Elastic N.V (ESTC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $6.3B
Elastic N.V
ESTC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $41.51 to $41.83 (+0.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +25.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($31.37 to $147.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.30 – $186.78 · fair‑value band $31.37 – $147.64 · the $75.11 price screens above the $41.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Elastic N.V (ESTC) currently trades at $75.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.83, implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Elastic N.V generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of 21.1%. Revenue grew 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $179M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $31.37 (bear case) to $147.64 (bull case); at $75.11, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -44%, ESTC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($113.57) versus Asset-Based ($8.23). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally. It primarily offers Elastic's Search AI Platform, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as performs search, analysis, and visualization on that data. The company also provides Elastic search product a distributed, real-time vector database and analytics engine and data store for all types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the platforms; Elasticsearch search platform, a platform with retrieval algorithms and the ability to integrate with large language models; and elastic security, a security solution that provides unified protection to prevent, detect, and respond to threats. In addition, it offers Elastic Observability, a solution that enables unified analysis, including Logs analytics to search and analyze petabytes of structured and unstructured logs; infrastructure monitoring to gain visibility across cloud, on-premises, Kubernetes, serverless, and hosts; Application Performance Monitoring to stream native production-grade; digital experience monitoring; and large language models. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Elastic N.V reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2026 versus $862M in FY2022, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was $368M in FY2026.
ESTC screens 44% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Intuit, BILL, Workiva, Elastic, and Autodesk Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- Why Elastic (ESTC) Is Up 12.1% After Deepening Its Role in OpenAI Enterprise AI
- Elastic Advances the Agentic SOC, Bringing Security Teams Closer to Alert Zero
- Elastic (ESTC) Crossed Above the 200-Day Moving Average: What That Means for Investors
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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