Elastic NV (ESTC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Elastic NV $98.14, price $91.28, upside +7.5%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.30 – $186.78 · fair‑value band $56.57 – $184.74 · the $91.28 price screens below the $98.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally.
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Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally. It primarily offers Elastic's Search AI Platform, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as performs search, analysis, and visualization on that data. The company also provides Elastic search product a distributed, real-time vector database and analytics engine and data store for all types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the platforms; Elasticsearch search platform, a platform with retrieval algorithms and the ability to integrate with large language models; and elastic security, a security solution that provides unified protection to prevent, detect, and respond to threats. In addition, it offers Elastic Observability, a solution that enables unified analysis, including Logs analytics to search and analyze petabytes of structured and unstructured logs; infrastructure monitoring to gain visibility across cloud, on-premises, Kubernetes, serverless, and hosts; Application Performance Monitoring to stream native production-grade; digital experience monitoring; and large language models. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Elastic NV (ESTC) currently trades at $91.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $98.14, implying the stock looks roughly 7.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $130.70 per share, and 6 of the 18 models we run sit above the $91.28 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $32.49, and 12 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $56.57 (bear) to $184.74 (bull), the price of $91.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Elastic NV reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2026 versus $862M in FY2022, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was $368M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $9.8B · P/E ratio 27.4 · P/S ratio 5.80 · EPS (TTM) $3.33 · Net margin 21.1% · Return on equity 33.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.4% · Operating margin −3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 8%, ESTC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $56.57Fair Value $98.14Bull $184.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.34 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+79.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+79.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−21% → −2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.1% a year for the price and +9.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 710 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Return on assets−1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elastic NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESTC
Frequently asked questions
Is Elastic NV (ESTC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $98.14 versus a price of $91.28, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ESTC?
Our model-based fair value for Elastic NV is $98.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $91.28.
What is the quality score of ESTC?
Elastic NV has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $98.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.57, optimistic scenario $184.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elastic NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $98.14, about +8% upside versus a price of $91.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $56.57, optimistic scenario $184.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Elastic NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Elastic NV (ESTC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Elastic NV would have to grow free cash flow by +15.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESTC use?
Our models discount Elastic NV at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Elastic NV that is +15.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Elastic NV (ESTC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Elastic NV grew +23.4 % a year. The price currently implies +15.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Elastic NV (ESTC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Elastic NV (+15.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.29 %: that much free cash flow Elastic NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elastic NV it is $98.14 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $91.28. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Elastic NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ESTC trades below its calculated fair value: price $91.28, fair value $98.14, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESTC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($91.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($98.14). For Elastic NV the two are $6.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elastic NV worth?
The market values Elastic NV at about $9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $91.28; our models calculate a fair value of $98.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESTC?
Our models span a range for Elastic NV: cautious scenario $56.57, base $98.14, optimistic $184.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $91.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESTC?
Elastic NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $98.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.2, P/B 7.7, P/S 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ESTC?
The PEG ratio of Elastic NV is 4.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elastic NV (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 33.4%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESTC from its 52-week high?
Elastic NV trades at $91.28, about 9% below its 52-week high of $99.91 and 111% above the low of $43.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $98.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elastic NV?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elastic NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $91.28, calculated fair value $98.14 (+8%), Quality Score 60/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESTC calculated?
We run Elastic NV through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $98.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Elastic NV currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $91.28. Our model-based fair value is $98.14, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elastic NV right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($56.57 to $184.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Elastic NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The market capitalisation of Elastic NV is $9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elastic NV is 5.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Earnings per share at Elastic NV are $3.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The net margin of Elastic NV is 21.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elastic NV is 33.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elastic NV is −6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elastic NV (ESTC)?
The operating margin of Elastic NV is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elastic NV (ESTC)?
Revenue at Elastic NV is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Elastic NV (ESTC) hold?
Elastic NV holds more cash than debt, $179M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026