Genesco Inc (GCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Genesco Inc $24.39, price $34.16, upside -28.6%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.20 – $73.49 · fair‑value band $22.88 – $27.82 · the $34.16 price screens above the $24.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group.
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Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories for young men, women, and children through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce operations. The Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment is involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories primarily for men. The Genesco Brands Group segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and other brands. The company provides its products through catalogs and e-commerce websites, including journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.com, and nashvilleshoewarehouse.com. It operates retail stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland primarily under the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy brands. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Genesco Inc (GCO) currently trades at $34.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.39, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $72.03 per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the $34.16 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $19.58, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.88 (bear) to $27.82 (bull), the price of $34.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Genesco Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2026 versus $2.4B in FY2022, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $13.3M in FY2026, compounding −41.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $396M · P/E ratio 18.5 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) $1.85 · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% · Operating margin −5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −29%, GCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.88Fair Value $24.39Bull $27.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.20 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−24.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27% vs −11%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.3% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−29% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.5× · Pricier than median
P/B0.70× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.16× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF4.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA3.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.68× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)14· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Genesco Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Genesco Inc (GCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.39 versus a price of $34.16, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GCO?
Our model-based fair value for Genesco Inc is $24.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.16.
What is the quality score of GCO?
Genesco Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genesco Inc (GCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.88, optimistic scenario $27.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genesco Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.39, about −29% upside versus a price of $34.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.88, optimistic scenario $27.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
Genesco Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Genesco Inc (GCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genesco Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -18.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GCO use?
Our models discount Genesco Inc at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.82, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genesco Inc that is -18.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genesco Inc (GCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genesco Inc grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -18.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genesco Inc (GCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genesco Inc (-18.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.06 %: that much free cash flow Genesco Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genesco Inc it is $24.39 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $34.16. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Genesco Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GCO trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.16, fair value $24.39, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.39). For Genesco Inc the two are $9.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genesco Inc worth?
The market values Genesco Inc at about $396M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $34.16; our models calculate a fair value of $24.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GCO?
Our models span a range for Genesco Inc: cautious scenario $22.88, base $24.39, optimistic $27.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $34.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GCO?
Genesco Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.39 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 23.6 (reported 26.9). Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GCO?
The PEG ratio of Genesco Inc is 0.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genesco Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GCO from its 52-week high?
Genesco Inc trades at $34.16, about 20% below its 52-week high of $42.72 and 56% above the low of $21.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genesco Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genesco Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $34.16, calculated fair value $24.39 (−29%), Quality Score 65/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GCO calculated?
We run Genesco Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Genesco Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $34.16. Our model-based fair value is $24.39, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genesco Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Genesco Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
The market capitalisation of Genesco Inc is $396M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genesco Inc is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
Earnings per share at Genesco Inc are $1.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
The net margin of Genesco Inc is 0.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genesco Inc is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genesco Inc is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genesco Inc (GCO)?
The operating margin of Genesco Inc is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genesco Inc (GCO)?
Revenue at Genesco Inc is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Genesco Inc (GCO)?
Earnings per share at Genesco Inc are growing +41.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Genesco Inc (GCO) carry?
The net debt of Genesco Inc is $416M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026