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Jfrog Ltd (FROG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Jfrog Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · ISIN IL0011684185

JL Jfrog Ltd logo Thin data Sep 18, 2026

Jfrog Ltd

FROG · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $28.56 · Strongly overvalued (−69%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +28.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -10.9% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Insider activity 42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$104.03 $16.94 Fair Value $28.56 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $16.94 – $104.03 · fair‑value band $15.46 – $43.67 · the $92.81 price screens above the $28.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

JFrog Ltd. provides software supply chain platform in the United States, Israel, India, and internationally.

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JFrog Ltd. provides software supply chain platform in the United States, Israel, India, and internationally. The company offers JFrog Artifactory, a package repository that allows teams and organizations to store, update, and manage software packages; JFrog Curation functions as a guardian outside the software development pipeline, controlling the admission of packages into an organization, from open source or public repositories; JFrog Xray, scans JFrog Artifactory to secure all software packages; JFrog Advanced Security, an optional add-on for select JFrog subscriptions; and JFrog Runtime Security, an optional add-on for select JFrog subscriptions to work with other JFrog Security solutions. It also provides JFrog ML, a platform-integrated solution designed for data science and MLOps teams to transform and store data, build, train, and deploy models, and monitor the entire Machine Learning pipeline; JFrog AI Catalog, an extension of JFrog Curation functionality that allows companies to secure, govern, consume and deploy AI technologies; JFrog AppTrust, an optional component with application risk governance of DevGovOps requirements; JFrog Distribution that provides software package distribution; and JFrog Connect, a device management solution that allows companies to manage software updates and monitor performance in IoT device fleets. In addition, the company offers JFrog Pro that provides access to the universal version of JFrog Artifactory and ongoing updates, upgrades, and bug fixes; JFrog Pro X, a self-managed-only subscription; JFrog Enterprise X, offers cluster configuration, federated repositories, multi-region replication, larger enterprise-scale deployments, service-level agreement support, and deeper security; and JFrog Enterprise Plus, a full platform subscription option. It serves technology, financial services, retail, healthcare, and telecommunications organizations. JFrog Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Stock analysis

Jfrog Ltd (FROG) currently trades at $92.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.56, implying the stock looks roughly 225.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.74 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $92.81 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.91, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $15.46 (bear) to $43.67 (bull), the price of $92.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Jfrog Ltd reported revenue of $532M in FY2025 versus $207M in FY2021, a compound +26.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$71.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $10.8B · P/S ratio 18.5 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5300 · Net margin −13.5% · Return on equity −7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.1% · Operating margin −7.4% · Revenue (TTM) $563M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 173% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −69%, FROG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.46 Fair Value $28.56 Bull $43.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $20.40 $31.74 $67.85 73
Growth DCF $19.23 $35.22 $67.55 72
5Y Revenue Exit $14.69 $24.50 $44.98 67
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $20.40 $31.74 $67.85 73
5Y Revenue Exit $14.69 $24.50 $44.98 67
10Y Revenue Exit $16.12 $33.54 $44.27 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue $11.32 $15.90 $20.48 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.66 $4.91 $7.33 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $19.23 $35.22 $67.55 72
Rev-Margin DCF $15.21 $27.94 $52.69 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 98
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 23
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 88
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 24
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.4% (2020) → −16.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+19.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+17.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+15.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+13.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+11.7%

FROG screens 225% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 701 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −11% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 26% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 12.38× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 19.51× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 77.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €186.56 €156.00 −16%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$178.41 C$112.02 −37%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $71.43 $102.51 +44%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $255.65 $344.41 +35%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $141.90 $156.09 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $273.96 $224.24 −18%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $322.98 $74.65 −77%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $230.27 $32.92 −86%
Adobe Inc ADBE $257.76 $471.62 +83%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $276.53 $177.51 −36%

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Jfrog Ltd · Fair Value
$28.56 −225%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jfrog Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FROG

Frequently asked questions

Is Jfrog Ltd (FROG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.56 versus a price of $92.81, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FROG?
Our model-based fair value for Jfrog Ltd is $28.56 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $92.81.
What is the quality score of FROG?
Jfrog Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.56 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.46, optimistic scenario $43.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jfrog Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.56, about −69% upside versus a price of $92.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.46, optimistic scenario $43.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Jfrog Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $563M (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jfrog Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +34.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.7 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FROG use?
Our models discount Jfrog Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jfrog Ltd that is +34.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jfrog Ltd (FROG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jfrog Ltd grew +28.7 % a year. The price currently implies +34.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jfrog Ltd (FROG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jfrog Ltd (+34.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.32 %: that much free cash flow Jfrog Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jfrog Ltd it is $28.56 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $92.81. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jfrog Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, FROG trades above its calculated fair value: price $92.81, fair value $28.56, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FROG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($92.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.56). For Jfrog Ltd the two are $64.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jfrog Ltd worth?
The market values Jfrog Ltd at about $10.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $92.81; our models calculate a fair value of $28.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FROG?
Our models span a range for Jfrog Ltd: cautious scenario $15.46, base $28.56, optimistic $43.67 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $92.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jfrog Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −7.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FROG from its 52-week high?
Jfrog Ltd trades at $92.81, about 4% below its 52-week high of $89.16 and 173% above the low of $34.05 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jfrog Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jfrog Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $92.81, calculated fair value $28.56 (−69%), Quality Score 52/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FROG calculated?
We run Jfrog Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Jfrog Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $92.81. Our model-based fair value is $28.56, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jfrog Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($15.46 to $43.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Jfrog Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The market capitalisation of Jfrog Ltd is $10.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jfrog Ltd is 18.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Earnings per share at Jfrog Ltd are $−0.5300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The net margin of Jfrog Ltd is −13.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jfrog Ltd is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jfrog Ltd is −8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The operating margin of Jfrog Ltd is −7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Revenue at Jfrog Ltd is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Jfrog Ltd (FROG) hold?
Jfrog Ltd holds more cash than debt, $57.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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