Dusk Group (DSK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$47.9M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −9.9% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 128% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$1.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4640 – A$2.55 · fair‑value band A$1.17 – A$1.94 · the A$0.6850 price screens below the A$1.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Dusk Group (DSK) currently trades at A$0.6850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 127.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dusk Group generated revenue of A$142M at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.5%. Net debt stands at A$17.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.17 (bear case) to A$1.94 (bull case); at A$0.6850, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 128%, DSK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$3.82) versus Asset-Based (A$0.3400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dusk Group Limited retails scented and unscented candles, home decor, home fragrances, and gift solutions in Australia. The company offers candle accessories; wax melts and wax melt burners; reed, oil, and ultrasonic diffusers; oil and wax burners; diffuser accessories; and incense and incense holders, as well as essential and fragrant oils, reed refills, …
Full company description
Dusk Group Limited retails scented and unscented candles, home decor, home fragrances, and gift solutions in Australia. The company offers candle accessories; wax melts and wax melt burners; reed, oil, and ultrasonic diffusers; oil and wax burners; diffuser accessories; and incense and incense holders, as well as essential and fragrant oils, reed refills, and room sprays. It also provides perfumes, body care and bath products, and soaps; room sprays, home cleaning products, and pillow mist; plates; linens, lighting products, glasses, and mugs; and gift cards and sets. The company operates through a network of physical and online stores under the Dusk brand name. Dusk Group Limited was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Alexandria, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Dusk Group reported revenue of A$137M in FY2024 versus A$149M in FY2020, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$4.4M in FY2024, compounding −33.0%/yr from FY2020.
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Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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