Elastic NV (ESTC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Elastic NV stock $92.62, price $86.08, upside +7.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 18 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.30 – $186.78 · fair‑value band $54.23 – $176.95 · the $86.08 price screens below the $92.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally.
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It primarily offers Elastic's Search AI Platform, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as performs search, analysis, and visualization on that data.
The company also provides Elastic search product a distributed, real-time vector database and analytics engine and data store for all types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the platforms; Elasticsearch search platform, a platform with retrieval algorithms and the ability to integrate with large language models; and elastic security, a security solution that provides unified protection to prevent, detect, and respond to threats.
In addition, it offers Elastic Observability, a solution that enables unified analysis, including Logs analytics to search and analyze petabytes of structured and unstructured logs; infrastructure monitoring to gain visibility across cloud, on-premises, Kubernetes, serverless, and hosts; Application Performance Monitoring to stream native production-grade; digital experience monitoring; and large language models.
The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Elastic NV (ESTC) currently trades at $86.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $92.62, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $129.40 per share, and 10 of the 18 models we run sit above the $86.08 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $32.72, and 8 of the 18 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $54.23 (bear) to $176.95 (bull), the price of $86.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Elastic NV reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2026 versus $862M in FY2022, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was $368M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $9.1B Mid · P/E ratio 23.8 · P/S ratio 5.05 · EPS (TTM) $3.62 · Net margin 20.8% · Return on equity 33.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 8%, ESTC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$54.23Fair Value $92.62Bull$176.95
Price $86.08 · Upside +7.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.91 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $429.5M and none bought.
SaleSteven SchuurmanDirector2× since Oct 5, 2026: 3,500,000 shares, avg. $92.43$323.5MOct 12, 2026
SaleMark Eugene DoddsChief Revenue Officer6× since Dec 5, 2025: 52,833 shares, avg. $74.01$3.9MOct 2, 2026
SaleShay BanonChief Technology Officer, Director7× since Dec 9, 2025: 1,024,700 shares, avg. $91.16$93.4MSep 14, 2026
SaleNavam WelihindaChief Financial Officer5× since Dec 9, 2025: 30,535 shares, avg. $70.22$2.1MSep 9, 2026
SaleCarolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer5× since Dec 9, 2025: 34,312 shares, avg. $75.87$2.6MSep 9, 2026
SaleJane E BoneGVP & CAO6× since Dec 9, 2025: 11,304 shares, avg. $80.95$915,063Sep 9, 2026
SaleAshutosh KulkarniChief Executive Officer, Director5× since Dec 9, 2025: 112,769 shares, avg. $69.57$7.8MSep 9, 2026
SaleKen ExnerChief Product Officer3× since Dec 9, 2025: 29,303 shares, avg. $62.61$1.8MJun 9, 2026
BuyPaul R. Auvil IIIDirector10,000 shares at $71.02$710,230Dec 1, 2025
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+79.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+79.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−21% → −2%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.8% a year for the price and +10.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Solid margins from efficient search and storage enable full telemetry retention for AI agents, yet thin public signals on moat factors leave limited evidence of durable advantage.
Main risk: AWS forked Elasticsearch into OpenSearch and offers it as a low-cost integrated cloud service, which could erode Elastic's pricing power and customer base in search and observability workloads.
Bull case: Elastic could leverage its unified data platform and efficient storage to power accurate, low-cost AI agents that retain full telemetry context, deepening its role in enterprise workflows against fragmented rivals.
Bear case: If hyperscalers and specialists capture more of the retrieval and observability layers with cheaper or bundled alternatives, Elastic's platform could lose relevance in production and security environments, limiting growth and pressuring margins.
Elastic is launching AI agents such as nightshift for observability and AlertZero for security that investigate issues using full telemetry context from across the stack. The platform's efficient search and storage make keeping that complete data practical, unlike setups forced to drop signals for cost reasons. Will these agentic features expand Elastic's role in production and security workflows more than they expose it to faster-moving rivals?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 628 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+7.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B7.12× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.05× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)28.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elastic NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESTC
Frequently asked questions
Is Elastic NV (ESTC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $92.62 versus a price of $86.08, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ESTC?
Our model-based fair value for Elastic NV is $92.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $86.08.
What is the quality score of ESTC?
Elastic NV has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $92.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario $54.23, optimistic scenario $176.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elastic NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $92.62, about +8% upside versus a price of $86.08 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $54.23, optimistic scenario $176.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Elastic NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Elastic NV (ESTC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Elastic NV would have to grow free cash flow by +13.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESTC use?
Our models discount Elastic NV at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Elastic NV that is +13.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Elastic NV (ESTC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Elastic NV grew +23.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Elastic NV (ESTC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Elastic NV (+13.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.49 %: that much free cash flow Elastic NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elastic NV it is $92.62 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $86.08. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Elastic NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ESTC trades below its calculated fair value: price $86.08, fair value $92.62, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESTC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($86.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($92.62). For Elastic NV the two are $6.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elastic NV worth?
The market values Elastic NV at about $9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $86.08; our models calculate a fair value of $92.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESTC?
Our models span a range for Elastic NV: cautious scenario $54.23, base $92.62, optimistic $176.95 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $86.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESTC?
Elastic NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $92.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.2, P/B 7.1, P/S 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ESTC?
The PEG ratio of Elastic NV is 4.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elastic NV (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 33.1%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESTC from its 52-week high?
Elastic NV trades at $86.08, about 19% below its 52-week high of $106.58 and 99% above the low of $43.30 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $92.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elastic NV?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elastic NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $86.08, calculated fair value $92.62 (+8%), Quality Score 63/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESTC calculated?
We run Elastic NV through 18 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $92.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Elastic NV currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $86.08. Our model-based fair value is $92.62, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elastic NV right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($54.23 to $176.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Elastic NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The market capitalisation of Elastic NV is $9.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elastic NV is 5.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Earnings per share at Elastic NV are $3.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The net margin of Elastic NV is 20.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elastic NV is 33.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elastic NV is −6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The operating margin of Elastic NV is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Revenue at Elastic NV is growing +15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Elastic NV (ESTC) hold?
Elastic NV holds more cash than debt, $179M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 7, 2026