CNY in FY2022, a compound +197.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.7300 · Dividend yield 9.1% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 15.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 188%, CHA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $21.81Fair Value $32.48Bull $58.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5340 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+197.2%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+179% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHA
Frequently asked questions
Is Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.48 versus a price of $11.28, about +188% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHA?
Our model-based fair value for Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is $32.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.28.
What is the quality score of CHA?
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.48 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.81, optimistic scenario $58.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.48, about +188% upside versus a price of $11.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.81, optimistic scenario $58.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares pay a dividend?
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares it is $32.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CHA trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.28, fair value $32.48, a gap of about +188% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.48). For Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares the two are $21.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares worth?
The market values Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.28; our models calculate a fair value of $32.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHA?
Our models span a range for Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares: cautious scenario $21.81, base $32.48, optimistic $58.27 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHA?
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHA from its 52-week high?
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares trades at $11.28, about 31% below its 52-week high of $16.44 and 23% above the low of $9.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.28, calculated fair value $32.48 (+188%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHA calculated?
We run Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares currently trades 188 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.28. Our model-based fair value is $32.48, about +188% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($21.81 to $58.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The market capitalisation of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is 1.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Earnings per share at Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares are $0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The dividend yield of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is 9.1% (payout 141%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The net margin of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is 15.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
The operating margin of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Revenue at Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +197%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)?
Earnings per share at Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares are growing −40.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) generate?
The free cash flow of Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) hold?
Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares holds more cash than debt, $6.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026