Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group $15.78, price $15.10, upside +4.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.42 – $20.78 · fair‑value band $8.40 – $26.83 · the $15.10 price screens below the $15.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names.
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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells jewelry products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. The company provides gem-set, platinum and k-gold jewelry, and gold jewelry products under the CHOW TAI FOOK, HEARTS ON FIRE, ENZO, MONOLOGUE, and SOINLOVE brand names. It also distributes watches of various brands. In addition, the company is involved in the trading of diamonds; and the provision of services to franchisees. It sells its products through online platforms, as well as stores. The company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited is a subsidiary of Chow Tai Fook Capital Limited.
Stock analysis
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY) currently trades at $15.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.78, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $21.85 per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the $15.10 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.48, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.40 (bear) to $26.83 (bull), the price of $15.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group reported revenue of HK$94.8B in FY2026 versus HK$98.9B in FY2022, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$9.0B in FY2026, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $15.5B · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) $1.15 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 9.5% · Return on equity 30.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 5%, CJEWY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.40Fair Value $15.78Bull $26.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2446 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.8% vs −11.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 19%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 17.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +58.5% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 122 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)30.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CJEWY
Frequently asked questions
Is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.78 versus a price of $15.10, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CJEWY?
Our model-based fair value for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is $15.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.10.
What is the quality score of CJEWY?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.40, optimistic scenario $26.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.78, about +5% upside versus a price of $15.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $8.40, optimistic scenario $26.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$94.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group pay a dividend?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group would have to grow free cash flow by +61.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CJEWY use?
Our models discount Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group that is +61.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +61.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (+61.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.35 %: that much free cash flow Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group it is $15.78 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $15.10. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CJEWY trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.10, fair value $15.78, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CJEWY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.78). For Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group the two are $0.6800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group worth?
The market values Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group at about $15.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $15.10; our models calculate a fair value of $15.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CJEWY?
Our models span a range for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group: cautious scenario $8.40, base $15.78, optimistic $26.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $15.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CJEWY?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 30.6%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CJEWY from its 52-week high?
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group trades at $15.10, about 20% below its 52-week high of $18.90 and 19% above the low of $12.74 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Titan Company, Tapestry, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $15.10, calculated fair value $15.78 (+5%), Quality Score 64/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CJEWY calculated?
We run Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $15.10. Our model-based fair value is $15.78, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($8.40 to $26.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY) come from?
Earnings per share at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group grew −17.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −17.9 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The market capitalisation of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is $15.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
Earnings per share at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group are $1.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The dividend yield of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is 4.4% (payout 58.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The net margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is 9.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is 30.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
The operating margin of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
Revenue at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY)?
Earnings per share at Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group are growing +87.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CJEWY) carry?
The net debt of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group is HK$20.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 47.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026