CommVault Systems Inc (CVLT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CommVault Systems Inc stock $95.48, price $158, that is 39.7% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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CommVault Systems Inc
CVLT · USOur calculation puts a fair price 40% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.08 – $195.41 · fair‑value band $71.60 – $119.34 · the $158.36 price screens above the $95.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Company profile
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides cyber resiliency solutions for enterprises to protect, secure, and recover data, applications, and identity system.
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The company offers Operational Recovery for backup and recovery capabilities in hybrid enterprise workloads, such as backup, restore, recovery validation, and policy-based data movement to cloud storage; Autonomous Recovery, which adds automation, orchestration, and validation intended to reduce recovery times, downtime, and operational complexity; and Cyber Recovery, which adds cyber preparedness, threat detection, and clean recovery features to help organizations respond to ransomware and other cyber incidents.
The company also provides Commvault Cleanroom Recovery, an isolated and on-demand recovery environment in the cloud; Commvault HyperScale Grid, an integrated and scale-out data protection solution; Commvault HyperScale Flex, a data protection solution designed to support enterprise-scale environments and large-volume data workloads; and Commvault Threatscan to help identify and isolate malicious or anomalous data within backup environments.
In addition, it offers Commvault Cloud Air Gap Protect for isolated cloud storage; Commvault's Compliance, which includes reporting, auditing, and logging; Commvault's Cloud Rewind for data recovery with automated cloud application and infrastructure rebuild capabilities; and Commvault's Clumio Backtrack to revert cloud objects and datasets to a prior point in time.
Further, the company provides professional and customer support services comprising real-time support, support engineers, customer success options, technology consulting services, recovery services, education services, and cyber resilience managed services.
It operates in the United States, Canada, and Latin America, as well as in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Australia, India, Southeast Asia, and China. Commvault Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
CommVault Systems Inc (CVLT) currently trades at $158.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $95.48, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $88.03 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $158.36 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.65, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $71.60 (bear) to $119.34 (bull), the price of $158.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CommVault Systems Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $770M in FY2022, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was $70.7M in FY2026, compounding +20.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $7.1B Mid · P/E ratio 82.1 · P/S ratio 5.65 · EPS (TTM) $1.93 · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 74.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −40%, CVLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 22 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $11.3M and none bought.
- SaleNicola AdamoDirector1,530 shares at $131.66$201,440Sep 11, 2026
- SaleGary MerrillChief Financial Officer6× since Nov 18, 2025: 28,140 shares, avg. $110.47$3.1MAug 19, 2026
- SaleSanjay MirchandaniPresident & CEO, Director7× since Nov 18, 2025: 124,770 shares, avg. $111.25$13.9MAug 19, 2026
- SaleDanielle Nicole AbrahamsenChief Accounting Officer6× since Feb 18, 2026: 4,201 shares, avg. $115.80$486,466Aug 19, 2026
- SaleWilliam Geoffrey HaydonPresident of Cust & Field Ops316 shares at $134.78$42,590Aug 10, 2026
- SaleVivie LeeDirector595 shares at $134.19$79,843Aug 10, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleA Shane SandersDirector476 shares at $134.19$63,874Aug 10, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleJennifer Leigh DiRicoChief Financial Officer830 shares at $123.58$102,571Nov 18, 2025
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
CVLT screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
- Commvault (CVLT) is an Incredible Growth Stock: 3 Reasons Why
- Is It Worth Investing in Commvault (CVLT) Based on Wall Street's Bullish Views?
- CVLT Q3 deep dive: SaaS growth, identity resilience, and AI readiness shape outlook
- 5 must-read analyst questions from Commvault’s Q3 earnings call
Compare CommVault Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 629 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- PEG ratio by industry
- Revenue growth by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $239.30 | $463.72 | +94% | vs CVLT |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $213.65 | $342.73 | +60% | vs CVLT |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $68.59 | $101.28 | +48% | vs CVLT |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $341.50 | $459.14 | +34% | vs CVLT |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $101.97 | $112.60 | +10% | vs CVLT |
| SAP SE SAP | €210.75 | €173.59 | −18% | vs CVLT |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $319.92 | $225.48 | −30% | vs CVLT |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $303.35 | $150.40 | −50% | vs CVLT |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | $148.91 | $64.96 | −56% | vs CVLT |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $275.88 | $73.81 | −73% | vs CVLT |
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Key figures of CommVault Systems Inc
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