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COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co $7.54, price $6.05, upside +24.7%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US12636Q1094

Broad data Sep 24, 2026

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co

CITAY · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $7.54 · Undervalued (+24.7%)

!Quality 45/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 6.0% net margin (TTM)

!High debt · negative free cash flow

!4.1% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns

!Narrow moat 36/100

26 models, one by oneBear $5.78 to bull $9.63 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 45/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.20 – $7.51 · fair‑value band $5.78 – $9.63 · the $6.05 price screens below the $7.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells containers in the United States, Asia, Hong Kong, Mainland China, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Container Manufacturing Business; Shipping Leasing Business; Container Leasing Business; and Investment Management Business segments. The company offers dry cargo, refrigerated, and special containers, as well as container houses and after-sales services; integrated shipping, logistics, and industry finance services; and vessel chartering and financial leasing services, including container ships, dry bulk carriers, special-purpose vessels, and tankers. COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. was formerly known as China Shipping Container Lines Company Limited and changed its name to COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. in November 2016. COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY) currently trades at $6.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.54, implying the stock looks roughly 19.8% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $14.79 per share, and 9 of the 11 models we run sit above the $6.05 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.47, and 2 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $5.78 (bear) to $9.63 (bull), the price of $6.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co reported revenue of 25.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 37.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −28.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.7B · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $0.8500 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 25%, CITAY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.78 Fair Value $7.54 Bull $9.63

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6148 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $6.67 $6.82 $7.21 76

Gordon GGM $10.45 $15.83 $21.42 68

DDM Multi-Stage $10.45 $14.79 $19.53 67

All 12 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $3.08 $6.64 $8.44 66

PEG = 1.0 $1.03 $1.47 $1.91 57

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $10.45 $15.83 $21.42 68

DDM Multi-Stage $10.45 $14.79 $19.53 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $7.14 $9.52 $11.90 63

P/S Multiple $5.78 $7.71 $9.63 58

P/B Multiple $5.78 $7.71 $9.63 55

EV/EBIT n/a n/a $0.3900 61

EV/EBITDA $1.93 $6.58 $11.23 61

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $4.34 $5.81 $8.67 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $6.67 $6.82 $7.21 76

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $5.28 $7.54 $9.80 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 20

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 47

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 43

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 11

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 62

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 83

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 26

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 21

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 95

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

−8.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−0.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year

Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.3%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−0.9%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%

Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.0% vs 7.1%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype

Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd's Dividend Analysis Yahoo Finance · Sep 23, 2026
Is Now the Right Moment for COSCO SHIPPING Development After Strong 48.8% Price Surge? Yahoo Finance · Sep 9, 2025
COSCO SHIPPING Development Achieved Quality Improvement in 1H2022, Integrated Core Advantages and Promoted Digital Empowerment Yahoo Finance · Aug 30, 2022

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 45 · Below median

Fair Value upside −15.2% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 5.3% · Below median

Return on assets 1.6% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 6.0% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 10.5% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 10.5% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.72× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.2× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.12× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

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COSCO SHIPPING Development Co · Fair Value
$7.54 +20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "COSCO SHIPPING Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CITAY

Frequently asked questions

Is COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.54 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $6.05, about +25% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of CITAY?

Our model-based fair value for COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is $7.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $6.05.

What is the quality score of CITAY?

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.78, optimistic scenario $9.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the COSCO SHIPPING Development Co stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $7.54, about +25% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $6.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.78, optimistic scenario $9.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does COSCO SHIPPING Development Co pay a dividend?

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For COSCO SHIPPING Development Co it is $7.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.05. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is COSCO SHIPPING Development Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, CITAY trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.05, fair value $7.54, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of CITAY?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.54). For COSCO SHIPPING Development Co the two are $1.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is COSCO SHIPPING Development Co worth?

The market values COSCO SHIPPING Development Co at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.05; our models calculate a fair value of $7.54 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CITAY?

Our models span a range for COSCO SHIPPING Development Co: cautious scenario $5.78, base $7.54, optimistic $9.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of CITAY?

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 7.2.

How solid is the balance sheet of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

Balance-sheet figures for COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 1.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is CITAY from its 52-week high?

COSCO SHIPPING Development Co trades at $6.05, about 19% below its 52-week high of $7.51 and 9% above the low of $5.54 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.54 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to COSCO SHIPPING Development Co?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is COSCO SHIPPING Development Co stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.05, calculated fair value $7.54 (+25%), Quality Score 45/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of CITAY calculated?

We run COSCO SHIPPING Development Co through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. COSCO SHIPPING Development Co currently trades 20 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $6.05. Our model-based fair value is $7.54, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with COSCO SHIPPING Development Co right now?

Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Where does the earnings growth of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY) come from?

Earnings per share at COSCO SHIPPING Development Co grew +7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.0 %, EBIT margin +17.4 %, tax rate +3.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co

How large is the market capitalisation of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

The market capitalisation of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

The price-to-sales ratio of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is 0.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

Earnings per share at COSCO SHIPPING Development Co are $0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

The dividend yield of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is 4.1% (payout 29.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

The net margin of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

The return on equity (ROE) of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

The operating margin of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

Revenue at COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY)?

Earnings per share at COSCO SHIPPING Development Co are growing −12.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY) generate?

The free cash flow of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is −4.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does COSCO SHIPPING Development Co (CITAY) carry?

The net debt of COSCO SHIPPING Development Co is 56.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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