Guidewire Software, Inc (GWRE) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $11.3B
Guidewire Software, Inc
GWRE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $14.02 to $14.25 (+1.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +16.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 91% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.65 – $261.88 · fair‑value band $11.50 – $17.82 · the $160.03 price screens above the $14.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Guidewire Software, Inc (GWRE) currently trades at $160.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.25, implying the stock looks roughly 91.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guidewire Software, Inc generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of 11.3%. Revenue grew 26.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at $16.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.50 (bear case) to $17.82 (bull case); at $160.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -91%, GWRE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($35.07) versus Economic Profit ($5.23). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guidewire Software, Inc. provides a platform for property and casualty (P&C) insurers worldwide. It offers Guidewire InsuranceSuite, such as PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter, and BillingCenter applications.
Full company description
Guidewire Software, Inc. provides a platform for property and casualty (P&C) insurers worldwide. It offers Guidewire InsuranceSuite, such as PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter, and BillingCenter applications. The company also provides Guidewire InsuranceNow, a cloud-based application that offers policy administration, claims management, and billing functionality, plus pre-integrated document production, analytics, and other capabilities. In addition, it offers Guidewire Rating Management to manage the pricing of insurance products; Guidewire Reinsurance Management to use rules-based logic to execute reinsurance strategy through underwriting and claims processes; Guidewire Client Data Management that helps P&C insurers to capitalize on customer information; Guidewire Advanced Product Designer, a cloud-native application for insurance product design and management; Guidewire Product Content Management provides software tools and standards-based, line-of-business templates. Further, the company provides Guidewire Digital Engagement Applications, which enable insurers to provide digital experiences; Guidewire Predict, a P&C-specific machine-learning platform; Guidewire HazardHub that allows insurers to understand, assess, price, and manage property risk; Guidewire Canvas, Guidewire Compare, Guidewire industry Intel, Guidewire Data Studio, and Guidewire Explore, an cloud-native applications; Guidewire Cyence, a cyber-risk economic modeling product; Guidewire DataHub, an operational data store; and Guidewire InfoCenter, a business intelligence warehouse for P&C insurers . The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guidewire Software, Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $743M in FY2021, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was $69.8M in FY2025.
GWRE screens 91% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Asana, Snowflake, Atlassian, Guidewire Software, and Adobe Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- Guidewire Introduces Qusar Release to Help Insurers Build and Control AI Agents
- Guidewire Software and monday.com Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- Guidewire Software (GWRE) Remains Well Positioned Despite AI Growth Concerns
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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