Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Gränges AB (publ) SEK 162, price SEK 183, upside -11.2%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 64.95 – kr 195.20 · fair‑value band kr 83.33 – kr 202.48 · the kr 182.50 price screens above the kr 161.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Gränges AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, production, and distribution of rolled aluminum products in the Americas, Asia, and Europe. The company offers clad and unclad rolled aluminum products under the Gränges Endure brand name.
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Gränges AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, production, and distribution of rolled aluminum products in the Americas, Asia, and Europe. The company offers clad and unclad rolled aluminum products under the Gränges Endure brand name. It serves the automotive HEX, HVAC, specialty packaging, electrification and battery, industrial, and powder metallurgy industries. The company was formerly known as Sapa AB and changed its name to Gränges AB (publ) in April 2013. Gränges AB (publ) was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG) currently trades at kr 182.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 161.98, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 195.97 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 182.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 61.07, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 83.33 (bear) to kr 202.48 (bull), the price of kr 182.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gränges AB (publ) reported revenue of 28.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 18.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B SEK in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.4B SEK (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) kr 11.29 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −11%, GRNG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 83.33Fair Value kr 161.98Bull kr 202.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 5.77 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.3% a year for the price and +10.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−11% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth39% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gränges AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRNG
Frequently asked questions
Is Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 161.98 versus a price of kr 182.50, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRNG?
Our model-based fair value for Gränges AB (publ) is kr 161.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 182.50.
What is the quality score of GRNG?
Gränges AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 161.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 83.33, optimistic scenario kr 202.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gränges AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 161.98, about −11% upside versus a price of kr 182.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 83.33, optimistic scenario kr 202.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
Gränges AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 32.1B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gränges AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Gränges AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gränges AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +39.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRNG use?
Our models discount Gränges AB (publ) at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gränges AB (publ) that is +39.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gränges AB (publ) grew +20.8 % a year. The price currently implies +39.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gränges AB (publ) (+39.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.58 %: that much free cash flow Gränges AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gränges AB (publ) it is kr 161.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 182.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gränges AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GRNG trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 182.50, fair value kr 161.98, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRNG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 182.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 161.98). For Gränges AB (publ) the two are kr 20.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gränges AB (publ) worth?
The market values Gränges AB (publ) at about 19.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 182.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 161.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRNG?
Our models span a range for Gränges AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 83.33, base kr 161.98, optimistic kr 202.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 182.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRNG?
Gränges AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 161.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of GRNG?
The PEG ratio of Gränges AB (publ) is 1.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gränges AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRNG from its 52-week high?
Gränges AB (publ) trades at kr 182.50, about 7% below its 52-week high of kr 195.20 and 61% above the low of kr 113.21 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 161.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gränges AB (publ)?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gränges AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 182.50, calculated fair value kr 161.98 (−11%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRNG calculated?
We run Gränges AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 161.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gränges AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 182.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 161.98, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gränges AB (publ) right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 83.33 to kr 202.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG) come from?
Earnings per share at Gränges AB (publ) grew +8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin −3.6 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gränges AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The market capitalisation of Gränges AB (publ) is 19.4B SEK (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gränges AB (publ) is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
Earnings per share at Gränges AB (publ) are kr 11.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The dividend yield of Gränges AB (publ) is 1.9% (payout 30.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The net margin of Gränges AB (publ) is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gränges AB (publ) is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gränges AB (publ) is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
The operating margin of Gränges AB (publ) is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
Revenue at Gränges AB (publ) is growing +38.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG)?
Earnings per share at Gränges AB (publ) are growing +42.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG) carry?
The net debt of Gränges AB (publ) is 4.3B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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