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Cerence Inc (CRNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cerence Inc stock $5.48, price $8.15, that is 32.7% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology US

CI Cerence Inc logo Thin data Nov 3, 2026

Cerence Inc

CRNC · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 33% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow
Quality 40/100
Moderate debt
Insiders sold $3.4M (6M)
Fair value $5.48 · Overvalued (−32.7%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −5.3 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -5.0% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 18/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$119.94 $2.37 Fair Value $5.48 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.37 – $119.94 · fair‑value band $3.73 – $7.00 · the $8.15 price screens above the $5.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Cerence Inc. provides AI-powered assistants for the mobility/transportation market in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Germany, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the rest of the Asia-Pacific.

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The company offers edge software components, cloud-connected components, virtual assistant, and professional services.

It also provides conversational and generative artificial intelligence-based solutions, including speech recognition, natural language understanding, speech signal enhancement, text-to-speech, and acoustic tuning.

The company has a strategic partnership with Arm Kleidi; and SiMa.ai to advance the capabilities and performance of CaLLM Edge. Cerence Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Cerence Inc (CRNC) currently trades at $8.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.48, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.45 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $8.15 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.73, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $3.73 (bear) to $7.00 (bull), the price of $8.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Cerence Inc reported revenue of $252M in FY2025 versus $387M in FY2021, a compound −10.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $389M Small · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3600 · Net margin −5.0% · Return on equity −9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.5% · Revenue (TTM) $309M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −33%, CRNC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.73 Fair Value $5.48 Bull $7.00
Price $8.15 · Downside -32.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $5.26 $6.82 $9.60 81
Growth DCF $5.39 $6.86 $9.27 80
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.39 $6.72 $9.96 75
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $5.26 $6.82 $9.60 81
5Y Revenue Exit $2.54 $3.60 $5.22 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.39 $6.72 $9.96 75
10Y Revenue Exit $3.81 $4.80 $5.79 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.77 $6.45 $8.24 69
Multiples
EV/EBIT $1.99 $3.73 $5.47 63
EV/EBITDA $3.83 $6.19 $8.54 66
EV/Revenue n/a $0.5400 $1.67 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $5.39 $6.86 $9.27 80
Rev-Margin DCF $2.54 $3.83 $5.60 72

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 17
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 77
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 16
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 93
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 24
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 23
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 11
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.4M and none bought.

  • SaleBrian M KrzanichChief Executive Officer, Director2× since Oct 7, 2026: 153,418 shares, avg. $8.22$1.3MOct 9, 2026
  • SaleNils SchanzEVP Product & Technology52,439 shares at $8.00$419,512Oct 7, 2026
  • SaleJennifer SalinasEVP Chief Admin Officer2× since Aug 10, 2026: 92,151 shares, avg. $8.23$758,786Oct 7, 2026
  • SaleChristian MentzEVP, Chief Revenue Officer48,923 shares at $8.00$391,384Oct 7, 2026
  • SaleAntonio RodriquezCFO76,614 shares at $8.00$612,912Oct 7, 2026
  • Plan buyAntonio RodriquezCFO2,000 shares at $7.02$14,040Feb 15, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−24.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.8% a year for the price and +3.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.2%

CRNC screens overvalued: fair value 33% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 630 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −32.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −5.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 4.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 11.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.33× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.58× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 1.26× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 8.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)59 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)34 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Adobe Inc ADBE $239.30 $463.72 +94% vs CRNC
Salesforce, Inc CRM $213.65 $342.73 +60% vs CRNC
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $68.59 $101.28 +48% vs CRNC
Intuit Inc INTU $341.50 $459.14 +34% vs CRNC
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $101.97 $112.60 +10% vs CRNC
SAP SE SAP €210.75 €173.59 −18% vs CRNC
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $319.92 $225.48 −30% vs CRNC
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $303.35 $150.40 −50% vs CRNC
Shopify Inc SHOP $148.91 $64.96 −56% vs CRNC
Snowflake Inc SNOW $275.88 $73.81 −73% vs CRNC

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Cerence Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cerence Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRNC

Frequently asked questions

Is Cerence Inc (CRNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.48 versus a price of $8.15, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRNC?
Our model-based fair value for Cerence Inc is $5.48 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.15.
What is the quality score of CRNC?
Cerence Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.48 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.73, optimistic scenario $7.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cerence Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.48, about 33% lower versus a price of $8.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.73, optimistic scenario $7.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
Cerence Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $309M (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cerence Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRNC use?
Our models discount Cerence Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 3.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cerence Inc that is +9.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cerence Inc (CRNC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cerence Inc grew -5.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cerence Inc (CRNC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cerence Inc (+9.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.03 %: that much free cash flow Cerence Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cerence Inc it is $5.48 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $8.15. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Cerence Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, CRNC trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.15, fair value $5.48, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.48). For Cerence Inc the two are $2.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cerence Inc worth?
The market values Cerence Inc at about $389M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $8.15; our models calculate a fair value of $5.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRNC?
Our models span a range for Cerence Inc: cautious scenario $3.73, base $5.48, optimistic $7.00 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $8.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cerence Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −9.6%, debt of 1.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRNC from its 52-week high?
Cerence Inc trades at $8.15, about 38% below its 52-week high of $13.10 and 37% above the low of $5.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cerence Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cerence Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $8.15, calculated fair value $5.48 (−33%), Quality Score 40/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRNC calculated?
We run Cerence Inc through 10 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Cerence Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.15. Our model-based fair value is $5.48, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cerence Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.73 to $7.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cerence Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
The market capitalisation of Cerence Inc is $389M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cerence Inc is 1.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
Earnings per share at Cerence Inc are $−0.3600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
The net margin of Cerence Inc is −5.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cerence Inc is −9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cerence Inc is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
The operating margin of Cerence Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
Revenue at Cerence Inc is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cerence Inc (CRNC)?
Earnings per share at Cerence Inc are growing −92.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cerence Inc (CRNC) carry?
The net debt of Cerence Inc is $146M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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