JFrog Ltd (FROG) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $11.0B
JFrog Ltd
FROG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $21.98 to $11.45 (−47.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −13.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($8.16 to $14.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.94 – $98.10 · fair‑value band $8.16 – $14.74 · the $83.04 price screens above the $11.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
JFrog Ltd (FROG) currently trades at $83.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.45, implying the stock looks roughly 86.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, JFrog Ltd generated revenue of $563M at a net margin of -10.9%. Revenue grew 25.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $57.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.16 (bear case) to $14.74 (bull case); at $83.04, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -86%, FROG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($28.31) versus Asset-Based ($4.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
JFrog Ltd. provides software supply chain platform in the United States, Israel, India, and internationally. The company offers JFrog Artifactory, a package repository that allows teams and organizations to store, update, and manage software packages; JFrog Curation functions as a guardian outside the software development pipeline, controlling the admission …
Full company description
JFrog Ltd. provides software supply chain platform in the United States, Israel, India, and internationally. The company offers JFrog Artifactory, a package repository that allows teams and organizations to store, update, and manage software packages; JFrog Curation functions as a guardian outside the software development pipeline, controlling the admission of packages into an organization, from open source or public repositories; JFrog Xray, scans JFrog Artifactory to secure all software packages; JFrog Advanced Security, an optional add-on for select JFrog subscriptions; and JFrog Runtime Security, an optional add-on for select JFrog subscriptions to work with other JFrog Security solutions. It also provides JFrog ML, a platform-integrated solution designed for data science and MLOps teams to transform and store data, build, train, and deploy models, and monitor the entire Machine Learning pipeline; JFrog AI Catalog, an extension of JFrog Curation functionality that allows companies to secure, govern, consume and deploy AI technologies; JFrog AppTrust, an optional component with application risk governance of DevGovOps requirements; JFrog Distribution that provides software package distribution; and JFrog Connect, a device management solution that allows companies to manage software updates and monitor performance in IoT device fleets. In addition, the company offers JFrog Pro that provides access to the universal version of JFrog Artifactory and ongoing updates, upgrades, and bug fixes; JFrog Pro X, a self-managed-only subscription; JFrog Enterprise X, offers cluster configuration, federated repositories, multi-region replication, larger enterprise-scale deployments, service-level agreement support, and deeper security; and JFrog Enterprise Plus, a full platform subscription option. It serves technology, financial services, retail, healthcare, and telecommunications organizations. JFrog Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
JFrog Ltd reported revenue of $532M in FY2025 versus $207M in FY2021, a compound +26.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$71.8M in FY2025.
FROG screens 86% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- A JFrog Director Sold Company Shares Worth $2.2 Million Amid a Massive Surge in Share Price. Here's a Deeper Look at the Sale.
- JFrog to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences
- JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Overcomes AI Challenges and Gains Momentum
- JFrog Faces Strong Artifactory Consumption, Curation Demand, Oppenheimer Says
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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