Ero Copper Corp (ERO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ero Copper Corp $41.02, price $36.48, upside +12.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.33 – $40.40 · fair‑value band $19.58 – $100.01 · the $36.48 price screens below the $41.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products.
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Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Ero Copper Corp (ERO) currently trades at $36.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.02, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $62.52 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $36.48 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.00, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $19.58 (bear) to $100.01 (bull), the price of $36.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ero Copper Corp reported revenue of $800M in FY2025 versus $490M in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was $268M in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.8B · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 4.37 · EPS (TTM) $2.80 · Net margin 33.6% · Return on equity 32.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.7% · Operating margin 34.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 110% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 12%, ERO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $19.58Fair Value $41.02Bull $100.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+70.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+26.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 34%
2025 sits 148% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.9% a year for the price and +20.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 59 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)35% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth110% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ero Copper Corp (ERO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.02 versus a price of $36.48, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ERO?
Our model-based fair value for Ero Copper Corp is $41.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.48.
What is the quality score of ERO?
Ero Copper Corp has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.58, optimistic scenario $100.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ero Copper Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.02, about +12% upside versus a price of $36.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.58, optimistic scenario $100.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
Ero Copper Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $924M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ero Copper Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +29.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ERO use?
Our models discount Ero Copper Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ero Copper Corp that is +29.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ero Copper Corp (ERO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ero Copper Corp grew +19.8 % a year. The price currently implies +29.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ero Copper Corp (ERO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ero Copper Corp (+29.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.40 %: that much free cash flow Ero Copper Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ero Copper Corp it is $41.02 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $36.48. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ero Copper Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ERO trades below its calculated fair value: price $36.48, fair value $41.02, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.02). For Ero Copper Corp the two are $4.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ero Copper Corp worth?
The market values Ero Copper Corp at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $36.48; our models calculate a fair value of $41.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERO?
Our models span a range for Ero Copper Corp: cautious scenario $19.58, base $41.02, optimistic $100.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $36.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ERO?
Ero Copper Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ero Copper Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 32.5%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERO from its 52-week high?
Ero Copper Corp trades at $36.48, about 10% below its 52-week high of $40.40 and 110% above the low of $17.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ero Copper Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ero Copper Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $36.48, calculated fair value $41.02 (+12%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERO calculated?
We run Ero Copper Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ero Copper Corp currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $36.48. Our model-based fair value is $41.02, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ero Copper Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($19.58 to $100.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Ero Copper Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
The market capitalisation of Ero Copper Corp is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ero Copper Corp is 4.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
Earnings per share at Ero Copper Corp are $2.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
The net margin of Ero Copper Corp is 33.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ero Copper Corp is 32.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ero Copper Corp is 15.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
The operating margin of Ero Copper Corp is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
Revenue at Ero Copper Corp is growing +110% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ero Copper Corp (ERO)?
Earnings per share at Ero Copper Corp are growing +35.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ero Copper Corp (ERO) carry?
The net debt of Ero Copper Corp is $526M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026