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PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what PT Gudang Garam Tbk is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
PT Gudang Garam Tbk
GDNGY · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $8.42 · Strongly undervalued (+92%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.71% dividend yield
!Narrow moat 32/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.70 – $10.29 · fair‑value band $8.42 – $8.78 · the $4.38 price screens below the $8.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments.
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PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments. The company offers hand-rolled, machine-made, and klobot clove cigarettes under the Gudang Garam Family, Surya Family, and GG Family brand names. It also involved in trading business; and provision of safety protective equipment, airport, toll road, and construction services. In addition, the company offers tobacco processing, non-scheduled air transportation, infrastructure, entertainment, and tourism services. The company was formerly known as PT Perusahaan Rokok Tjap "Gudang Garam" Kediri. PT Gudang Garam Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Kediri, Indonesia. PT Gudang Garam Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Suryaduta Investama.
Stock analysis
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, (GDNGY) currently trades at $4.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.42, implying the stock looks roughly 48.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $20.13 per share, and 19 of the 23 models we run sit above the $4.38 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.15, and 4 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.42 (bear) to $8.78 (bull), the price of $4.38 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, reported revenue of 90.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 125T IDR in FY2021, a compound −7.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −27.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) $0.3500 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 92%, GDNGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.42
Fair Value $8.42
Bull $8.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2464 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$22.22
$30.74
$41.72
81
Growth DCF
$22.46
$30.01
$39.21
80
5Y EBITDA Exit
$12.68
$16.11
$19.76
77
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$22.22
$30.74
$41.72
81
5Y Revenue Exit
$12.68
$16.11
$20.08
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$12.68
$16.11
$19.76
77
5Y P/E Exit
$12.89
$16.49
$20.00
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$16.34
$20.13
$24.52
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$16.48
$20.13
$24.31
70
10Y P/E Exit
$16.60
$20.36
$24.47
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.73
$7.53
$9.88
65
Lynch FV
$1.50
$2.15
$2.79
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.50
$2.15
$2.79
57
EPV
$3.73
$4.11
$4.43
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.32
$8.42
$10.53
63
P/S Multiple
$5.11
$6.82
$8.52
58
P/B Multiple
$5.11
$6.82
$8.52
55
EV/EBIT
$8.66
$11.24
$13.82
66
EV/EBITDA
$6.84
$8.81
$10.79
67
EV/Revenue
$6.45
$8.81
$11.18
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.99
$10.71
$15.98
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$22.46
$30.01
$39.21
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$12.68
$16.51
$20.94
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$10.71
$10.03
$7.53
71
ROIC Compounder
$3.73
$4.11
$4.43
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.02
$7.17
$9.32
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
’14
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’24
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−23.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27% vs −13%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−5.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.3%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Tobacco
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10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $191.06 | $103.71 | −46% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $55.24 | $91.58 | +66% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.98 | $75.66 | +10% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹259.85 | ₹285.84 | +10% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 171,800 KRW | 103,453 KRW | −40% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 730.00 IDR | 1,018 IDR | +39% |
| Smoore International Holdings 6969 | HK$9.52 | HK$4.21 | −56% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹1,927 | ₹1,126 | −42% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,800 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +23% |
| RLX Technology Inc RLX | $1.77 | $2.38 | +34% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.42 versus a price of $4.38, about +92% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GDNGY?
Our model-based fair value for PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is $8.42 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.38.
What is the quality score of GDNGY?
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.42 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $8.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Gudang Garam Tbk, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.42, about +92% upside versus a price of $4.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $8.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 92.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does PT Gudang Garam Tbk, pay a dividend?
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Gudang Garam Tbk, would have to grow free cash flow by -19.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GDNGY use?
Our models discount PT Gudang Garam Tbk, at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Gudang Garam Tbk, that is -19.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Gudang Garam Tbk, grew -4.7 % a year. The price currently implies -19.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Gudang Garam Tbk, (-19.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.62 %: that much free cash flow PT Gudang Garam Tbk, produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Gudang Garam Tbk, it is $8.42 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $4.38. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Gudang Garam Tbk, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, GDNGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.38, fair value $8.42, a gap of about +92% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GDNGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.42). For PT Gudang Garam Tbk, the two are $4.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Gudang Garam Tbk, worth?
The market values PT Gudang Garam Tbk, at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $4.38; our models calculate a fair value of $8.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GDNGY?
Our models span a range for PT Gudang Garam Tbk,: cautious scenario $8.42, base $8.42, optimistic $8.78 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $4.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GDNGY?
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Gudang Garam Tbk, (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 4.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GDNGY from its 52-week high?
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, trades at $4.38, about 3% below its 52-week high of $4.26 and 125% above the low of $1.95 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Gudang Garam Tbk,?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Gudang Garam Tbk, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $4.38, calculated fair value $8.42 (+92%), Quality Score 65/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GDNGY calculated?
We run PT Gudang Garam Tbk, through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Gudang Garam Tbk, currently trades 92 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with PT Gudang Garam Tbk, right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.42). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band ($8.42 to $8.78), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY) come from?
Earnings per share at PT Gudang Garam Tbk, grew −9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −13.2 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PT Gudang Garam Tbk,
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
The market capitalisation of PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is 0.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
Earnings per share at PT Gudang Garam Tbk, are $0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
The dividend yield of PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is 3.7% (payout 46.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
The net margin of PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
Revenue at PT Gudang Garam Tbk, is growing −12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY)?
Earnings per share at PT Gudang Garam Tbk, are growing +13.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GDNGY) hold?
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, holds more cash than debt, 2.9T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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