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Jfrog Ltd (FROG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jfrog Ltd stock $28.47, price $74.62, that is 61.8% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology US · Home Israel · ISIN IL0011684185

JL Jfrog Ltd logo Thin data Nov 1, 2026

Jfrog Ltd

FROG · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 62% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter +29% vs. a year ago.
Quality 53/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +28.7 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $183.5M (6M)
Fair value $28.47 · Strongly overvalued (−61.8%)
Loss-making · -7.4% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 16/100 · thin data
Thin data

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Cloud-native rivals like Cloudsmith

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$104.03 $16.94 Fair Value $28.47 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $16.94 – $104.03 · fair‑value band $15.37 – $42.96 · the $74.62 price screens above the $28.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.

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Company profile

JFrog Ltd. provides software supply chain platform in the United States, Israel, India, and internationally.

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The company offers JFrog Artifactory, a package repository that allows teams and organizations to store, update, and manage software packages; JFrog Curation functions as a guardian outside the software development pipeline, controlling the admission of packages into an organization, from open source or public repositories; JFrog Xray, scans JFrog Artifactory to secure all software packages; JFrog Advanced Security, an optional add-on for select JFrog subscriptions; and JFrog Runtime Security, an optional add-on for select JFrog subscriptions to work with other JFrog Security solutions.

It also provides JFrog ML, a platform-integrated solution designed for data science and MLOps teams to transform and store data, build, train, and deploy models, and monitor the entire Machine Learning pipeline; JFrog AI Catalog, an extension of JFrog Curation functionality that allows companies to secure, govern, consume and deploy AI technologies; JFrog AppTrust, an optional component with application risk governance of DevGovOps requirements; JFrog Distribution that provides software package distribution; and JFrog Connect, a device management solution that allows companies to manage software updates and monitor performance in IoT device fleets.

In addition, the company offers JFrog Pro that provides access to the universal version of JFrog Artifactory and ongoing updates, upgrades, and bug fixes; JFrog Pro X, a self-managed-only subscription; JFrog Enterprise X, offers cluster configuration, federated repositories, multi-region replication, larger enterprise-scale deployments, service-level agreement support, and deeper security; and JFrog Enterprise Plus, a full platform subscription option.

It serves technology, financial services, retail, healthcare, and telecommunications organizations. JFrog Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Stock analysis

Jfrog Ltd (FROG) currently trades at $74.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.47, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.47 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $74.62 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.22, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $15.37 (bear) to $42.96 (bull), the price of $74.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Jfrog Ltd reported revenue of $532M in FY2025 versus $207M in FY2021, a compound +26.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$71.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $9.4B Mid · P/S ratio 19.8 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3400 · Net margin −7.4% · Return on equity −4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.1% · Operating margin −7.1% · Revenue (TTM) $600M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −62%, FROG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.37 Fair Value $28.47 Bull $42.96
Price $74.62 · Downside -61.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $18.92 $28.47 $57.96 74
Growth DCF $17.79 $30.95 $56.33 72
5Y Revenue Exit $14.18 $23.50 $42.96 67
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $18.92 $28.47 $57.96 74
5Y Revenue Exit $14.18 $23.50 $42.96 67
10Y Revenue Exit $15.37 $31.51 $41.34 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue $10.97 $15.47 $19.97 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.12 $3.22 $4.02 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.79 $30.95 $56.33 72
Rev-Margin DCF $14.67 $26.80 $50.36 66

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 15
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 98
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 80
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 54
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 22
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 68
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 79
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 28
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $183.5M and none bought.

  • SaleBarry ZwarensteinDirector6× since Mar 26, 2026: 7,500 shares, avg. $73.49$551,163Oct 20, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleBen Haim ShlomiCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, Director20× since Nov 6, 2025: 744,522 shares, avg. $70.53$52.5MOct 7, 2026
  • SaleYoav LandmanCHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER, Director17× since Dec 1, 2025: 1,110,000 shares, avg. $81.87$90.9MOct 5, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleFrederic SimonDirector15× since Nov 7, 2025: 1,297,117 shares, avg. $73.38$95.2MOct 1, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleTali NotmanCHIEF REVENUE OFFICER8× since Dec 2, 2025: 167,290 shares, avg. $919.10$153.8MSep 8, 2026
  • SaleEduard GrabscheidCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER6× since Dec 2, 2025: 70,751 shares, avg. $65.44$4.6MSep 3, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleElisa SteeleDirector4× since Dec 5, 2025: 7,382 shares, avg. $64.61$476,934Aug 28, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleYossi SelaDirector4× since Dec 5, 2025: 125,000 shares, avg. $66.05$8.3MJul 16, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleYvonne WassenaarDirector4× since Dec 2, 2025: 6,060 shares, avg. $56.71$343,680May 22, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleAndrew L. VitusDirector5,982 shares at $62.17$371,901Nov 25, 2025

Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.4% (2020) → −16.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.4% a year for the price and +13.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+22.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+18.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+16.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+14.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+12.0%

FROG screens overvalued: fair value 62% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: JFrog's main strength lies in rapid cloud revenue growth from security features and AI integrations, while its main weakness remains negative profitability with limited signals of durable advantage.
Main risk: Rivals such as Cloudsmith could attract customers with simpler cloud-native artifact management and force JFrog to lower prices or margins on its Artifactory platform.
Bull case: JFrog could leverage its AgentSecOps expansions and AI asset governance to retain and grow enterprise customers seeking secure supply chains for autonomous agents.
Bear case: If cloud-native alternatives gain traction, JFrog might lose market share in artifact management as customers migrate to simpler or lower-cost options from rivals like Cloudsmith or Sonatype.
JFrog has expanded its platform with integrations for AI coding agents and tools for zero-touch remediation in the software supply chain. Cloud revenue grew 53 percent year over year in the latest quarter, now making up over half of total sales as security features drive adoption. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the shift toward governing AI-generated artifacts expand the addressable market enough to justify the premium, or will slower enterprise uptake cap the upside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 633 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −61.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −7.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −7.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 28.7% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 10.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 15.73× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow 66.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Adobe Inc ADBE $246.44 $463.72 +88% vs FROG
Salesforce, Inc CRM $222.41 $342.73 +54% vs FROG
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $68.78 $101.25 +47% vs FROG
Intuit Inc INTU $354.84 $459.14 +29% vs FROG
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $102.36 $119.69 +17% vs FROG
SAP SE SAP €215.75 €173.59 −20% vs FROG
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $311.43 $225.48 −28% vs FROG
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $307.14 $150.40 −51% vs FROG
Shopify Inc SHOP $143.75 $68.68 −52% vs FROG
Snowflake Inc SNOW $269.54 $73.81 −73% vs FROG

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jfrog Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FROG

Frequently asked questions

Is Jfrog Ltd (FROG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.47 versus a price of $74.62, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FROG?
Our model-based fair value for Jfrog Ltd is $28.47 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $74.62.
What is the quality score of FROG?
Jfrog Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.47 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.37, optimistic scenario $42.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jfrog Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.47, about 62% lower versus a price of $74.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.37, optimistic scenario $42.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Jfrog Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $600M (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jfrog Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +30.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.7 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FROG use?
Our models discount Jfrog Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jfrog Ltd that is +30.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jfrog Ltd (FROG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jfrog Ltd grew +28.7 % a year. The price currently implies +30.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jfrog Ltd (FROG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jfrog Ltd (+30.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.57 %: that much free cash flow Jfrog Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jfrog Ltd it is $28.47 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $74.62. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jfrog Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, FROG trades above its calculated fair value: price $74.62, fair value $28.47, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FROG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($74.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.47). For Jfrog Ltd the two are $46.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jfrog Ltd worth?
The market values Jfrog Ltd at about $9.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $74.62; our models calculate a fair value of $28.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FROG?
Our models span a range for Jfrog Ltd: cautious scenario $15.37, base $28.47, optimistic $42.96 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $74.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jfrog Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −4.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FROG from its 52-week high?
Jfrog Ltd trades at $74.62, about 28% below its 52-week high of $104.03 and 115% above the low of $34.75 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jfrog Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jfrog Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $74.62, calculated fair value $28.47 (−62%), Quality Score 53/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FROG calculated?
We run Jfrog Ltd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Jfrog Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $74.62. Our model-based fair value is $28.47, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jfrog Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($15.37 to $42.96). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Jfrog Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The market capitalisation of Jfrog Ltd is $9.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jfrog Ltd is 19.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Earnings per share at Jfrog Ltd are $−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The net margin of Jfrog Ltd is −7.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jfrog Ltd is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jfrog Ltd is −8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
The operating margin of Jfrog Ltd is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jfrog Ltd (FROG)?
Revenue at Jfrog Ltd is growing +28.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Jfrog Ltd (FROG) hold?
Jfrog Ltd holds more cash than debt, $57.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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