Charlie's Holdings (CHUC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $65.9M
Charlie's Holdings
CHUC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −8.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($0.0900 to $0.3000). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0350 – $0.6000 · fair‑value band $0.0900 – $0.3000 · the $0.2066 price screens above the $0.1200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Charlie's Holdings (CHUC) currently trades at $0.2066, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1200, implying the stock looks roughly 41.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Charlie's Holdings generated revenue of $24.1M at a net margin of 19.3%. Revenue grew 204.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.4%. Net debt stands at $1.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0900 (bear case) to $0.3000 (bull case); at $0.2066, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 141% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at -42%, CHUC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($0.7300) versus Asset-Based ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Charlie's Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, formulates, markets, and distributes non-combustible nicotine-related, and non-nicotine vapor products in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Charlie's Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, formulates, markets, and distributes non-combustible nicotine-related, and non-nicotine vapor products in the United States and internationally. The company offers alternative alkaloid products under the Metatine and SBX brands; nicotine-based disposable products under the Pacha and PACHAMAMA brands; e-liquid products; and nicotine salt products. It sells its products through distributors, specialty retailers, and third-party online resellers. Charlie's Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Charlie's Holdings reported revenue of $20.9M in FY2025 versus $21.5M in FY2021, a compound −0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $4.5M in FY2025, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2021.
CHUC screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Philip Morris International Inc →
Peer Group
Tobacco · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $188.93 | $103.71 | -45% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $60.02 | $61.14 | +2% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.44 | $81.81 | +20% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹281.75 | ₹282.04 | +0% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 179,900 KRW | 119,073 KRW | -34% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 695.00 IDR | 1,193 IDR | +72% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,337 | ₹1,194 | -49% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 16,375 IDR | 16,988 IDR | +4% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,480 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +26% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.00 | HK$24.09 | +5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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