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Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk (GIAA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ID · Market cap 22.0T IDR

GI Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk GIAA · JK
Price63.00 IDR
Fair Value44.61 IDR
Upside-29.2%
Quality20/100
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Risks

!Trades 41% ABOVE our fair value of 44.61 IDR
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.0% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.3 %/yr)
Loss-making · -9.0% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: Medium Range 22.43 IDR – 73.37 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 4 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from 0.0200 IDR to 44.61 IDR (+222,950.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +16.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and trading another 41% above our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

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What matters now

  • Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide (22.43 IDR to 73.37 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

346.59 IDR 31.00 IDR Fair Value 44.61 IDR Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 31.00 IDR – 346.59 IDR · fair‑value band 22.43 IDR – 73.37 IDR · the 63.00 IDR price screens above the 44.61 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk (GIAA) currently trades at 63.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 44.61 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk generated revenue of 3.3B IDR at a net margin of -9.0%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. Net debt stands at 2.8B IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 22.43 IDR (bear case) to 73.37 IDR (bull case); at 63.00 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at -29%, GIAA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA 29.74 IDR 44.61 IDR 44.61 IDR 54
EV/EBIT 14.87 IDR 53
5Y EBITDA Exit 14.87 IDR 29.74 IDR 44.61 IDR 41
All 4 models by family
DCF Models
5Y EBITDA Exit 14.87 IDR 29.74 IDR 44.61 IDR 41
10Y EBITDA Exit 14.87 IDR 29.74 IDR 44.61 IDR 37
Multiples
EV/EBIT 14.87 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 29.74 IDR 44.61 IDR 44.61 IDR 54

Widest divergence: Multiples (44.61 IDR) versus DCF Models (29.74 IDR). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).

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Key figures & financial health

Net margin -9.0% TTM
Return on equity -531% TTM
Return on assets 1.7% TTM
Operating margin 6.3% TTM
EPS (TTM) -1.08 IDR
Revenue (TTM) 3.3B IDR TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.4% 3y avg +14.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -81.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 70.3M IDR FY2025
Net debt 2.8B IDR FY2025 · ≈ 39.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 27
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides airline services in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Flight Operation, Aircraft Maintenance Services, and Other Operations segments. The company undertakes the scheduled and non-scheduled commercial air transportation for passengers, cargoes, and mail.

Full company description

PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides airline services in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Flight Operation, Aircraft Maintenance Services, and Other Operations segments. The company undertakes the scheduled and non-scheduled commercial air transportation for passengers, cargoes, and mail. It also offers aircraft repair and maintenance, as well as catering services and ground handling services, passenger services, information system services, and other services; ticketing and aircraft rental services; aircraft maintenance and overhaul; and hotel services. PT. Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1949 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk reported revenue of 3.2B IDR in FY2025 versus 1.3B IDR in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was −319M IDR in FY2025.

Growth Quality 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.2B IDR
Latest YoY
−7.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−31.7%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +24.2%/yr
FY21 1.3B IDR
FY22 2.1B IDR
FY23 2.9B IDR
FY24 3.4B IDR
FY25 3.2B IDR
Net income
FY21 −4.2B IDR
FY22 3.7B IDR
FY23 250M IDR
FY24 −72.7M IDR
FY25 −319M IDR

GIAA screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GIAA

Peer Group

Airlines · 59 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −29% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Debt / equity 164.86× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.68× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 31.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 53
FUTURE27 · sector 47
PAST0 · sector 49
HEALTH0 · sector 69
DIVIDEND0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $89.93 $115.82 +29%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $125.12 $175.62 +40%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $44.98 $14.76 -67%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,333 ₹3,073 -42%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.09 SGD 7.89 SGD +11%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.94 ¥7.16 +21%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.44 $106.79 +104%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥5.08 ¥1.28 -75%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.86 €18.94 +141%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk (GIAA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 44.61 IDR versus a price of 63.00 IDR, about −29% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GIAA?
Our model-based fair value for Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk is 44.61 IDR (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 63.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of GIAA?
Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk (GIAA)?
Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B IDR (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GIAA?
The net profit margin of Garuda Indonesia Persero Tbk is about -9.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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