Gafisa SA (GFASY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gafisa SA stock $0.04, price $0.02, upside +77.6%, quality 16 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0191 – $653.94 · fair‑value band $0.0319 – $0.0480 · the $0.0210 price screens below the $0.0373 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
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Gafisa S.A. operates as a development and construction company under the Gafisa brand name in Brazil. The company is involved in residential, commercial projects.
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It also offers technical consultancy services, real estate management and construction services, and development and implementation of marketing strategies for real estate projects. Gafisa S.A. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Gafisa SA (GFASY) currently trades at $0.0210, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0373, implying the stock looks roughly 43.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $0.0319 (bear) to $0.0480 (bull), the price of $0.0210 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Gafisa SA ADR reported revenue of R$608M in FY2025 versus R$818M in FY2021, a compound −7.2%/yr. Reported net income was −R$534M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−1.44 · Net margin −87.9% · Return on equity −34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.1% · Operating margin −8.3% · Revenue (TTM) R$493M · Revenue growth (YoY) −55.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 7 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 95% below its 52-week high and 950% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 64% fair-value upside, at 78%, GFASY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.0319Fair Value $0.0373Bull$0.0480
Price $0.0210 · Upside +77.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$0.0338$0.0439$0.064154
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.0338$0.0439$0.064154
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −12.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
21.6% (2019) → −55.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 63 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score16 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+77.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−11.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−124.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−8.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−55.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gafisa SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFASY
Frequently asked questions
Is Gafisa SA (GFASY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0373 versus a price of $0.0210, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GFASY?
Our model-based fair value for Gafisa SA ADR is $0.0373 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0210.
What is the quality score of GFASY?
Gafisa SA ADR has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0373 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0319, optimistic scenario $0.0480. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gafisa SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0373, about +78% upside versus a price of $0.0210 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0319, optimistic scenario $0.0480. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
Gafisa SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$493M (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gafisa SA ADR it is $0.0373 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of $0.0210. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gafisa SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, GFASY trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0210, fair value $0.0373, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFASY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0210); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0373). For Gafisa SA ADR the two are $0.0163 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gafisa SA ADR worth?
The market values Gafisa SA ADR at about $3.1M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is $0.0210; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0373 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFASY?
Our models span a range for Gafisa SA ADR: cautious scenario $0.0319, base $0.0373, optimistic $0.0480 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price $0.0210). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GFASY?
The PEG ratio of Gafisa SA ADR is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 12, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gafisa SA ADR (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity −34.7%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFASY from its 52-week high?
Gafisa SA ADR trades at $0.0210, about 95% below its 52-week high of $0.3900 and 950% above the low of $0.0020 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0373 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gafisa SA ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gafisa SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price $0.0210, calculated fair value $0.0373 (+78%), Quality Score 16/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFASY calculated?
We run Gafisa SA ADR through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0373, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Gafisa SA ADR currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $0.0210. Our model-based fair value is $0.0373, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gafisa SA ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (16/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.0319). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Gafisa SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
The market capitalisation of Gafisa SA ADR is $3.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
Earnings per share at Gafisa SA ADR are $−1.44. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
The net margin of Gafisa SA ADR is −87.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gafisa SA ADR is −34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gafisa SA ADR is −3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
The operating margin of Gafisa SA ADR is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
Revenue at Gafisa SA ADR is growing −55.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gafisa SA (GFASY)?
Earnings per share at Gafisa SA ADR are growing −11.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gafisa SA (GFASY) generate?
The free cash flow of Gafisa SA ADR is −R$195M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gafisa SA (GFASY) carry?
The net debt of Gafisa SA ADR is R$1.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 12, 2026