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Endeavour Group (EDV) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$6.2B

EG Endeavour Group EDV · AU
PriceA$3.50
Fair ValueA$4.03
Upside+15.1%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
5.30% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Narrow moat 40/100
Evidence: High Range A$3.02 – A$5.04 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$4.98 to A$4.03 (−19.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 15% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from A$3.02 (bear) to A$5.04 (bull), base A$4.03. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 56/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$7.08 A$2.84 Fair Value A$4.03 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$2.84 – A$7.08 · fair‑value band A$3.02 – A$5.04 · the A$3.50 price screens below the A$4.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Endeavour Group (EDV) currently trades at A$3.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.03, implying the stock looks roughly 15.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Endeavour Group generated revenue of A$12.1B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at A$5.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$3.02 (bear case) to A$5.04 (bull case); at A$3.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 15%, EDV screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF A$4.18 A$6.73 A$10.32 80
Residual Income A$1.92 A$2.15 A$3.09 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$1.49 A$2.38 A$3.46 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$4.14 A$7.10 A$11.60 38
Owner Earnings A$3.47 A$6.04 A$9.94 31
5Y Revenue Exit A$1.49 A$2.31 A$3.27 39
5Y EBITDA Exit A$3.42 A$6.02 A$9.07 41
5Y P/E Exit A$2.93 A$5.06 A$7.33 38
10Y Revenue Exit A$2.39 A$3.39 A$4.62 36
10Y EBITDA Exit A$3.64 A$5.94 A$9.06 37
10Y P/E Exit A$3.32 A$5.29 A$7.73 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$1.61 A$5.67 A$7.63 54
Lynch FV A$1.32 A$1.89 A$2.46 50
PEG = 1.0 A$1.32 A$1.89 A$2.46 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$1.75 A$3.49 A$5.28 70
DDM Multi-Stage A$1.75 A$3.01 A$3.68 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$3.56 A$4.74 A$5.93 63
P/S Multiple A$3.02 A$4.03 A$5.04 58
P/B Multiple A$3.02 A$4.03 A$5.04 55
EV/EBIT A$0.5600 A$1.06 A$1.55 53
EV/EBITDA A$3.49 A$4.96 A$6.44 54
EV/Revenue A$0.0800 A$0.5100 A$0.9400 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$1.07 A$1.43 A$2.14 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$4.18 A$6.73 A$10.32 80
Rev-Margin DCF A$1.49 A$2.38 A$3.46 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$1.92 A$2.15 A$3.09 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$3.09 A$4.42 A$5.74 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$5.29) versus Asset-Based (A$1.43). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$12.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.9%
Net margin 3.1%
Return on equity 9.4%
Free cash flow A$816M FY2025
P/E ratio 14.1
More key figures
Operating margin 7.8%
EPS (TTM) A$0.2100
Dividend yield 6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -17.4%
Net debt A$5.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. The company operates stores that procure, manufacture, and sell drinks; and hotels that provide on-premises bars, food and drinks, wagering, accommodation, live entertainment, and gaming services.

Full company description

Endeavour Group Limited engages in the retail drinks and hospitality businesses in Australia. It operates through Retail, Hotels, and Other segments. The company operates stores that procure, manufacture, and sell drinks; and hotels that provide on-premises bars, food and drinks, wagering, accommodation, live entertainment, and gaming services. It operates under the Dan Murphy's, BWS, Pinnacle, Nightcap, ALH, DELIVERY, FULFILLED, LANGTONS, MixIn, Paragon Wine Estates, endeavourX, and other brand names. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Endeavour Group reported revenue of A$12.1B in FY2025 versus A$11.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$426M in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$12.1B
Latest YoY
−2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+1.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+23.8%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y)
+3.0%
Revenue +1.0%/yr
FY21 A$11.6B
FY22 A$11.6B
FY23 A$11.9B
FY24 A$12.3B
FY25 A$12.1B
Net income −1.1%/yr
FY21 A$445M
FY22 A$495M
FY23 A$529M
FY24 A$512M
FY25 A$426M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Endeavour Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EDV

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +15% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Below median
Revenue growth 1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.52× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.14× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.36× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 5.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 53 · sector 20
FUTURE 5 · sector 0
PAST 38 · sector 17
HEALTH 74 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 61

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,251 ¥1,238 -1%
Diageo plc DEON 1,487 MXN 1,239 MXN -17%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥73.69 ¥48.44 -34%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥110.50 ¥185.80 +68%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €65.24 €76.68 +18%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥83.12 ¥149.17 +79%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $26.60 $28.15 +6%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,376 ₹440.56 -68%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4450 SGD 0.6900 SGD +55%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥38.08 ¥27.82 -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Endeavour Group (EDV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.03 versus a price of A$3.50, about +15% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EDV?
Our model-based fair value for Endeavour Group is A$4.03 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$3.50.
What is the quality score of EDV?
Endeavour Group has a Quality Score of 56/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Endeavour Group (EDV)?
Endeavour Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$12.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EDV?
The net profit margin of Endeavour Group is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Endeavour Group pay a dividend?
Endeavour Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.14% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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