Carma Limited (CMA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$129M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −12.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.6400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.3400 to A$0.6400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (9 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
9‑month range A$0.6000 – A$2.50 · fair‑value band A$0.3400 – A$0.6400 · the A$0.8200 price screens above the A$0.5100 fair value. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Carma Limited (CMA) currently trades at A$0.8200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5100, implying the stock looks roughly 37.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Carma Limited generated revenue of A$84.3M at a net margin of -59.9%. Revenue grew 33.7% year over year. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.3400 (bear case) to A$0.6400 (bull case); at A$0.8200, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -38%, CMA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Carma Limited operates a digital platform for buying and selling used cars in Australia. The company sells various types of used cars, such as SUVs, utes, hatchbacks, sedans, people movers, coupes, and convertibles.
Full company description
Carma Limited operates a digital platform for buying and selling used cars in Australia. The company sells various types of used cars, such as SUVs, utes, hatchbacks, sedans, people movers, coupes, and convertibles. It also provides direct-from-consumer sourcing, inspection and inhouse reconditioning, AI-powered pricing, online retail, dealer-only wholesale auctions, financing and delivery services. Carma Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Strawberry Hills, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carma Limited reported revenue of A$71.4M in FY2025 versus A$48.0M in FY2023, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$35.9M in FY2025.
CMA screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Carvana Co →
Peer Group
Auto & Truck Dealerships · 102 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana Co CVNA | $70.38 | $24.58 | -65% |
| Penske Automotive Group PAG | $202.66 | $241.86 | +19% |
| Hotai Motor Co 2207 | 476.50 TWD | 576.75 TWD | +21% |
| CarMax, Inc KMX | $58.47 | $29.62 | -49% |
| Lithia Motors, Inc LAD | $339.16 | $610.95 | +80% |
| AutoNation, Inc AN | $205.72 | $329.77 | +60% |
| Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA | $76.89 | $66.27 | -14% |
| Valvoline Inc VVV | $38.64 | $24.57 | -36% |
| OPENLANE, Inc OPLN | $39.46 | $33.81 | -14% |
| Eagers Automotive Limited APE | A$20.83 | A$17.66 | -15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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