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DroneShield Limited (DRSHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of DroneShield Limited $0.15, price $1.32, upside -88.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · Home Australia · ISIN AU000000DRO2

DL DroneShield Limited logo Thin data Oct 2, 2026

DroneShield Limited

DRSHF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.1500 · Strongly overvalued (−88.6%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +108.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.24 $0.1000 Fair Value $0.1500 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1000 – $4.24 · fair‑value band $0.1500 – $0.1700 · the $1.32 price screens above the $0.1500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

DroneShield Limited engages in the development, commercialization, and sale of counter-drone hardware and software technology in Australia, the United States, Europe, Asia, the United Kingdon, and internationally.

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DroneShield Limited engages in the development, commercialization, and sale of counter-drone hardware and software technology in Australia, the United States, Europe, Asia, the United Kingdon, and internationally. It provides DroneSentry-C2, a command-and-control platform; DroneSentry-C2 Enterprise, a browser-based monitoring platform; DroneSentry-C2 Tactical, a rugged command-and-control solution; RfPatrol-Plugin, a mobile-first ATAK-CIV plugin; Access Portal that provides centralized access to mission-critical support and resources. The company also offers RfPatrol Mk2, a wearable solution providing true airspace awareness for military, law enforcement, and executive security personnel; DroneGun Mk4, an ultra-portable handheld countermeasure; Immediate Response Kit, a rapidly deployable counter-drone solution; and DroneGun Tactical, a portable threat long range and highly effective countermeasure. In addition, it provides DroneSentry-X Mk2, a software-defined detection and adaptive disruption system; and Expeditionary Fixed Site (EFS) Kit that transforms the DroneSentry-X Mk2 into a sensor and effector solution for wide area operations. Further, the company offers DroneSentry, an autonomous interoperable detection and countermeasure; and SentryCiv, a drone detection system that delivers 360-degree radio frequency (RF) situational awareness using its RFAI engine. It serves defence and intelligence agencies; airports, ports, prisons, data centres, and other critical infrastructure; utilities, such as power plants, electricity grids, and gas pipelines; intelligence and national security agencies; stadiums and other public event venues and organizers; and assets owners. The company sells its products through third party distributors, as well as direct relationships with various customers. DroneShield Limited was founded in 2014 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

DroneShield Limited (DRSHF) currently trades at $1.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1500, 88.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.2300 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $1.32 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.0700, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.1500 (bear) to $0.1700 (bull), the price of $1.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

DroneShield Limited reported revenue of A$216M in FY2025 versus A$10.5M in FY2021, a compound +113.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$3.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B · P/S ratio 8.11 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.5% · Operating margin −3.5% · Revenue (TTM) A$217M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −89%, DRSHF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.1500 Fair Value $0.1500 Bull $0.1700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.1800 $0.2200 $0.3600 77
Growth DCF $0.1700 $0.2400 $0.3500 76
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.1600 $0.2100 $0.3100 73
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.1800 $0.2200 $0.3600 77
5Y Revenue Exit $0.1600 $0.2100 $0.3200 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.1600 $0.2100 $0.3100 73
5Y P/E Exit $0.1500 $0.2200 $0.3200 68
10Y Revenue Exit $0.1600 $0.2500 $0.3000 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.1600 $0.2500 $0.3900 65
10Y P/E Exit $0.1600 $0.2300 $0.3500 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.0200 $0.1300 $0.1800 61
Lynch FV $0.0600 $0.0900 $0.1200 59
PEG = 1.0 $0.0600 $0.0900 $0.1200 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.0600 $0.0700 $0.0900 63
P/S Multiple $0.0300 $0.0500 $0.0600 57
P/B Multiple $0.0300 $0.0500 $0.0600 54
EV/EBITDA $0.1400 $0.1700 $0.1900 67
EV/Revenue $0.1400 $0.1700 $0.2000 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1300 $0.1700 $0.2500 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.1700 $0.2400 $0.3500 76
Rev-Margin DCF $0.1600 $0.2300 $0.3600 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.1600 $0.1500 $0.1400 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.0900 $0.1300 $0.1700 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 24
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+276.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+134.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+108.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +106.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+161.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−43.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−127% → −2%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +54.2% a year for the price and +22.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+55.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+24.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+21.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+18.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+16.0%

DRSHF screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −88.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 316.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 8.11× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 190.4× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

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10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
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RTX Corporation RTX $185.01 $88.30 −52%
Airbus SE AIR €185.60 €112.14 −40%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $509.25 $439.62 −14%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $230.94 $52.67 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $334.16 $274.19 −18%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $504.61 $382.98 −24%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,116 $1,228 +10%
Thales S.A HO €222.70 €170.99 −23%
Rheinmetall AG RHM €956.90 €313.19 −67%

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DroneShield Limited · Fair Value
$0.1500 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DroneShield Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DRSHF

Frequently asked questions

Is DroneShield Limited (DRSHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1500 versus a price of $1.32, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DRSHF?
Our model-based fair value for DroneShield Limited is $0.1500 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.32.
What is the quality score of DRSHF?
DroneShield Limited has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1500 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1500, optimistic scenario $0.1700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DroneShield Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1500, about −89% upside versus a price of $1.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1500, optimistic scenario $0.1700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
DroneShield Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$217M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does DroneShield Limited pay a dividend?
DroneShield Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DroneShield Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +58.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +108.0 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DRSHF use?
Our models discount DroneShield Limited at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DroneShield Limited that is +58.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DroneShield Limited (DRSHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DroneShield Limited grew +108.0 % a year. The price currently implies +58.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DroneShield Limited (+58.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.50 %: that much free cash flow DroneShield Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DroneShield Limited it is $0.1500 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $1.32. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DroneShield Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, DRSHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.32, fair value $0.1500, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRSHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1500). For DroneShield Limited the two are $1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DroneShield Limited worth?
The market values DroneShield Limited at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $1.32; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRSHF?
Our models span a range for DroneShield Limited: cautious scenario $0.1500, base $0.1500, optimistic $0.1700 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $1.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for DroneShield Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 1.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRSHF from its 52-week high?
DroneShield Limited trades at $1.32, about 69% below its 52-week high of $4.24 and 25% above the low of $1.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DroneShield Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DroneShield Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $1.32, calculated fair value $0.1500 (−89%), Quality Score 40/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRSHF calculated?
We run DroneShield Limited through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. DroneShield Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.32. Our model-based fair value is $0.1500, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DroneShield Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band ($0.1500 to $0.1700), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of DroneShield Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The market capitalisation of DroneShield Limited is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DroneShield Limited is 8.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The dividend yield of DroneShield Limited is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The net margin of DroneShield Limited is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DroneShield Limited is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DroneShield Limited is −10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
The operating margin of DroneShield Limited is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
Revenue at DroneShield Limited is growing +317% versus a year earlier (3y avg +134%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DroneShield Limited (DRSHF)?
Earnings per share at DroneShield Limited are growing −73.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does DroneShield Limited (DRSHF) hold?
DroneShield Limited holds more cash than debt, A$78.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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