AMCON Distributing Company (DIT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $68.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $39.39 to $12.82 (−67.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 81% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.02 – $158.70 · fair‑value band $9.61 – $16.02 · the $68.86 price screens above the $12.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
AMCON Distributing Company (DIT) currently trades at $68.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.82, implying the stock looks roughly 81.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $2.4B. Revenue grew 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at $173M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.61 (bear case) to $16.02 (bull case); at $68.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -81%, DIT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($77.62) versus Earnings-Based ($4.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AMCON Distributing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of consumer products in the Central, Rocky Mountain, and Mid-South regions of the United States. The company operates through two segments: Wholesale Distribution and Retail Health Food.
Full company description
AMCON Distributing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of consumer products in the Central, Rocky Mountain, and Mid-South regions of the United States. The company operates through two segments: Wholesale Distribution and Retail Health Food. The Wholesale Distribution segment distributes consumer products, including cigarettes and tobacco products, candy and other confectionery, beverages, groceries, paper products, health and beauty care products, frozen and refrigerated products, and institutional foodservice products. It serves retail outlets, such as convenience stores, discount and general merchandise stores, grocery stores, drug stores, liquor stores, tobacco shops, and gas stations; and institutional customers, including restaurants and bars, schools, sports complexes, and other wholesalers. This segment also markets its own private label lines of water, candy products, batteries, and other products. The Retail Health Food segment offers the retail of natural, organic, and specialty foods consisting of produce, baked goods, frozen foods, nutritional supplements, personal care items, and general merchandise. In addition, the company operates retail health food stores under the Chamberlin's Natural Foods, Akin's Natural Foods, and Earth Origins Market brands. AMCON Distributing Company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Omaha, Nebraska.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AMCON Distributing Company reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was $569K in FY2025, compounding −56.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
DIT screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.69 | $60.58 | -26% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $99.13 | $55.10 | -44% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $113.17 | $37.94 | -66% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €17.68 | €21.59 | +22% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.90 THB | 17.04 THB | +14% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $95.79 | $37.27 | -61% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.33 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +59% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $50.19 | $6.00 | -88% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $79.24 | $47.78 | -40% |
| Metcash Limited MTS | A$2.92 | A$5.33 | +83% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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