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CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A $10.58, price $7.23, upside +46.3%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A
CTTOF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $10.58 · Undervalued (+46.3%)
!Quality 57/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 40/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.05 – $8.90 · fair‑value band $6.90 – $14.31 · the $7.23 price screens below the $10.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in reference postal business in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through three segments: E-Commerce Solutions, Mail and Services, and Banco CTT.
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CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in reference postal business in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through three segments: E-Commerce Solutions, Mail and Services, and Banco CTT. It is involved in consulting, outsource process management, and contact center operations; courier services, urgent mail transport, express mail, and delivery of goods; distribution of advertising mail; payment services; and provision of various banking products and services. The company was founded in 1520 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
Stock analysis
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF) currently trades at $7.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.58, implying the stock looks roughly 31.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $13.71 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $7.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.47, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.90 (bear) to $14.31 (bull), the price of $7.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A reported revenue of €1.2B in FY2025 versus €814M in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was €50.7M in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $968M · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) $0.4400 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 46%, CTTOF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.90
Fair Value $10.58
Bull $14.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3327 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$11.40
$15.70
$21.13
81
Growth DCF
$11.57
$15.43
$20.07
80
Owner Earnings
$9.70
$13.37
$17.99
77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$11.40
$15.70
$21.13
81
Owner Earnings
$9.70
$13.37
$17.99
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$9.32
$13.54
$18.69
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$12.89
$19.96
$27.90
75
5Y P/E Exit
$8.10
$11.33
$14.53
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$9.88
$13.62
$18.20
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$12.14
$17.61
$24.40
69
10Y P/E Exit
$9.38
$12.25
$15.40
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.93
$7.45
$9.69
65
PEG = 1.0
$1.38
$1.98
$2.57
57
EPV
$5.70
$6.50
$7.17
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.61
$2.74
$3.97
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.61
$2.31
$2.97
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.79
$9.05
$11.31
63
P/S Multiple
$5.50
$7.33
$9.16
58
P/B Multiple
$5.50
$7.33
$9.16
55
EV/EBIT
$11.84
$15.83
$19.83
66
EV/EBITDA
$15.94
$21.30
$26.67
67
EV/Revenue
$8.40
$12.07
$15.74
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.09
$1.47
$2.19
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$11.57
$15.43
$20.07
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$9.32
$13.71
$18.55
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.38
$2.94
$4.11
75
ROIC Compounder
$5.93
$7.04
$8.15
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.26
$7.51
$9.76
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
57/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.2% vs −2.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.2%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $93.44 | $107.34 | +15% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.74 | €137.08 | +146% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $289.65 | $349.54 | +21% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,199 | kr 711.95 | −41% |
| Poste Italiane S.p.A PST | €24.49 | €14.24 | −42% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 224.50 | CHF 147.92 | −34% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $188.58 | $116.66 | −38% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥30.54 | ¥109.70 | +259% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $226.07 | $133.80 | −41% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $148.24 | $87.31 | −41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.58 versus a price of $7.23, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTTOF?
Our model-based fair value for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is $10.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.23.
What is the quality score of CTTOF?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.90, optimistic scenario $14.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.58, about +46% upside versus a price of $7.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.90, optimistic scenario $14.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A pay a dividend?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.63% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTTOF use?
Our models discount CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.88 %: that much free cash flow CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A it is $10.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.23. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CTTOF trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.23, fair value $10.58, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTTOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.58). For CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A the two are $3.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A worth?
The market values CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A at about $968M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.23; our models calculate a fair value of $10.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTTOF?
Our models span a range for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A: cautious scenario $6.90, base $10.58, optimistic $14.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTTOF?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.0%, debt of 1.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTTOF from its 52-week high?
CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A trades at $7.23, about 12% below its 52-week high of $8.23 and 11% above the low of $6.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.23, calculated fair value $10.58 (+46%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTTOF calculated?
We run CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.23. Our model-based fair value is $10.58, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($6.90 to $14.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF) come from?
Earnings per share at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A grew −2.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin −5.2 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The market capitalisation of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is $968M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
Earnings per share at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A are $0.4400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The dividend yield of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 2.6% (payout 43.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The net margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
The operating margin of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
Revenue at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF)?
Earnings per share at CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A are growing −30.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A (CTTOF) carry?
The net debt of CTT - Correios De Portugal, S.A is €215M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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