Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Endeavour Group Ltd stock A$2.47, price A$3.60, that is 31.5% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.83 – A$7.05 · fair‑value band A$2.43 – A$2.56 · the A$3.60 price screens above the A$2.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Follow Endeavour Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Endeavour Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments.
Show moreShow less
The company operates stores that procure, manufacture, and sell drinks; and hotels that provide on-premises bars, food and drinks, wagering, accommodation, live entertainment, and gaming services.
It operates under the Dan Murphy's, BWS, Pinnacle, Nightcap, ALH, DELIVERY, FULFILLED, LANGTONS, MixIn, Paragon Wine Estates, endeavourX, and other brand names. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) currently trades at A$3.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.47, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$3.25 per share, and 5 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$3.60 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at A$0.5300, and 18 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$2.43 (bear) to A$2.56 (bull), the price of A$3.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Endeavour Group Ltd reported revenue of A$12.2B in FY2026 versus A$11.6B in FY2022, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$52.0M in FY2026, compounding −43.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.5B (≈ $4.5B) Mid · P/E ratio 120.0 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0300 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −32%, EDV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.43Fair Value A$2.47BullA$2.56
Price A$3.60 · Downside -31.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$3.25A$5.71A$9.7078
Growth DCFA$3.35A$5.57A$8.9677
Residual IncomeA$1.35A$1.37A$1.4276
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$3.25A$5.71A$9.7078
Owner EarningsA$1.34A$2.67A$4.8373
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.86A$3.21A$4.8971
5Y EBITDA ExitA$3.94A$7.06A$10.6974
5Y P/E ExitA$0.7500A$1.14A$1.5171
10Y Revenue ExitA$2.24A$3.60A$5.3566
10Y EBITDA ExitA$3.67A$6.35A$9.8967
10Y P/E ExitA$1.57A$2.12A$2.7165
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.2000A$0.5900A$0.780065
Lynch FVA$0.1300A$0.1800A$0.230061
PEG = 1.0A$0.1300A$0.1800A$0.230057
EPVA$0.8600A$1.18A$1.4673
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$1.58A$3.52A$6.0965
DDM Multi-StageA$1.58A$2.64A$3.6666
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.4600A$0.6100A$0.760063
P/S MultipleA$0.3700A$0.4900A$0.620058
EV/EBITn/aA$0.9500A$1.9761
EV/EBITDAA$2.70A$4.64A$6.5865
EV/Revenuen/an/aA$0.930050
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$3.35A$5.57A$8.9677
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.86A$3.25A$4.8471
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$1.35A$1.37A$1.4276
ROIC CompounderA$0.8600A$1.18A$1.4672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.3700A$0.5300A$0.690067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−32.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (35 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Thin evidence points to neutral business quality, with online sales growth and cost reduction targets as the main strength offset by limited pricing power and retail margin pressure.
Main risk: Ongoing promotions and shifting consumer habits in liquor retail threaten to further erode the company's retail margins and limit overall returns.
Endeavour runs a mix of liquor retail stores and hotels, with online sales growing sharply while the company targets hundreds of millions in cost reductions over the next few years after underlying profits fell in FY26. The new board member brings digital experience from real estate platforms, but retail margins remain under pressure from promotions and shifting consumer habits. Will the hotels recovery and cost discipline lift overall returns before further margin erosion sets in?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 89 stocks
P/B1.80× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.53× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow16.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)9· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)67· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Endeavour Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EDV
Frequently asked questions
Is Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.47 versus a price of A$3.60, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EDV?
Our model-based fair value for Endeavour Group Ltd is A$2.47 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.60.
What is the quality score of EDV?
Endeavour Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.47 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.43, optimistic scenario A$2.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Endeavour Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.47, about 32% lower versus a price of A$3.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.43, optimistic scenario A$2.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
Endeavour Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$12.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Endeavour Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Endeavour Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Endeavour Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EDV use?
Our models discount Endeavour Group Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Endeavour Group Ltd that is +6.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Endeavour Group Ltd grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +6.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Endeavour Group Ltd (+6.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow Endeavour Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Endeavour Group Ltd it is A$2.47 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of A$3.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Endeavour Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, EDV trades above its calculated fair value: price A$3.60, fair value A$2.47, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EDV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.47). For Endeavour Group Ltd the two are A$1.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Endeavour Group Ltd worth?
The market values Endeavour Group Ltd at about A$6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is A$3.60; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EDV?
Our models span a range for Endeavour Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.43, base A$2.47, optimistic A$2.56 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price A$3.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EDV?
Endeavour Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 120.0 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2021 to 2026), reported earnings: 23.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Endeavour Group Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 1.4%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EDV from its 52-week high?
Endeavour Group Ltd trades at A$3.60, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$3.91 and 27% above the low of A$2.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Endeavour Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Endeavour Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price A$3.60, calculated fair value A$2.47 (−32%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EDV calculated?
We run Endeavour Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Endeavour Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$3.60. Our model-based fair value is A$2.47, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Endeavour Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (A$2.43 to A$2.56), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Endeavour Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The market capitalisation of Endeavour Group Ltd is A$6.5B (≈ $4.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Endeavour Group Ltd is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
Earnings per share at Endeavour Group Ltd are A$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 120.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The dividend yield of Endeavour Group Ltd is 3.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The net margin of Endeavour Group Ltd is 0.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Endeavour Group Ltd is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Endeavour Group Ltd is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
The operating margin of Endeavour Group Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
Revenue at Endeavour Group Ltd is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV)?
Earnings per share at Endeavour Group Ltd are growing −17.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Endeavour Group Ltd (EDV) carry?
The net debt of Endeavour Group Ltd is A$5.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 14.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Endeavour Group Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Endeavour Group Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 1, 2026