Commvault Systems, Inc (CVLT) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $6.2B
Commvault Systems, Inc
CVLT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $34.26 to $34.12 (−0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −7.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $51.08 – $195.41 · fair‑value band $25.59 – $42.64 · the $135.27 price screens above the $34.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Commvault Systems, Inc (CVLT) currently trades at $135.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.12, implying the stock looks roughly 74.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Commvault Systems, Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 42.5%. Net debt stands at $17.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.59 (bear case) to $42.64 (bull case); at $135.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -75%, CVLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($60.07) versus Asset-Based ($0.1200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides cyber resiliency solutions for enterprises to protect, secure, and recover data, applications, and identity system.
Full company description
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides cyber resiliency solutions for enterprises to protect, secure, and recover data, applications, and identity system. The company offers Operational Recovery for backup and recovery capabilities in hybrid enterprise workloads, such as backup, restore, recovery validation, and policy-based data movement to cloud storage; Autonomous Recovery, which adds automation, orchestration, and validation intended to reduce recovery times, downtime, and operational complexity; and Cyber Recovery, which adds cyber preparedness, threat detection, and clean recovery features to help organizations respond to ransomware and other cyber incidents. The company also provides Commvault Cleanroom Recovery, an isolated and on-demand recovery environment in the cloud; Commvault HyperScale Grid, an integrated and scale-out data protection solution; Commvault HyperScale Flex, a data protection solution designed to support enterprise-scale environments and large-volume data workloads; and Commvault Threatscan to help identify and isolate malicious or anomalous data within backup environments. In addition, it offers Commvault Cloud Air Gap Protect for isolated cloud storage; Commvault's Compliance, which includes reporting, auditing, and logging; Commvault's Cloud Rewind for data recovery with automated cloud application and infrastructure rebuild capabilities; and Commvault's Clumio Backtrack to revert cloud objects and datasets to a prior point in time. Further, the company provides professional and customer support services comprising real-time support, support engineers, customer success options, technology consulting services, recovery services, education services, and cyber resilience managed services. It operates in the United States, Canada, and Latin America, as well as in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Australia, India, Southeast Asia, and China. Commvault Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Commvault Systems, Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $770M in FY2022, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was $70.7M in FY2026, compounding +20.4%/yr from FY2022.
CVLT screens 75% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- COMMVAULT SYSTEMS, INC. (NASDAQ: CVLT) SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION ALERT: Bernstein Liebhard Investigates Potential Breaches of Fiduciary Duty
- Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in CommVault Systems Stock?
- Why Commvault Systems Rocked the Market Today
- Commvault to Present at the KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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