Genesco Inc (GCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $396M
Genesco Inc
GCO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $26.28 to $21.40 (−18.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +15.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.20 – $73.49 · fair‑value band $19.71 – $25.39 · the $37.98 price screens above the $21.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Genesco Inc (GCO) currently trades at $37.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.40, implying the stock looks roughly 43.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Genesco Inc generated revenue of $2.4B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at $416M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.71 (bear case) to $25.39 (bull case); at $37.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -44%, GCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($69.49) versus Earnings-Based ($19.58). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group.
Full company description
Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories for young men, women, and children through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce operations. The Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment is involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories primarily for men. The Genesco Brands Group segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and other brands. The company provides its products through catalogs and e-commerce websites, including journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.com, and nashvilleshoewarehouse.com. It operates retail stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland primarily under the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy brands. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Genesco Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2026 versus $2.4B in FY2022, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $13.3M in FY2026, compounding −41.7%/yr from FY2022.
GCO screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Colin Temple Leaves Genesco-owned Retailer Schuh After Nearly 40 Years
- Is Genesco (GCO) Stock Outpacing Its Retail-Wholesale Peers This Year?
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 106 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX | €58.44 | €23.29 | -60% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $154.46 | $84.95 | -45% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$40.00 | HK$15.37 | -62% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $233.46 | $118.41 | -49% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $327.72 | $147.08 | -55% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,903 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $116.33 | $299.63 | +158% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$160.05 | C$87.26 | -45% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.35 | $37.12 | +82% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $72.95 | $92.88 | +27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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