Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk (GIAA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · ID · Market cap 22.0T IDR
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from 0.0200 IDR to 44.61 IDR (+222,950.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +16.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 41% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (22.43 IDR to 73.37 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 31.00 IDR – 346.59 IDR · fair‑value band 22.43 IDR – 73.37 IDR · the 63.00 IDR price screens above the 44.61 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk (GIAA) currently trades at 63.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 44.61 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk generated revenue of 3.3B IDR at a net margin of -9.0%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. Net debt stands at 2.8B IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 22.43 IDR (bear case) to 73.37 IDR (bull case); at 63.00 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at -29%, GIAA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (44.61 IDR) versus DCF Models (29.74 IDR). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides airline services in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Flight Operation, Aircraft Maintenance Services, and Other Operations segments. The company undertakes the scheduled and non-scheduled commercial air transportation for passengers, cargoes, and mail.
Full company description
PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides airline services in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Flight Operation, Aircraft Maintenance Services, and Other Operations segments. The company undertakes the scheduled and non-scheduled commercial air transportation for passengers, cargoes, and mail. It also offers aircraft repair and maintenance, as well as catering services and ground handling services, passenger services, information system services, and other services; ticketing and aircraft rental services; aircraft maintenance and overhaul; and hotel services. PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1949 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk reported revenue of 3.2B IDR in FY2025 versus 1.3B IDR in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was −319M IDR in FY2025.
GIAA screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Peer Group
Airlines · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $89.93 | $115.82 | +29% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $125.12 | $175.62 | +40% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $44.98 | $14.76 | -67% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,333 | ₹3,073 | -42% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.94 | ¥7.16 | +21% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.44 | $106.79 | +104% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.08 | ¥1.28 | -75% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.86 | €18.94 | +141% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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