COSCO Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Non-Cyclicals · PH · Market cap 35.3B PHP
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 10, 2026, revised from 63.03 PHP to 49.40 PHP (−21.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 480% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (37.05 PHP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.12 PHP – 8.52 PHP · fair‑value band 37.05 PHP – 61.75 PHP · the 8.52 PHP price screens below the 49.40 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
COSCO (COSCO) currently trades at 8.52 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 49.40 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 479.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.8. Fundamentals as of Jul 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 37.05 PHP (bear case) to 61.75 PHP (bull case); at 8.52 PHP, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Non-Cyclicals peers we cover trades at -18% fair-value upside, at 480%, COSCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (75.92 PHP) versus Asset-Based (16.22 PHP). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
COSCO reported revenue of 237B PHP in FY2024 versus 177B PHP in FY2020, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 9.3B PHP in FY2024, compounding +12.1%/yr from FY2020.
Watch COSCO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Consumer Discretionary · 3559 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Food & Drug Retailing” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food & Drug Retailing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGOLD PGOLD | 39.30 PHP | 62.75 PHP | +60% |
| RRHI RRHI | 38.00 PHP | 43.51 PHP | +15% |
| KEEPR KEEPR | 1.86 PHP | 6.15 PHP | +231% |
| Gimat Magazacilik Sanayi Ve Ticaret A.S. GMTAS | 46.70 TRY | 8.96 TRY | -81% |
| Curexo Inc 060280 | 8,000 KRW | 1,147 KRW | -86% |
| FRUIT FRUIT | 0.6700 PHP | 0.5500 PHP | -18% |
| Seouleaguer Co 043710 | 2,850 KRW | 811.29 KRW | -72% |
| FB FB | 49.00 PHP | 49.03 PHP | +0% |
| JGS JGS | 25.00 PHP | 20.51 PHP | -18% |
| URC URC | 61.20 PHP | 47.86 PHP | -22% |
Compare COSCO with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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