Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd stock A$11.62, price A$26.12, that is 55.5% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range A$14.96 – A$44.20 · fair‑value band A$7.40 – A$18.78 · the A$26.12 price screens above the A$11.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Guzman y Gomez Limited operates and manages quick service restaurants in Australia, Singapore, Japan, and the United States. Its restaurants offer Mexican-inspired food through a chain of quick service restaurants, as well as drive thru, delivery, digital channels, strip, and drive thru formats.
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The company also manages a franchise network of quick service restaurants. Guzman y Gomez Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Surry Hills, Australia.
Stock analysis
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) currently trades at A$26.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$11.62, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$12.51 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$26.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.51, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$7.40 (bear) to A$18.78 (bull), the price of A$26.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd reported revenue of A$520M in FY2026 versus A$172M in FY2022, a compound +31.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$26.7M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.6B (≈ $1.8B) Small · P/S ratio 4.71 · EPS (TTM) A$0.4000 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin −5.1% · Return on equity 13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −56%, GYG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$7.40Fair Value A$11.62BullA$18.78
Price A$26.12 · Downside -55.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0230 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.9% (2021) → 16.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.8% a year for the price and +13.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−55.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.0% · Above median
Return on assets−3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−4.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GYG
Frequently asked questions
Is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$11.62 versus a price of A$26.12, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GYG?
Our model-based fair value for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is A$11.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$26.12.
What is the quality score of GYG?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$11.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$7.40, optimistic scenario A$18.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$11.62, about 56% lower versus a price of A$26.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$7.40, optimistic scenario A$18.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$552M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd pay a dividend?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.336 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. The payout ratio is 84.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.90 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +40.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GYG use?
Our models discount Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd that is +40.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd grew +34.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +40.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (+40.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.16 %: that much free cash flow Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd it is A$11.62 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$26.12. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GYG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$26.12, fair value A$11.62, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GYG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$26.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$11.62). For Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd the two are A$14.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd worth?
The market values Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd at about A$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$26.12; our models calculate a fair value of A$11.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GYG?
Our models span a range for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd: cautious scenario A$7.40, base A$11.62, optimistic A$18.78 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$26.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GYG from its 52-week high?
Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd trades at A$26.12, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$29.59 and 75% above the low of A$14.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$11.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$26.12, calculated fair value A$11.62 (−56%), Quality Score 41/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GYG calculated?
We run Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$11.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$26.12. Our model-based fair value is A$11.62, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$18.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$7.40 to A$18.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The market capitalisation of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is A$2.6B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 4.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Earnings per share at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd are A$0.4000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The dividend yield of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 1.3% (payout 84.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The net margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is −5.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
The operating margin of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Revenue at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG)?
Earnings per share at Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd are growing +46.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd (GYG) carry?
The net debt of Guzman Y GOMEZ Ltd is A$365M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 12.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026