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AMCON Distributing Company (DIT) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $68.8M

AD AMCON Distributing Company logo AMCON Distributing Company DIT · US
Price$68.86
Fair Value$12.82
Upside-81.4%
Quality46/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 0.0% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
0.69% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/15)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: High Range $9.61 – $16.02 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 20 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $39.39 to $12.82 (−67.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −2.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 81% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$158.70 $62.02 Fair Value $12.82 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $62.02 – $158.70 · fair‑value band $9.61 – $16.02 · the $68.86 price screens above the $12.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

AMCON Distributing Company (DIT) currently trades at $68.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.82, implying the stock looks roughly 81.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $2.4B. Revenue grew 17.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at $173M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $9.61 (bear case) to $16.02 (bull case); at $68.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -81%, DIT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($4.01 to $134.83). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $4.39 80
Residual Income $70.61 $63.90 $37.59 76
Gordon GGM $4.61 $7.72 $10.01 70
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $17.27 38
5Y Revenue Exit $17.23 $92.80 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $93.12 $204.14 41
10Y Revenue Exit $57.35 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $39.39 $130.22 37
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.96 $12.69 $16.93 54
Lynch FV $2.81 $4.01 $5.22 50
PEG = 1.0 $2.81 $4.01 $5.22 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.61 $7.72 $10.01 70
DDM Multi-Stage $4.61 $7.01 $8.30 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.61 $12.82 $16.02 63
P/S Multiple $7.43 $9.91 $12.38 58
P/B Multiple $7.43 $9.91 $12.38 55
EV/EBIT $33.20 $91.09 $148.98 53
EV/EBITDA $66.00 $134.83 $203.65 54
EV/Revenue $26.77 $76.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $57.92 $77.62 $115.85 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.39 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income $70.61 $63.90 $37.59 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $7.99 $11.41 $14.84 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($77.62) versus Earnings-Based ($4.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $2.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +17.1%
Net margin 0.0%
Return on equity 0.4%
Free cash flow $9.7M FY2025
P/E ratio 146.8
More key figures
Operating margin -0.1%
EPS (TTM) $0.4800
Dividend yield 0.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +125%
Net debt $173M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 64
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

AMCON Distributing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of consumer products in the Central, Rocky Mountain, and Mid-South regions of the United States. The company operates through two segments: Wholesale Distribution and Retail Health Food.

Full company description

AMCON Distributing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of consumer products in the Central, Rocky Mountain, and Mid-South regions of the United States. The company operates through two segments: Wholesale Distribution and Retail Health Food. The Wholesale Distribution segment distributes consumer products, including cigarettes and tobacco products, candy and other confectionery, beverages, groceries, paper products, health and beauty care products, frozen and refrigerated products, and institutional foodservice products. It serves retail outlets, such as convenience stores, discount and general merchandise stores, grocery stores, drug stores, liquor stores, tobacco shops, and gas stations; and institutional customers, including restaurants and bars, schools, sports complexes, and other wholesalers. This segment also markets its own private label lines of water, candy products, batteries, and other products. The Retail Health Food segment offers the retail of natural, organic, and specialty foods consisting of produce, baked goods, frozen foods, nutritional supplements, personal care items, and general merchandise. In addition, the company operates retail health food stores under the Chamberlin's Natural Foods, Akin's Natural Foods, and Earth Origins Market brands. AMCON Distributing Company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Omaha, Nebraska.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

AMCON Distributing Company reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was $569K in FY2025, compounding −56.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.8B
Latest YoY
+3.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.1%
Avg. growth/yr (29Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.0%
Revenue +13.9%/yr
FY21 $1.7B
FY22 $2.0B
FY23 $2.5B
FY24 $2.7B
FY25 $2.8B
Net income −56.3%/yr
FY21 $15.5M
FY22 $16.7M
FY23 $11.6M
FY24 $4.3M
FY25 $569K
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +10.9 pp

of which total revenue +8.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.3 pp

EBIT margin −1.9 pp
Tax rate +0.8 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −8.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

DIT screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AMCON Distributing Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DIT

Peer Group

Food Distribution · 77 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −81% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 17% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.22× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 146.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.61× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 7.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.10× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 21
FUTURE 86 · sector 14
PAST 1 · sector 36
HEALTH 39 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 14 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sysco Corporation SYY $81.69 $60.58 -26%
US Foods Holding USFD $99.13 $55.10 -44%
Performance Food Group PFGC $113.17 $37.94 -66%
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT €17.68 €21.59 +22%
CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT 14.90 THB 17.04 THB +14%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF $95.79 $37.27 -61%
Olam Group VC2 1.33 SGD 2.12 SGD +59%
United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI $50.19 $6.00 -88%
The Andersons, Inc ANDE $79.24 $47.78 -40%
Metcash Limited MTS A$2.92 A$5.33 +83%

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Frequently asked questions

Is AMCON Distributing Company (DIT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.82 versus a price of $68.86, about −81% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DIT?
Our model-based fair value for AMCON Distributing Company is $12.82 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $68.86.
What is the quality score of DIT?
AMCON Distributing Company has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of AMCON Distributing Company (DIT)?
AMCON Distributing Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DIT?
The net profit margin of AMCON Distributing Company is about 0.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does AMCON Distributing Company pay a dividend?
AMCON Distributing Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 15, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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