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Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Evonik Industries AG $7.32, price $11.45, upside -36.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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EI
Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Evonik Industries AG
EVKIY · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $7.32 · Strongly overvalued (−36.0%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓8.7% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 35/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.89 – $12.79 · fair‑value band $6.15 – $7.52 · the $11.45 price screens above the $7.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Evonik Industries AG operates as a chemicals company in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. It operates through the Advanced Technologies, Custom Solutions, and Infrastructure segments.
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Evonik Industries AG operates as a chemicals company in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. It operates through the Advanced Technologies, Custom Solutions, and Infrastructure segments. The Advanced Technologies segment provides polymers for medical applications; crosslinkers; hydrogen peroxide, a sterilizing agent for cleaning silicon wafers and a bleaching agent for the paper and textile industries; fumed and precipitated silicas and silanes for the automotive, tire, electronics, and cosmetics industries; and D-/L-methionine and lysine for animal nutrition. Its Custom Solutions segment provides additives for coatings, adhesives, sealants, polyurethane foams, and lubricants for the cosmetic, cleaning, and pharmaceutical industries. The Infrastructure segment engages in the infrastructure activities and offers butadiene, MTBE, butene-1, isononanol, and DINP for use in the plastic and packaging industries, production of rubber and fuels, and as plasticizers in the construction and automotive sectors. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Essen, Germany.
Stock analysis
Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY) currently trades at $11.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.32, 36.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $8.54 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $11.45 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.66, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.15 (bear) to $7.52 (bull), the price of $11.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Evonik Industries AG reported revenue of €14.1B in FY2025 versus €15.0B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was €265M in FY2025, compounding −22.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.7B · P/E ratio 57.2 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Dividend yield 8.7% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −36%, EVKIY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.15
Fair Value $7.32
Bull $7.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$7.13
$10.66
$17.00
79
Growth DCF
$7.54
$10.94
$16.58
78
Residual Income
$7.14
$7.08
$7.22
76
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$7.13
$10.66
$17.00
79
Owner Earnings
$7.41
$11.04
$17.57
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$5.21
$8.31
$12.81
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$9.91
$16.46
$25.12
74
5Y P/E Exit
$3.42
$5.22
$7.40
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$5.74
$8.08
$10.54
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$8.71
$13.00
$17.61
69
10Y P/E Exit
$4.86
$6.21
$7.44
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.18
$2.66
$2.99
67
EPV
$2.91
$3.77
$4.52
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$4.08
$5.44
$6.80
63
P/S Multiple
$4.08
$5.44
$6.80
58
P/B Multiple
$4.08
$5.44
$6.80
55
EV/EBIT
$5.60
$8.31
$11.02
65
EV/EBITDA
$14.17
$19.74
$25.31
67
EV/Revenue
$4.51
$7.53
$10.55
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.90
$6.56
$9.80
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$7.54
$10.94
$16.58
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$5.21
$8.54
$12.68
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.14
$7.08
$7.22
76
ROIC Compounder
$2.91
$3.77
$4.52
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.91
$4.15
$5.40
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.7% vs −10.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.5%
EVKIY screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with Linde plc →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- BASF €10.3bn bid rejected by chemical rival Evonik, FT reports
- Evonik Industries (XTRA:EVK) Draws BASF Bid Interest, Is The Stock Fully Priced?
- Evonik gains after report of BASF takeover approach (update)
- BASF proposes takeover of German chemical rival Evonik, Financial Times reports
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 693 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $474.65 | $441.72 | −7% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $330.44 | $151.68 | −54% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $274.58 | $96.56 | −65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $279.19 | $121.30 | −57% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 238.00 TWD | 234.23 TWD | −2% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,360 | CHF 1,527 | −55% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥69.45 | ¥68.03 | −2% |
| DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR | CHF 92.30 | CHF 29.70 | −68% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,444 | ₹1,479 | −39% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $104.67 | $76.98 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.32 versus a price of $11.45, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EVKIY?
Our model-based fair value for Evonik Industries AG is $7.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.45.
What is the quality score of EVKIY?
Evonik Industries AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.15, optimistic scenario $7.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Evonik Industries AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.32, about −36% upside versus a price of $11.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.15, optimistic scenario $7.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
Evonik Industries AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €13.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Evonik Industries AG pay a dividend?
Evonik Industries AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.74% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Evonik Industries AG would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EVKIY use?
Our models discount Evonik Industries AG at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Evonik Industries AG that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Evonik Industries AG grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Evonik Industries AG (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.33 %: that much free cash flow Evonik Industries AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evonik Industries AG it is $7.32 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $11.45. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Evonik Industries AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, EVKIY trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.45, fair value $7.32, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EVKIY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.32). For Evonik Industries AG the two are $4.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evonik Industries AG worth?
The market values Evonik Industries AG at about $10.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $11.45; our models calculate a fair value of $7.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EVKIY?
Our models span a range for Evonik Industries AG: cautious scenario $6.15, base $7.32, optimistic $7.52 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $11.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EVKIY?
Evonik Industries AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.2 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.2, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of EVKIY?
The PEG ratio of Evonik Industries AG is 6.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Evonik Industries AG (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EVKIY from its 52-week high?
Evonik Industries AG trades at $11.45, about 3% below its 52-week high of $11.80 and 66% above the low of $6.89 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evonik Industries AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evonik Industries AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $11.45, calculated fair value $7.32 (−36%), Quality Score 55/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EVKIY calculated?
We run Evonik Industries AG through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Evonik Industries AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.45. Our model-based fair value is $7.32, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evonik Industries AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY) come from?
Earnings per share at Evonik Industries AG grew −11.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.2 %, EBIT margin −8.8 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Evonik Industries AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The market capitalisation of Evonik Industries AG is $10.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evonik Industries AG is 1.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
Earnings per share at Evonik Industries AG are $0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 57.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The dividend yield of Evonik Industries AG is 8.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The net margin of Evonik Industries AG is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evonik Industries AG is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evonik Industries AG is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
The operating margin of Evonik Industries AG is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
Revenue at Evonik Industries AG is growing −9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY)?
Earnings per share at Evonik Industries AG are growing −46.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Evonik Industries AG (EVKIY) carry?
The net debt of Evonik Industries AG is €3.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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