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Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd A$3.72, price A$25.05, upside -85.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · AU

GY Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd

GYG · AU

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$3.72 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +39.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.80% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$44.91 A$15.20 Fair Value A$3.72 Jun 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

27‑month range A$15.20 – A$44.91 · fair‑value band A$3.34 – A$4.10 · the A$25.05 price screens above the A$3.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Guzman y Gomez Limited operates and manages quick service restaurants in Australia, Singapore, Japan, and the United States. Its restaurants offer Mexican-inspired food through a chain of quick service restaurants, as well as drive thru, delivery, digital channels, strip, and drive thru formats.

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Guzman y Gomez Limited operates and manages quick service restaurants in Australia, Singapore, Japan, and the United States. Its restaurants offer Mexican-inspired food through a chain of quick service restaurants, as well as drive thru, delivery, digital channels, strip, and drive thru formats. The company also manages a franchise network of quick service restaurants. Guzman y Gomez Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Surry Hills, Australia.

Stock analysis

Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) currently trades at A$25.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.72, implying the stock looks roughly 572.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$6.76 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$25.05 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.56, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$3.34 (bear) to A$4.10 (bull), the price of A$25.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd reported revenue of A$465M in FY2025 versus A$120M in FY2021, a compound +40.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$14.5M in FY2025, compounding +38.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap A$2.6B (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 147.4 · P/S ratio 4.59 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1700 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −85%, GYG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$3.34 Fair Value A$3.72 Bull A$4.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV A$3.84 A$4.00 A$4.13 74
EV/EBITDA A$8.41 A$10.27 A$12.13 67
ROIC Compounder A$3.86 A$4.27 A$4.67 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.9900 A$6.90 A$9.68 59
Lynch FV A$3.56 A$5.09 A$6.62 57
PEG = 1.0 A$3.56 A$5.09 A$6.62 53
EPV A$3.84 A$4.00 A$4.13 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$2.40 A$3.20 A$4.00 63
P/S Multiple A$1.85 A$2.47 A$3.09 58
P/B Multiple A$1.85 A$2.47 A$3.09 55
EV/EBIT A$5.82 A$6.82 A$7.82 66
EV/EBITDA A$8.41 A$10.27 A$12.13 67
EV/Revenue A$4.85 A$5.71 A$6.57 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$1.91 A$2.56 A$3.82 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$2.79 A$2.73 A$2.38 66
ROIC Compounder A$3.86 A$4.27 A$4.67 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$4.73 A$6.76 A$8.79 63

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 96
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 13
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 35
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%

GYG screens 573% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 228 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 147.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.61× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 29.2× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 18
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)16 · sector 70

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD $250.35 $162.16 −35%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $95.11 $35.83 −62%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $32.63 $35.89 +10%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $139.71 $75.61 −46%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $71.91 $74.72 +4%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $213.54 $173.68 −19%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $41.58 $49.95 +20%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $166.12 $128.38 −23%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $38.76 $15.54 −60%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $297.12 $231.96 −22%

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A$3.72 −573%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GYG

Frequently asked questions

Is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.72 versus a price of A$25.05, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GYG?
Our model-based fair value for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is A$3.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$25.05.
What is the quality score of GYG?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.34, optimistic scenario A$4.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.72, about −85% upside versus a price of A$25.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.34, optimistic scenario A$4.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$516M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd pay a dividend?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd it is A$3.72 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$25.05. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GYG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$25.05, fair value A$3.72, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GYG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$25.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.72). For Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd the two are A$21.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd worth?
The market values Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd at about A$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$25.05; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GYG?
Our models span a range for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.34, base A$3.72, optimistic A$4.10 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$25.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GYG?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 147.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.9, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 29.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GYG from its 52-week high?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd trades at A$25.05, about 17% below its 52-week high of A$30.06 and 65% above the low of A$15.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$25.05, calculated fair value A$3.72 (−85%), Quality Score 48/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GYG calculated?
We run Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$25.05. Our model-based fair value is A$3.72, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The market capitalisation of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is A$2.6B (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 4.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Earnings per share at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd are A$0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 147.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The dividend yield of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 0.8% (payout 118%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The net margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The operating margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Revenue at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +39.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Earnings per share at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd are growing +46.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) generate?
The free cash flow of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is −A$4.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) carry?
The net debt of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is A$49.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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