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DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. $0.65, price $0.85, upside -23.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA2447781063

DT DEFSEC Technologies Inc. logo Thin data Oct 3, 2026

DEFSEC Technologies Inc.

DFSC · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

Our calculation puts a fair price 23% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +89.9 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (4/9)
Fair value $0.6545 · Overvalued (−23.0%)
Quality 37/100
Loss-making · -121.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$28,224 $0.8500 Fair Value $0.6545 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.8500 – $28,224 · fair‑value band $0.4335 – $0.8245 · the $0.8500 price screens above the $0.6545 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

DEFSEC Technologies Inc. engages in the development and commercialization of tactical systems for security, and personal defense markets.

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DEFSEC Technologies Inc. engages in the development and commercialization of tactical systems for security, and personal defense markets. The company offers DEFSEC Lightning, a military digitization technology; Less-Lethal Munitions Systems, including PARA SHOT, a next-generation less-lethal system and ARWEN, a 40mm munition and new marking cartridge; It also provides BMA-Ready Solutions, including TAK and ATAK, tactical digital fires, battlefield laser detection system, and phantom tactical multi-function electromagnetic spectrum operations system. DEFSEC Technologies Inc. was formerly known as KWESST Micro Systems Inc. and changed its name to DEFSEC Technologies Inc. in June 2025. DEFSEC Technologies Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.

Stock analysis

DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC) currently trades at $0.8500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6545, 23.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.4335 (bear) to $0.8245 (bull), the price of $0.8500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

DEFSEC Technologies Inc. reported revenue of C$4.9M in FY2025 versus C$1.3M in FY2021, a compound +40.3%/yr. Reported net income was −C$9.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.9M · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $−1.30 · Net margin −121% · Return on equity −188% · Return on assets (EBIT) −118% · Operating margin −94.1% · Revenue (TTM) C$7.5M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 84% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −23%, DFSC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.4335 Fair Value $0.6545 Bull $0.8245
Price $0.8500 · Upside -23.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.7900 $1.06 $1.57 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7900 $1.06 $1.57 51

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 96
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+228.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−721.3% (2021) → −183.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

DFSC screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −56.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −121.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −94.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 92.0% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.49× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.51× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)3 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 17

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
TransDigm Group TDG $1,108 $1,219 +10% vs DFSC
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $506.63 $439.62 −13% vs DFSC
General Dynamics Corporation GD $331.27 $274.19 −17% vs DFSC
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $478.00 $382.98 −20% vs DFSC
Thales S.A HO €215.70 €170.99 −21% vs DFSC
Airbus SE AIR €188.00 €112.14 −40% vs DFSC
RTX Corporation RTX $183.29 $88.30 −52% vs DFSC
Rheinmetall AG RHM €934.90 €313.19 −67% vs DFSC
General Electric Company GE $306.34 $92.61 −70% vs DFSC
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $231.27 $52.67 −77% vs DFSC

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DEFSEC Technologies Inc. · Fair Value
$0.6545 −23%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DEFSEC Technologies Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DFSC

Frequently asked questions

Is DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6545 versus a price of $0.8500, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DFSC?
Our model-based fair value for DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is $0.6545 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8500.
What is the quality score of DFSC?
DEFSEC Technologies Inc. has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6545 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4335, optimistic scenario $0.8245. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DEFSEC Technologies Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6545, about −23% upside versus a price of $0.8500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4335, optimistic scenario $0.8245. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
DEFSEC Technologies Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$7.5M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DEFSEC Technologies Inc. it is $0.6545 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $0.8500. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DEFSEC Technologies Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, DFSC trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8500, fair value $0.6545, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DFSC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6545). For DEFSEC Technologies Inc. the two are $0.1955 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DEFSEC Technologies Inc. worth?
The market values DEFSEC Technologies Inc. at about $3.9M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $0.8500; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6545 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DFSC?
Our models span a range for DEFSEC Technologies Inc.: cautious scenario $0.4335, base $0.6545, optimistic $0.8245 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $0.8500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
Balance-sheet figures for DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −187.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DFSC from its 52-week high?
DEFSEC Technologies Inc. trades at $0.8500, about 84% below its 52-week high of $5.25 and at the low of $0.8500 (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6545 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DEFSEC Technologies Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DEFSEC Technologies Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $0.8500, calculated fair value $0.6545 (−23%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DFSC calculated?
We run DEFSEC Technologies Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6545, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.6 % above its aggregate fair value. DEFSEC Technologies Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was $0.8500. Our model-based fair value is $0.6545, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DEFSEC Technologies Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8245). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($0.4335 to $0.8245) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of DEFSEC Technologies Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
The market capitalisation of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is $3.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
Earnings per share at DEFSEC Technologies Inc. are $−1.30. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
The net margin of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is −121% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is −188% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is −118% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
The operating margin of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is −94.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC)?
Revenue at DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is growing +92.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +89.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC) generate?
The free cash flow of DEFSEC Technologies Inc. is −C$8.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does DEFSEC Technologies Inc. (DFSC) hold?
DEFSEC Technologies Inc. holds more cash than debt, C$5.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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