Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A BRL 7.08, price BRL 10.29, upside -31.2%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$3.74 – R$918,557 · fair‑value band R$5.31 – R$8.85 · the R$10.29 price screens above the R$7.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Metalurgica Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies long steel products in Brazil, the Americas, and internationally. The company offers rebars, profiles, wires, thick plates, hot-rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rod, structural profiles, and flat steel and iron ore, as well as bars, including special steels.
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Metalurgica Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies long steel products in Brazil, the Americas, and internationally. The company offers rebars, profiles, wires, thick plates, hot-rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rod, structural profiles, and flat steel and iron ore, as well as bars, including special steels. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A.was formerly known as METALÚRGICA HUGO GERDAU S.A and changed its name to Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. in June 1965. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Indac - Indústria, Administração e Comércio S.A.
Stock analysis
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) currently trades at R$10.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$7.08, 31.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$12.12 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the R$10.29 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$2.04, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$5.31 (bear) to R$8.85 (bull), the price of R$10.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A reported revenue of R$69.9B in FY2025 versus R$78.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$476M in FY2025, compounding −44.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$13.6B (≈ $2.7B) · P/E ratio 16.3 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) R$0.6000 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −31%, GOAU3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$5.31Fair Value R$7.08Bull R$8.85
Price R$10.29 · Upside -31.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.1659 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.0% vs −3.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−31.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.2% · Below median
Return on assets15.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.69× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.71× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.58× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF13.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA6.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.57× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)10· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)65· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)74· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$7.08 versus a price of R$10.29, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GOAU3?
Our model-based fair value for Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is R$7.08 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$10.29.
What is the quality score of GOAU3?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$7.08 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$5.31, optimistic scenario R$8.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metalurgica Gerdau S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$7.08, about −31% upside versus a price of R$10.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$5.31, optimistic scenario R$8.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$69.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Metalurgica Gerdau S.A pay a dividend?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.72% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metalurgica Gerdau S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +16.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GOAU3 use?
Our models discount Metalurgica Gerdau S.A at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metalurgica Gerdau S.A that is +16.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metalurgica Gerdau S.A grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +16.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (+16.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.69 %: that much free cash flow Metalurgica Gerdau S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metalurgica Gerdau S.A it is R$7.08 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of R$10.29. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metalurgica Gerdau S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, GOAU3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$10.29, fair value R$7.08, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GOAU3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$10.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$7.08). For Metalurgica Gerdau S.A the two are R$3.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metalurgica Gerdau S.A worth?
The market values Metalurgica Gerdau S.A at about R$13.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is R$10.29; our models calculate a fair value of R$7.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GOAU3?
Our models span a range for Metalurgica Gerdau S.A: cautious scenario R$5.31, base R$7.08, optimistic R$8.85 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price R$10.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GOAU3?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$7.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GOAU3?
The PEG ratio of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is 0.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GOAU3 from its 52-week high?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A trades at R$10.29, about 2% below its 52-week high of R$10.50 and 45% above the low of R$7.11 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$7.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metalurgica Gerdau S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metalurgica Gerdau S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price R$10.29, calculated fair value R$7.08 (−31%), Quality Score 43/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GOAU3 calculated?
We run Metalurgica Gerdau S.A through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$7.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was R$10.29. Our model-based fair value is R$7.08, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metalurgica Gerdau S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$8.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The market capitalisation of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is R$13.6B (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Earnings per share at Metalurgica Gerdau S.A are R$0.6000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The dividend yield of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is 3.7% (payout 63.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The net margin of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is 16.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
The operating margin of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Revenue at Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Earnings per share at Metalurgica Gerdau S.A are growing +73.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) carry?
The net debt of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is R$10.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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