Dream Finders Homes, Inc (DFH) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.4B
Dream Finders Homes, Inc
DFH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $43.26 to $36.45 (−15.7%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −4.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 143% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide ($14.58 to $45.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.37 – $43.73 · fair‑value band $14.58 – $45.56 · the $15.03 price screens below the $36.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Dream Finders Homes, Inc (DFH) currently trades at $15.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.45, implying the stock looks roughly 142.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dream Finders Homes, Inc generated revenue of $4.2B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue declined 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.5%. Net debt stands at $356M. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.58 (bear case) to $45.56 (bull case); at $15.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 143%, DFH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($65.50) versus Dividend Discount ($1.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dream Finders Homes, Inc., through its subsidiary, Dream Finders Homes LLC, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It operates through four segments: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Financial Services.
Full company description
Dream Finders Homes, Inc., through its subsidiary, Dream Finders Homes LLC, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. It operates through four segments: Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Financial Services. The company designs, builds, constructs, and sells single-family homes, such as entry-level, first and second time move-up, and active adult and custom homes. It markets its homes under various brands, including Dream Finders Homes, DF Luxury, Reverie Active Adult Lifestyle by Dream Finders Homes, Craft Homes and Coventry Homes. The company also provides insurance agency services, including closing, escrow, and title insurance, as well as mortgage banking solutions. It sells its homes through its sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dream Finders Homes, Inc reported revenue of $4.3B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +22.4%/yr. Reported net income was $217M in FY2025, compounding +15.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 38/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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